Boots in LA, Bombs in Iran
We started the week with the National Guard in LA and are ending it with Israeli strikes on Iran. Another bad week.
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We started the week with the National Guard in LA, militarizing immigration enforcement. I did sit down with Maggie Mitchell Salem, Executive Director of IRIS, about what’s happening. Video below.
I had a sneaking suspicion, however, that we’d end it with Iran.
On Wednesday, June 11, the US began evacuating non-essential staff from its embassy in Baghdad and authorizing the departure of personnel and family from Bahrain and Kuwait. President Trump explained that “they are being moved out, because it could be a dangerous place, and we’ll see what happens.”
A PR genius, yes. Master orator, no.
Then on Thursday, June 12, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, said that Iran’s failure to provide it with answers regarding its nuclear activities and stockpiles of enriched uranium, which can be used to make a weapon put it in “breach of its non-proliferation obligations” for the first time in 20 years.
There had been reports that Israel was preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. It struck last night, early Iran time on June 13, targeting military sites. According to AP, two top military officers have been killed, “raising the prospect of an all-out war between the two bitter Middle East adversaries.”
The Netanyahu government has long said that a nuclear-capable Iran is a great threat to Israel and the region and that all its nuclear activities should be stopped. That’s a popular position among many Republicans—and Democrats. I’m looking at you Chuck Schumer.
This week Rachael Bade and Felicia Schwartz reported that
An influential group of GOP hawks has launched a behind-the-scenes lobbying offensive pressing President Donald Trump to not only back off his administration’s quest for a nuclear deal with Iran, but greenlight an attack on Tehran by Israel.
It’s being led by some conservative talk show host I’d never heard of named Mark Levin (which is close enough to the name of the Manhattan Borough President, so imagine my confusion)... He and Rupert Murdoch have been attacking Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has been engaging with the Iranians over the past few weeks. So is it a coincidence that JD Vance called on Newscorp titan Murdoch and son in Montana this week? Vance has been outspoken about the US getting out of global conflicts.
This week, Trump said that a deal with Iran was increasingly looking unlikely—not something he would have expected when he restarted talks with Tehran’s leaders in early April (while Netanyahu was sitting next to him in the White House). Given the numerous setbacks Iran faced over the past year, Hezbollah’s decapitation, Assad’s ousting in Syria, and rising inflation, Trump sensed that Iran, weakened, would be willing to agree to a deal—and give him a much coveted foreign policy win.
It is unclear what impact Israel’s attacks will have on Iran’s nuclear capabilities. In the NYT, David Sanger writes:
If the program is delayed only a year or two, it may look as if Israel has taken a huge risk for a fairly short-term delay. And among those risks is not only the possibility of a long-lasting war, but also that Iran will withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, take its program underground, and race for a weapon — exactly the outcome Mr. Netanyahu was out to prevent.
On Friday morning, June 13, Iran said that Israel—and the US—will pay a “heavy price” for these attacks. That could widen the war in the Middle East, giving Trump another foreign policy failure. Trump has been unable to stop Russia’s continued aggression on Ukraine and Netanyahu’s gruesome bombardment of Gaza.
Attacking Iran benefits Netanyahu. This week, he survived a vote that would have dissolved parliament and forced elections, which polls show he would lose. War is a classic tactic to stay in power—silences the opposition, gets people to rally around the flag, and projects “strength.”
This morning, June 13, Trump urged Iran to reach a nuclear deal with the US, warning that attacks “will only get worse!” Because he can’t resist the exclamation point.
From where I sit, it seems unlikely that Iran will back down. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had brushed aside US pressure to stop enrichment. Within hours of the Israeli strike, Iran hurled more than 100 drones toward Israel. The latest development only sharpens Iran’s resolve to safeguard the Islamic Republic they have spent four decades building—and to prove that, battered or not, the revolution still has fight left in it. And that is bad news for all of us. —Elmira
ICE raids and Immigration: WTF?
This week we saw the Trump administration deploy the National Guard to protect ICE, who have been tasked with carrying out raids and deportations. How did we get here? What exactly is ICE doing? And why can’t we solve the immigration question? I called Maggie Mitchell Salem, Executive Director of the Integrated Refugee & Immigrant Services (IRIS) to help me understand. Here’s our conversation:
If you’re curious about where else a country’s executive has deployed the military on its own people:
China – Tiananmen Square, 1989
Russia – Second Chechen War, Grozny siege, 1999‑2000
Syria – During the Arab uprisings, 2011
Egypt – At protests in Cairo in support of Mohamed Morsi, 2013
Sudan – The first uprisings against Omar Bashir in Khartoum, 2019
Nigeria – Uprisings against police brutality in Lagos, 2020
Myanmar (Burma) – nationwide protests, 2021
Iran – Mahsa Amini protest wave, 2022
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
ICE raids
What legal authorities did Trump invoke to authorize military deployment? Elizabeth Goitein lays out the details. (Just Security)
Trump is pushing civil-military relations—or rather the conscious division of the two—to its limits. Carrie Lee lays out what has happened since Trump deployed 2000 National Guard on Saturday, the fact that the US president has NOT yet invoked the Insurrection Act, and calls for Congress to DO ITS JOB. (World Politics Review)
Listen: By all accounts the protests in LA were largely peaceful. Still, Trump did not want them to take place. Can democracy exist without protest? Vanessa Williamson and Katie Dunn Tenpas discuss. (Brookings)
What happened to the breakup?
Last week Trump and Musk broke up. This week Musk said he had “gone too far” in his criticism of Trump and his “big beautiful bill.” That still wasn’t enough to trump the main headline of the week: the National Guard in LA. The reason Musk capitulated is caught up in the LA chaos: Trump controls the narrative, writes Gaby Hinsliff. (Guardian)
“In US oligarchies as in Russian ones, it turns out, it’s presidents who still get to set the agenda.”
Humanitarian flotilla
On Monday, Israeli Defense Forces stopped a boat carrying humanitarian aid bound for Gaza. Yes, it’s the ship that Greta Thunberg was on. The interception sparked global condemnation. The question Shannon Bosch asks and answers is: Did Israel’s actions comply with international law? (The Conversation)
“Powerful men line up to mock” Greta Thunberg for her stand on Palestine, writes Ezgi Basaran. It not only exposes injustice “but also the fragile egos and deep misogyny of those who uphold it.” (Angle, Anchor, and Voice)
US
The US and China came to an agreement on trade talks this week. Sort of. The US will still impose a 55 percent tariff on Chinese goods, while China will levy 10 percent on US imports. The bargain struck was over rare earth minerals. Natalie Sherman and Peter Hoskins have the few details that are available. (BBC)
Even before Trump’s chaotic “liberation day” tariffs, global trade was heading towards a needed reset, write Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz. Casting Trump’s actions aside, the US can and should lead a new international economic system. (Foreign Affairs)
Africa
Though he might have cut critical life saving assistance, the Sudanese still think Elon Musk is king. That’s because in a literal digital desert, his Starlink provides a connection to the internet, writes Yassmin Abdel-Magied. (New Lines)
Asia
Myanmar continues to be mired in conflict. While women make up the majority of displaced people as a result, Zue Padonmar and Maggi Quadrini point out that they are also playing a huge role in fighting back. (The Diplomat)
The Americas
There is A LOT going on in the Americas this week. Over the weekend, someone attempted to assassinate Colombia presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe. He remains in intensive care. On Wednesday, a series of bombs went off near Cali. Both have reignited fears that the country will revert back to violence.
In Argentina, a court upheld a six-year sentence for fraud and banned former president Cristina Kirchner from holding office.
Suriname has a new president, Jennifer Geerlings-Simons, the first female leader of the country. How she wields her power will determine whether the country, on the cusp of becoming a petro-state can shake off its colonial past and fully embrace democracy, writes Fausia Abdul. (Global Voices)
That switch to elect all judges in Mexico—it is a blow to democracy, writes Denise Dresser, ending three decades of checks and balances. (Americas Quarterly)
Middle East
“The United Nations General Assembly will vote soon on a draft resolution that calls on countries to take steps to force Israel to comply with international law and the UN Charter in its war on Hamas. The text also calls for an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave, alongside other sweeping demands in the multipage document,” writes Damilola Banjo. (PassBlue)
Turkey recently announced a truce with the country’s Kurds. A few weeks ago, the terrorist group, the PKK, laid down its arms and gave up its violent insurrection. But let’s not assume that there will be peace, writes Gönül Tol. Strongmen aren’t interested in resolving ethnic tensions. Their goal is unlimited power. (Foreign Policy) Sigh.
Trump’s trip to the Gulf last month generated widespread attention, given the business deals and gifts showered on the US president. “Less noticeable but more significant,” writes Mona Yacoubian, is the recalibration of the US Middle East strategy. “Should the Trump administration successfully negotiate deals that neutralize Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities and bring sustained quiet to Gaza, the Middle East could enter a new era of stability and prosperity.” (CSIS)
Europe
With a number of surprise attacks on Russia, Ukraine’s European allies should force Putin to come to the negotiating table, argues Lesia Ogryzko. (ECFR)
On Tuesday, a former student opened fire at a school in Austria. If that surprises you, it shouldn’t. As Solcyré Burga points out, Austria ranks 12th in the world for gun ownership and lax strong firearms laws. (Time)
Sounds like a place I know.
Technology
What’s more important, intellectual property or privacy? AI has forced this question. A US court recently ruled that Open AI keep all chats, even ones that users have deleted, in a case that the NYT brought about. The NYT is concerned about copyright. Yet, as Camille Stewart Gloster writes, this puts digital privacy at risk. Check out her new Substack on all things technology! (Command Line With Camille)
Opportunities
Interruptrr is hiring! I’m looking for journalism or international relations majors to help me put together special sections for the newsletter. More info here.
The National Committee on Foreign Policy is taking applications for its Korean Peninsula Emerging Leaders Program. Applications close on June 25.
Education Sub Saharan Africa is hiring a Director of Policy and Impact.
The John Paul Stevens Foundation is looking for an Executive Director.
The UN is taking applications for a Public Information Intern in DC.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief