After... and Before

November 10, 2023 - What comes after Hamas?

Nov 10, 2023

Feliz cumpleaños dear Ivana!

✨ Happy Diwali ✨

Congrats to long time Interruptr readers Kelsey Mullen and Sophia Pugsley. Both won a copy of Leta Hong Fincher’s 10th anniversary edition of Leftover Women.

And on this Veterans Day, a heartfelt appreciation for the men and women who serve and who sacrifice much to defend our nation.

Following the horrific terrorist attacks in Israel on October 7, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, vowed to destroy Hamas. Considering that Hamas political leaders are scattered outside Gaza and its military leaders exist in a complex network of underground tunnels, what Netanyahu would consider a victory is unclear.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have bombarded Gaza with missiles and sent ground troops into the occupied territory. More than 10,000 Palestinians have been killed thus far, 4,000 of whom are children. Palestinians are currently without electricity and fuel. According to UNICEF, there are only three liters of water for each Palestinian. The World Health Organization fears the spread of infectious diseases, particularly diarrhea.

There have been calls for a ceasefire or, what the White House calls, a “humanitarian pause.” (I’m not sure how that is different from a ceasefire, to be honest.) Netanyahu has said he would not consider a ceasefire until all the hostages are released. (As of this morning 11/10, Israel will allow short four hour pauses to allow people to flee.)

This week, Netanyahu told a reporter that Israel would have to indefinitely oversee security over Gaza. That prompted a strong reaction, particularly from the Biden White House, which said that there would be no “reoccupation of Gaza.” Netanyahu’s people have walked that back to say that Israelis would not govern Gaza. Who does? That was the question that dominated headlines this week.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has floated the idea that a “multinational” force could oversee Gaza. If he’s hoping the Arab states will step up to do the job, the cold shoulder he received in the region recently should be an indication that that is a non-starter. There is no Arab state that will agree to replace Israel militarily.

That’s similar to what Blinken heard from Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas when he posed the prospect of the PA returning to Gaza. Abbas noted that the PA would only go back to Gaza once there was a political solution that ended the occupation altogether. Keeping in mind his unpopularity, there is also the issue of whether the Palestinians would approve of him doing so.

"If the Israelis succeed in crushing Hamas, I think it’s going to be extremely difficult to get a governing structure in there that is going to be legitimate and functional," said Aaron David Miller, a former US Middle East negotiator.

"The 'day after' exercises right now strike me as fantastical," Miller said. Yup.

It is hard to consider what the “day after” looks like in Gaza, when the day before October 7 provided little promise. Since the end of the second intifada, in 2005, and the rise of the Israel right-wing, first with Ariel Sharon and then with Benjamin Netanyahu, the prospects for a two-state solution and the creation of a Palestinian homeland have been essentially abandoned. In its place, Palestinians have faced the expansion of illegal settlements in the West Bank. In both Gaza and the West Bank, violence is a daily part of Palestinian life. They do not have the freedom of movement and are subjected to humiliating security checks on a regular basis.

The Biden administration is shuttling back and forth to Israel. In addition to Blinken, CIA Director Bill Burns paid a visit this week. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has made several trips. All are working to support Israel’s response, while at the same time encouraging diplomacy and focusing on a resolution. That is hard when none are calling for a ceasefire. That will have consequences, both for Israel and the US, at home and globally.

Gauging from America’s own “War on Terror,” which failed to defeat Al Qaeda and global terrorism, it is unlikely that Netanyahu will destroy Hamas. In fact, there is the risk that he makes it or whatever comes after it stronger. ISIS and Hezbollah are case in point.

Given the scale of Israel’s assault on Gaza, Netanyahu might very well defeat Hamas and still lose, not only personally but for the Israeli public. The goal of eliminating Hamas is understandable. What Hamas did on October 7, which included 1400 civilian murders, rape of women, and kidnapping about 200 people, including children, was unconscionable and constituted war crimes. Yet, Israel’s long term success depends not on revenge but reconciliation with the Palestinian people. Reconciliation was the impetus behind the country’s normalization with Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and UAE. Before October 7, it seemed Israel would normalize with Saudi Arabia. Peace is possible.

For the US, its inability to stop Netanyahu’s overreach has already had consequences domestically. Within the Biden administration there are many who are angry at his response. Many Muslim Americans have lost confidence in him.

Internationally, the US will contend with credibility. Joe Biden ascended the presidency vowing to restore American leadership and the fight for democracy. The trouble has been that American selectivity in what it will stand for and defend — I’ll go out on a limb and call it hypocrisy — has tarnished Washington’s standing in the world. Human rights and international law are absolute. Sadly, too many administrations in Washington have treated it as a tagline. — Elmira

On our radar...

Gender is synonymous with women. If we are serious about getting to equality, at least in foreign policy and conflict resolution circles, it is vital that we engage men and masculinity. Narratives of masculine strength and superiority are used to justify violence against women and participation Kristine Baekgaard, Robert Nagel, and Joshua Allen explain in this report that the future of women, peace, and security work must include men and the role of masculinity. (Georgetown Institute of Women Peace and Security)

With authoritarianism on the rise worldwide, Ayisha Osori and Udo Jude Ilo discuss the decline of liberal democracy and advocate for universally accepted democratic principles. (African Arguments)

APEC Summit

Next Tuesday, leaders from 21 countries across the Asia Pacific will gather in San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. China’s Xi Jinping and US President Biden are expected to meet. That’s a big deal. The two have only met in person once since Biden took office, last year at the G20 Summit in Bali. Given the enormous economic interests between the US and China and growing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, Joe Biden would no doubt like to focus his attention on this. Colleen Cottle on ways the US president can maximize his conversation with China’s leader. (Atlantic Council)

Israel-Palestine

Here is a stunning stat: in the current Israeli bombardment of Gaza, a Palestinian child is murdered every 15 minutes. With the failure to support a ceasefire, Feryal Awan and Rachel Rosen note that the West is legitimizing a ‘war on children.’ (Middle East Eye)
The UN Security Council was created to prevent wars and protect people. As the US uses its veto power to refrain from condemning Israel’s actions and call for a ceasefire, Rasna Warah asks, what is the UNSC for? (Africa is a Country)
Israel’s military confrontation with the Gaza Strip has left many of us, even the experts, wondering, what does the future hold for this conflict? Muriel Asseburg and René Wildangel think about five different possibilities. (Middle East Institute)

President Biden appears to be softening the US stance on the Taliban, writes Annie Pforzheimer. (WPR)

The House of Representatives censured Rashida Tlaib (D-Mi). Li Zhou explains why. (Vox)

While we should all celebrate the Ohio vote protecting a woman’s right to chose, let’s not be blind to the fact that Republicans may still be able to sabotage it, writes Mary Zeigler. (Slate)

Africa

Time and time again, children bear the brunt of displacement, disease, loss, and traumas that come with war, and now Sudan is facing the possibility of a lost generation. It’s time that the international community prioritize children in war, argue Hiba Alamin, Hafeez Abdelhafeez, and Abdallah Tom, NOW. (Just Security)

Fashion in Africa is booming. Louise Donovan on how this could be a major win for women in the workforce. (Fuller Project)

The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has displaced nearly 7 million. Michelle Gavin gives context to this staggering number and the lack of attention it’s received. (CFR)

Asia

Here’s another significant meet-up: Australia’s prime minister traveled to Beijing last weekend — the first in seven years. Much has been made about the visit between the “frenemies.” Both need one another, even if they don’t see eye-to-eye on issues. Daniela Gavshon recommends that Albanese, the Australian PM, use the visit to confront China’s human rights abuses. (Human Rights Watch)

This is interesting and not surprising. Japan is upping its defense game. The country has rolled out a new security aid program for countries that need assistance with defense equipment or infrastructure — such as the Philippines. To ensure the program succeeds, Rena Sasaki lays out three issues the Japanese government needs to address. (Nikkei Asia)

In Myanmar, following an offensive resistance launched in the north against the country’s military government, China dispatched envoys to intercede. Myanmar is an important country for Beijing, so Chinese diplomats are keen on not taking sides and diffusing the situation, writes Josphine Ma. (South China Morning Post)

The Americas

In Chile, the Constitutional Council approved a new proposal for a new constitution. The previous one failed in a country wide referendum. Chileans will now be required to vote yes or no on this latest version on December 17. Antonia Laborde provides more details. (El Pais)

We’ve previously mentioned that the recent primary vote in Venezuela catapulted María Corina Machado as opposition leader. Yet, the country’s supreme court suspended those results last week. Will she be allowed to run? If she is, can she seat the incumbent Maduro? Julia Buxton is skeptical that she’ll be in the running and that any outside country can help influence her inclusion. (The Dialogue)

Peru’s youth are packing their bags. Andrea Moncada on how political chaos and economic downturn are driving young Peruvians out of the country. (Americas Quarterly)

Europe

Portugal made headlines this week, after the country’s prime minister suddenly resigned amid corruption allegations. Catarina Demony and Andrei Khalip on what comes next - will there be snap elections or does the president ask the majority socialist party to form a new government? (Reuters)

This week, the European Commission recommended that the Council (all these EU bodies are confusing if you ask us) start accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Once, of course, both finalize necessary reforms. (There’s always a catch). Mared Gwyn Jones reports. (Euronews)

Voter turnout was high in Poland's recent elections, with increased participation of women and young people. That’s because of a vibrant civil society, writes Patrice McMahon. (The Conversation)

Two recent elections in Europe, in Poland and Slovakia, yielded two different results. What does that mean for the European Union and the ongoing war in Ukraine? Molly O'Neal examines. (Responsible Statecraft)

Middle East

In Turkey last weekend, there was a political earthquake. The opposition party, the Republic People’s Party, ousted its leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who had ruled for 13 years. This never happens in Turkey. What comes next? Dilara Aslan Ozer discusses. (Daily Sabah)

The crisis in Gaza demonstrates how quickly a protracted conflict can escalate. This is concerning for Yemen, where faltering peace talks have largely frozen fighting, but a de facto truce has yielded little progress since it took effect in April 2022. Saudi Arabia would like to see a peace agreement with the Iran-backed Houthis, but without UN involvement. That’s a mistake, says Veena Ali-Khan and argues that sidestepping the international body would only guarantee future violence and instability. (Foreign Policy)

Technology

One of the things Biden’s executive order on AI put into focus: civil rights. Margaret Hu on rights and equity concerns that emerging technologies present. (The Conversation)

China’s involvement in the UK AI Safety Summit was significant, especially as US-China tensions are on the rise. Anna Gordon and Will Henshall explain. (Time)

Still standing guard at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, even in a storm. (via 1440)
On November 10, at 9:05am, Turks pause to honor the country’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Izindeyiz.
Having trouble falling asleep? Here is a podcast that helps you understand the science behind sleeping! 😴
Serena Williams was named Fashion Icon award at the CFDA Fashion Awards this week – she’s the first athlete to receive the award.
The 2024 Met Gala theme was announced this week – “Sleeping Beauties: Reawakening Fashion.” For all you need to know about the theme, read this.
Hindus celebrate Diwali this weekend, the festival of lights. What is it? This explainer dives in.
Speech has clashed with sensitivity regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Israeli government asked Bard College to cancel the class, Apartheid in Israel-Palestine. The college refused. 👊 (The Guardian)

Opportunities

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is seeking applicants for its 2024–25 Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship.

The Guardian is hiring a newsletter writer. (We love newsletter writers).

Harvard has a posting for a Managing Director, University Communications.

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Editorial Team

Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief

Editors:

Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Maya Scott
Emily Smith