89 Seconds to Midnight
India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, are inching towards war. It's a trend in an increasingly chaotic world. Let's turn back the clock on global catastrophe.
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In 1947, a group of scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project, which produced the first nuclear weapon, published a clock that shows how close the world is to global catastrophe. Called the Doomsday Clock, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has kept track of how close the world is to global catastrophe. One of the original scientists noted:
The Bulletin’s Clock is not a gauge to register the ups and downs of the international power struggle; it is intended to reflect basic changes in the level of continuous danger in which mankind lives in the nuclear age.
Originally set at 7 minutes to midnight, with midnight marking doom, it has been set forward and back for the past several decades. In 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, it went back to 17 minutes to midnight—the safest the world has been. Today, taking into account not only nuclear proliferation but also climate change and artificial intelligence, the clock stands at 89 seconds to midnight—the closest to catastrophe it’s ever been.
That’s been on my mind as tensions between India and Pakistan heat up. Last month, a Pakistani gunman assassinated two dozen Indian tourists in the contested territory of Kashmir. This week, India retaliated, bombing targets in Pakistan.
Kashmir is in the Himalayan mountains, just north of India and east of Pakistan. When the two countries declared independence from Great Britain, interestingly in 1947, Kashmir, with a Muslim majority, opted to be a part of India, as this BBC piece explains. War ensued, with the UN intervening and brokering a ceasefire. It divided the region. But that did not prevent future conflicts.
India and Pakistan went to war over Kashmir in 1965 and 1999. In 2016, Indian soldiers died in targeted attacks. In 2019, a bombing left 40 Indian soldiers dead. Following that incident, Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, revoked the region’s special status, which had been under limited autonomy, and launched a security crackdown.
While the two countries have walked back from the brink over the past decade, experts on the region have noted that “this time is different.” That’s what Meher Ahmad wrote in the NYT this week, noting that the bombs India dropped this week, in retaliation to last month’s terrorist act, weren’t in the “middle of the woods, but near major population hubs.” The strikes may not merely be symbolic, but an indication that India, at least, is willing to raise the stakes.
India is not only a bigger country than Pakistan, it is economically and militarily so. Especially since the US pulled out of Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has been left bereft. The Economist notes, “(o)nce Western presidents and prime ministers had to indulge, humour, bribe and threaten Pakistan in order to ensure its half-co-operation. Now they more often ignore it.”
That is bad news. The country has always been dysfunctional. As I wrote in my book From the Otherside of the World: Extraordinary Entrepreneurs, Unlikely Places, “(n)o Pakistani government has shown itself capable of running the country since its birth in 1947. That’s still true, only today, the country is in economic free fall. A weakened Pakistan doesn’t mean a pacified one. On the contrary, history shows that when cornered politically or economically, leaders often turned to military provocations—not to win, but to distract—and change the narrative.
In a TED talk in 2010, Joe Nye, the foreign policy titan who passed away this week, noted that narrative is the name of today’s complicated geopolitical game. Father of the term “soft power,” he said,
“If we want to understand power in the 21st century, it’s not just prevailing at war…. It’s not whose army wins. It’s whose story wins….We have to think much more in terms of narratives and whose narrative is going to be effective.”
Right now, the prevailing narrative around the globe is jingoistic. Cooperation is out. Force is in. That’s not only put the news cycle into overdrive, it’s amped up global dissonance. Act now, think later. As the Doomsday Clock ticks closer to midnight, there’s an urgency to reverse course—and shift the story. The same forces that drive fear can be redirected toward dialogue, restraint, and rebuilding trust. Midnight isn’t inevitable. Not if we choose a different narrative—in time. — Elmira
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
India-Pakistan
Leoni Connah lays out the timeline of what's happened between India and Pakistan so far. (The Interpreter)
As tensions between India and Pakistan escalate, the US should tread carefully, writes Manjari Chatterjee Miller. Washington doesn’t want to risk its partnership with India. But with China in Pakistan’s corner, the White House can’t afford to be picking sides. (CFR)
Victory Day
In Moscow, Vladimir Putin is hosting a Victory Day celebration, celebrating Germany’s defeat in World War II. China’s Xi Jinping is a featured guest. China and Russia have formed a “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” alliance against the US. But that partnership, particularly for China, is clashing with its desire to be a responsible world leader, writes Patricia Kim. (Brookings)
German drama
Tuesday’s vote to anoint Friedrich Merz as Germany’s Chancellor should have been straightforward. He fell short of the majority in the first round, sending shockwaves through the country—and Europe. While he did pull it off in the second round, it seems he doesn’t have an enthusiastic backing to lead, which only weakens him—and, as Ana Vračar, notes that the mainstream are “not in a position to promise protections from dangers posed by the far right.” (Savage Minds)
It can happen here
Anastasiia Vorozhtsova attended undergrad at Smolny College in St. Petersburg, which had a partnership with Bard College, where I teach. In 2021, Putin designated the school “persona non grata” and blacklisted Bard, which decimated the institution. As she finishes up an MFA at Columbia this week, she writes about that experience and the parallels of what she’s witnessed in Morningside Heights. (The Atlantic)
Anastasiia was my student in 2018 where I was able to spot her brilliance and writing talent. #ProudProfessor
US
The US will stop bombing the Houthis in Yemen. This follows a Houthi attack on Israel last Sunday. Israel seems to be caught off guard with the decision. But with Trump headed to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar next week, the US president is eager to calm tensions, writes Annelle Sheline. (Responsible Statecraft)
Donald Trump heads to the Gulf next week. He’s already announced the renaming of the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Gulf. He’ll also focus on Gaza, economic ties, and Iran, writes Jihan Abdalla. (The National)
A UAE firm has poured $2 billion into Trump’s crypo venture.
Also, I thought this was hilarious.
A US citizen is stuck in Iran with her 3-year-old, while the Trump administration vets the toddler, for national security concerns, writes Cristina Maza. (National Journal)
Honestly, you can’t make this stuff up.
The Trump administration has ordered the review of communications between government staff working on disinformation and public and private officials. Nina Jankowicz is on that list. She explains what this is, who Darren Beattie, the acting Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy is, and why all of this is a charade. (Wiczpedia)
Africa
The annual renewal of the UN arms embargo on South Sudan comes up for a vote in May. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Maya Ungar warns that ending the mandate entirely would risk fuelling a return to civil war in the country. (Crisis Group)
The Americas
Canada’s new prime minister called on Donald Trump at the White House this week, tactfully noting that his country was not for sale. But, as Nia Malika-Henderson notes, Trump doesn’t get it. With the excellent headline: “Sorry America, Canada’s Just Not That Into You.” (Bloomberg)
As gang violence cripples many countries in South America, it’s time for leaders in the region to create a regional security body, much like NATO, write Ana Janaina Nelson and Ben Gedan. (Americas Quarterly)
The Trump administration has designated Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. This enables the US to order a military strike in Mexico—to kill a cartel kingpin or destroy a fentanyl lab. What happens after that? Annie Pforzheimer considers the possibilities. (The Steady State)
Middle East
Following Assad’s fall in Syria, Israel has gone into southern Syria. That’s had devastating effects, writes Natacha Danon. (New Lines)
It’s really hard to find any good news out of Gaza. Reading that Pope Francis’s Popemobile will become a health clinic for children brings a smile, along with a byline from Dalia Abdelwahab and Sharon Braithwaite. (CNN)
The World Central Kitchen has suspended operations in Gaza this week, as Israel has blocked aid from entering the region. Israel has tightly controlled the type of food that goes in and out of Gaza since the start of the war. It has prevented food and medicine from coming into Gaza for the past two months. Aya al-Hattab on that experience.(Guardian)
Europe
Last week’s Ukraine minerals deal does indeed give the US privileged access to Ukrainian resources. But that’s a win for Zelensky, write Eve Warburton and Olga Boichack. (The Conversation)
Last Sunday, in a re-run election in Romania—re-run after the country’s court determined Russia had interfered in the first go—a far right candidate, George Simion, won 41 percent of the vote. Simion will now face off in a second round on May 18. If he wins, Romania is likely to turn away from Ukraine—and Europe, writes Alison Mutler. (CEPA)
The right is on the rise in Europe. Can the left fend them off? Katrina vanden Heuvel and Robert Borosage discuss. (The Nation)
Under the Radar
Can Brazil save multilateralism? Natalie Samarasinghe and Giovanna Kuele see its potential under Lula. (World Politics Review)
Opportunities
The National Partnership for Women and Families is hiring for a Vice President of Health Justice.
The Carter Center is hiring for a Vice President for its Overseas Operations.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief