Bullipolarity: A New (Dis)order
Rubio has admitted that unipolarity is over. That has unleashed an extractive foreign policy, to Gaza and Ukraine's detriment.
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In an interview with Megan Kelly at the end of last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a striking admission: the unipolar world that the US led after the Cold War was over. While that isn’t breaking news, it is the first time a high-level US official stated so explicitly that we are now in a multipolar era.
We didn’t get here overnight. Back in June 2009, Barack Obama gave an address at Cairo University in Egypt, calling for “a new beginning” between the United States and the Muslim world. He talked about global “interdependence,” noting that “any world order that elevates one nation or group of people over another will inevitably fail.” While he didn’t say that America’s unipolar moment had passed, he admitted that the world had changed—and, so too, much America’s approach to it. For Obama that meant finding “mutual interest and mutual respect”—moving away from an American-led order. We can have a separate debate on his success.
Fast-forward to today, it’s clear that while America may no longer be the world’s hegemon, Donald Trump has no intention of letting it become just another player. For Trump, this new multipolar world does not translate into multilateralism. It’s all about extraction. No surprise then that he has suspended foreign assistance and shuttered USAID. This past week, he distanced the US from NATO and has essentially done away with accepted norms, namely sovereignty and justice. America may no longer be a global leader, but Trump is not about to relegate itself to be a mere global player. The US will continue to get what it can when it can—because it can.
That was evident in Trump’s recent remarks about Gaza. He suggested that the US “own” and develop an ethnically cleansed Gaza—turning a war-torn land into a “Riviera.” It reflected the disturbing reality of our consumer obsessed culture—that everything has a price. That Gaza is home to Palestinians who have endured generations of hardship and suffering is irrelevant. It is beachfront property. For Trump, that is what holds value.
What does not is the ongoing war in Ukraine—or, rather, the US support for Ukraine. This week, Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin for 90 minutes—the first time since Putin invaded Ukraine for the second time in February 2022. They agreed to meet in Saudi Arabia (which is apparently a “neutral” country) to negotiate an end to the conflict. No date was set. He later called Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who admitted that it was not “pleasant” to hear about the conversation, without him, after the fact. No doubt he had a worse reaction after Pete Hegseth, the US secretary of defense, took away Ukrainian leverage when he noted that not only was Ukrainian membership in NATO off the table along with a NATO-backed security guarantee, but that it was “not realistic” for Ukraine to reclaim lost territory—including Crimea, my father’s birthplace.
Both points “reflect underlying truths,” as the FT writes. Still, they give into Russia’s main conditions, even before the start of any negotiation—and for nothing in return. Strikes me as the art of the capitulation, especially since it is not clear that Putin would drop any of his further demands, namely pulling NATO from Eastern Europe.
This has forced Zelensky to shift gears—to move from mounting a moral crusade that support for Ukraine is support for democracy, to sitting down with Trump’s treasury secretary to discuss trading his country’s mineral wealth, particularly in lithium, which is essential for batteries—for some security guarantee?
It has also forced Europe to realize that the transatlantic alliance has unraveled, which should make this weekend Munich Security Conference interesting, to say the least. Sylvie Kauffmann writes that in a speech in Paris last week, Timothy Snyder pleaded that Europe,
“should throw in everything you have to Ukraine — EU membership, troops, massive investment. Otherwise you will live in the shadow of war permanently. This is the hour of Europe, because the US will do nothing.”
Donald Trump’s US is doing something though. It is looking at and approaching the world as it sees it—a global marketplace. Morality and human considerations have little currency in this world where extraction is the guiding principles. Unipolarity is over. Trump is replacing it with bullipolarity. — Elmira
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Ukraine-Russia
This weekend, US Vice President JD Vance will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the margins of the Munich Security Conference. Leading up to that, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent traveled to Kyiv this week, the first Trump official to do so. That visit is a clear indication of how Trump plans to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict—through resource extraction. Ukraine is rich in minerals, including lithium, which we use in batteries. Once upon a time, these minerals were seen as a way of financing Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. Natalia Antelava says they’re “now being demanded by Trump as collateral for military aid.” (Coda Story)
Zelensky has used moral arguments and, as Amanda Coakley notes, “guilt trips” to get the US and Europe to support Ukraine. Now that Trump is now at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Ukraine’s president is now ready to make a deal. (WPR)
Speaking of the Munich Security Conference… Though he won’t be in attendance, Donald Trump, or rather what he has done and will do, will dominate critical conversations this weekend, writes Nina Werkhäuser. (DW)
The Middle East
With the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel has been able to turn its attention to its real focus — the West Bank. Dalia Hatuqa reports. (Politico)
Jordan’s King Abdullah met with Trump this week, in what was an uncomfortable meeting, to say the least. Elise Labott notes that while Trump may be pushing a proposal to push out Palestinians and rebuild Gaza, the Arab world is coalescing around a Middle East strategy that does not depend on America. (Cosmopolitics)
US
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington this week. In addition to trade and tariffs, Modi and Trump focused on immigration, writes Katherine Hadda. While 75 percent of H1B visas go to Indians, there is a huge number of undocumented Indians in the US—reportedly the third largest with 725,000. (CSIS)
Trump and Elon Musk are adamant about decreasing the size of the federal workforce. How will this impact national security? Former CIA officer Alex Finney says that it will make covert operations harder, and blow covers. (Just Security)
When it comes to foreign aid, Secretary Rubio should listen to Senator Rubio, says Interruptrr Fellow Fatema Sumar. (The Hill)
There was a time when no one in Silicon Valley wanted to have anything to do with the government. And, yet…. We have all sorts of tech bros taking up posts in the Trump administration, as Makena Kelly reports. (Wired)
Africa
South Africa passed a law to resolve the country’s unequal land ownership, a relic of the country’s apartheid past. Last week, Donald Trump called this “unjust racial discrimination” against white Afrikaners, which Elon Musk happens to be. He has cut US aid to the country and also signed an order taking in white South Africans as refugees. Nosmot Gbadamosi has more. (Foreign Policy)
In his inaugural address, Trump said he wants to end US involvement in wars. But that’s not happening in Somalia, as Devra Baxter points out. (Inkstick)
The Americas
In Ecuador, last Sunday’s elections resulted in a tie between incumbent Daniel Noboa and left wing challenger Luisa Gonzalez. Ione Wells and Jessica Cruz report. (BBC)
Europe
Last weekend, in Madrid, far right leaders across Europe, including those from Hungary, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, and host country Spain, gathered for a “Make Europe Great Again” conference. Emma Bubola has more. (NYT)
Technology
Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency have certainly been at work. Yaël Eisenstat joins this podcast to assess Musk’s actions and what it says about Silicon Valley and the levers of power. (Tech Policy Press)
Under the Radar
Listen: People affected by crises, and the people who respond to them, have been calling for change and equity for years, but for every reform pledge in Geneva or New York, there’s little movement in Yangon or Juba. Changing an entire sector is a tall order. But how can an entire system change? Lina Srivastava sat down with Degan Ali for this new podcast from The New Humanitarian. (Power Shift)
Opportunities
15 fellowship opportunities, via Women in International Affairs.
Women Deliver is looking for two short term consultants from March 1-June 12, 2025.
me too is hiring for a Director, Global Initiatives.
The Atlantic Council is hiring for an Assistant Director, GeoEconomics Center.
Bookclub Alert! Lourdes Martin, who pens Please, Do Tell, is reading Reading Lolita in Tehran this month. Join her for a virtual discussion on February 27.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief