Careful What You Wish For
One year after Hamas's assault on Israel, the Middle East has never been more violent. Netanyahu and Sinwar have swapped peace for security, leaving no one safe.
La Shona Tova!
A belated happy birthday shout out to Farley aka Mr. Milk. And to my dear brother Adj.
On September 29, 2023, Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, told a crowd gathered for The Atlantic Festival that “the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” A week later, Hamas attacked Israel, killing approximately 1200 and the kidnapping of 250. It set off a year of brutality and destruction.
In Gaza, more than 41,000 Palestinians have died and nearly 2 million have been displaced, while millions of others face malnutrition, disease, and trauma. Recently, Israel has turned its attention to Hezbollah, the Iranian backed Shia militant group in southern Lebanon. For the past year, Hezbollah has been firing rockets into northern Israel. Two weeks ago, Israel set off an operation that blew up pagers and walkie talkies belonging to senior Hezbollah commanders. Last week, it assassinated the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in a bombing that not only leveled several buildings, but Hezebollah itself. That has left Iran not only humiliated but with a weakened deterrent. On October 1, Tehran launched about 180 missiles into Israel, though none, much to Iran’s embarrassment, had any impact.
It’s Israel’s move now. Everyone expects the right-wing coalition that Benjamin Netanyahu leads to retaliate. That would widen the war — making the Middle East the most violent it has been in two decades. Peace has never been more elusive in the region. In fact, the word has been replaced with “security” — foremost for Israel but also Palestinians. Yet, achieving even that in an environment entrenched in militarism and absent of any discussion about justice or a political vision for the future seems impossible. Both Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar seem to know that. Neither have shown any urgency to reach a ceasefire or end hostilities. For them, this appears to be a game of chicken.
Sinwar was the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks. By all accounts he acted alone, not coordinating with either Hezbollah or Hamas’s patrons in Tehran. The Economist writes, “Mr. Sinwar wanted a cataclysmic war that would reshape the Middle East…”
Careful what you wish for.
Mr Sinwar went to war with two assumptions: that he would enjoy the support of a strong and united “axis of resistance”, a constellation of pro-Iranian militias; and that Israel’s conduct would inflame and mobilize the region.
It didn’t. Iran and its proxies hesitated to escalate tensions with Israel, opting for low level aggression. No Arab state has stepped forward to engage in the fighting or cut off ties with Israel. That has given Israel the opportunity to recalibrate one of its underlying strengths: Its intelligence.
Three months before the Hamas attack in October 2023, as the New York Times reported, a veteran analyst in Israel’s signals intelligence agency “warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined” in a blueprint that Israelis had obtained. “But a colonel in the Gaza division brushed off her concerns.” (Emphasis is mine.)
The failure to heed her warnings humiliated the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency. A year later, Mossad has shown that it’s back — and that its tentacles have extensive reach. It set up a front company to make explosive laden devices for Hezbollah. It has infiltrated both Hezbollah and Iran, to locate the whereabouts and movements of key figures. It is doubtful that the agency would brush off any analyst’s concerns today.
For his part, Netanyahu has pledged “total victory” over Hamas and unleashed a ferocious assault in order to achieve it. Again, careful what you wish for.
While Israel has eroded the group’s power, it will not eliminate it. It is a mistake to look at the Middle East through the lens of winners and losers. The region is an ever evolving and shifting set of alliances where one group is up, while another is down. Today, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are down. They will be back. And the cycle will continue, until someone is courageous enough to abandon war games and prioritize a resolution grounded in universal principles that acknowledges past injustices and works towards equitable settlement. — Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Lebanon-Israel
Israel may have weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon, but it will pay a heavy price for the suffering it has inflicted in both Gaza and Lebanon for decades to come, writes Lubna Masarwa. (Middle East Eye)
Meanwhile…. On the domestic front in Israel, Yael Berda reminds us about the judicial reform that the right-wing Netanyahu coalition has been trying to push through. Their effort started before October 7, but has not let up. These “reforms” would, as Berda writes, “end the judiciary’s independence and make it subservient to the governing coalition.” She points out how the ongoing war in Gaza has only hastened the fragmentation of democracy in Israel. “The government is pursuing a shift toward authoritarianism in the shadow of the war in Gaza.” (New Lines)
What does Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah mean for the Middle East? Robin Wright dives in. (New Yorker)
On the same question, Hayat Alvi points out how the region’s Sunnis have reason to celebrate Nasrallah’s assassination, only making the region’s dynamics more complicated — especially for US policy makers. Israel may have weakened Team Shia, but she warns that “pushing the conflict too hard” may just end up strengthening them. (The Hill)
October 7: One year later. Hagar Shezaf, M.L. deRaismes Combes, and Dana El Kurd weigh in on the US role and where the war is headed. (Foreign Policy)
US
Mona Yacoubian shares her thoughts on how the US can restore deterrence in the Middle East and pull the region back from the brink. (Foreign Affairs)
Happy birthday Jimmy Carter! He made human rights a central tenant of US foreign policy.
Africa
Last week’s high-level UNGA meetings revealed how the international community responds to regional conflicts, writes Karen Mathiasen. “Many countries, including the US, are willing to spend immense political capital on Ukraine and the Middle East while seeming resigned to the crisis in Sudan,” she writes. In his address, US President Joe Biden called on “the world” to stop arming Sudan’s generals, but seems to give the UAE a free pass. (Center for Global Development)
Africa’s “Sahel” region, in the northwest part of the country that includes Senegal, Gambia, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Mali, has been grappling with Islamic extremists. In Mali, extremist attacks have generally been confined outside urban areas. Yet, recent incidents in the country’s capital, Bamako indicate the government’s failure in combating the jihadists, writes Jessica Moody. (WPR)
Asia
What does a political party that has been in power for 75 years want for its birthday? New territory! China’s Communist Party celebrates 75 years in charge. Party leader Xi Jinping noted in a speech about the inevitable reunification of Taiwan with the mainland. Nectar Gan reports. (CNN)
In Sri Lanka, Anura Kumara Dissanayake won last weekend’s elections. The head of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, a Marxists party that has long been on the margins. Yet, promising to root out corruption, he rode the wave of public anger at inept governance. That’s why he can’t waste time in acting, writes Lasanda Kurukulasuriya. If he doesn’t he won’t last long. (The Diplomat)
As a side note: Dissanayake appointed Sri Lanka’s first female prime minister, Harini Amarasuriya.
Last month, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that he would be stepping down from his post and as the Liberal Democratic Party’s leader. The LDP chose Ishiba Shigeru as his successor. Immediately, Shigeru called for a snap election on October 27. Sheila Smith explains how this leadership race played out. (CFR)
The Taliban is intent on erasing women from the public in Afghanistan with a new “vice and virtue” law that not only silences women but justifies violence against them, argue Dyan Mazurana and Sima Samar. (The Conversation)
The Americas
Mexico’s first woman president, Claudia Sheinbaum, took office this week. 🙌 Sarah Zukerman Daly discusses the ways Sheinbaum may approach security differently from her predecessor. (Americas Quarterly)
How do feminists feel about Sheinbaum’s ascension? It’s complicated, notes Francesca Donner. She talked to Pamela Cerdeira about how having a woman in power doesn’t necessarily result in pro-woman policies. (The Persistent)
On October 27, Uruguay will head to the polls to pick the nation’s next president. Who is running? What are the issues? How does the public feel? Debbie Sharnak, Michael Shifter, and Ignacio Bartesaghi are here to tell us. (The Dialogue)
Canada’s PM Justin Trudeau survived his second vote of no confidence. Nadine Yousif dives into what sparked it and why this motion failed. (BBC)
Europe
France’s National Rally party had some of its biggest gains yet in the election earlier this summer, but this fall, they are in big trouble. Marine Le Pen and other senior figures of the far-right National Rally (RN) are on trial for embezzlement. Marta Lorimer and Paul Millar discuss what this means for Le Pen and the party’s future. (France24)
Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) came out on top after Austria’s parliamentary elections over the weekend. Sarah Shamim explains what comes next after these results. (Al Jazeera)
The war in Ukraine has reached a critical turning point, and the old arguments for restricting Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons no longer hold. Maria Avdeeva explains Ukraine's argument for striking back. (FPRI)
Middle East
Tunisia holds elections Sunday. Sarah Yerkes notes that it will be one of the country’s most undemocratic as incumbent Kais Saied, incidentally a constitutional law professor, has used legal means to bar opponents from challenging him. (Carnegie Endowment for Peace)
Science and Climate Change
Britain’s last coal-fired plant closed this week, marking the end of a more than 140-year era. Jillian Ambrose on the rise and fall of this once vital fuel source. (Guardian)
Technology
How can we achieve better AI governance? Lina Srivastava outlines a recent discussion on the topic. A salient issue: Most AI is being developed in the West. It’s vital to engage the Global South in the discussion about AI governance and the future direction it moves into. (MERL Tech)
Which country is a leader in Internet shutdowns?
(A) China
(B) Russia
(C) India
(D) Turkey
With 771 blackouts, India leads in Internet blackouts, writes Ananya Bhattacharya. (Rest of World)
Under the Radar
Role models matter! Dava Sobel weighs in on the life of Marie Curie, offering ways we can support aspiring female scientists today. (Washington Post)
Opportunities
The Hoover Institution is taking applications for its International Seminar (through January 20, 2025). If you’re a mid-level foreign or defense policy professional in government and/or the private sector, apply!
Rest of World is hiring for an Investigations Editor. Apply by October 25.
The Women’s Funding Network has two opportunities. One is for a Researcher, Feminist Philanthropy and another as the Director of Philanthropy.
The Aspen Security Forum Rising Leaders Program is getting ready to open its applications for 2025.
In NYC, the Ellen MacArthur Foundation is hiring for a Operations Manager.
If you’re studying Russia, check out the Russia Independent Media Archive Senior Fellowship. It’s a $6000 scholarship.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith
So insightful. Thank you Elmira!