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Last Thursday, F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby turned 100. As a refresher, it’s the tale of Jay Gatsby, born Jimmy Gatz, who manages to accrue riches through gangsters and bookies—all in an effort to impress Daisy Buchanan. Daisy once dated Gatsby, but opted for the wealthier Tom Buchanan, who carries on an affair with a married woman.
Fitzgerald described Tom and Daisy Buchanan as “careless people”—“they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness… and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”
That line sums up America’s current political leadership.
Writing recently about the novel’s centennial, Sarah Churchwell noted that Fitzgerald saw this moment coming: a society in which power protects itself, cruelty is normalized, and recklessness masquerades as strength. This week alone offered numerous examples.
American Gulag
On Monday, El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, appeared beside Donald Trump in a black T-shirt—no tie, just vibes. For weeks, the two have openly flouted the law. For $6 million, Bukele has taken several hundreds of migrants from the US, sent without due process. This includes Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an undocumented El Salvadoran national at the center of a court battle. The Supreme Court has asked the Trump administration to facilitate his return. Nothing has happened. Nor should we expect anything will. What the George W. Bush administration feared to do with those sent to Guantanamo, which is to defy the courts and the US Constitution, Trump is hurtling towards.
In Ezra Klein’s most recent podcast with Asha Rangappa, he notes that Trump’s goal is to
“send those he hates to foreign prisons beyond the reach of US law. He does not care—he will not even seek to discover—if those he sends into these foreign hells are guilty of what he claims. Because this is not about their guilt—it is about his power.”
Faux Feminism
Also on Monday, Blue Origin sent six women into space—a headline-grabbing stunt that its promoters tried to pass off as feminist progress. But as Laura E points out on LinkedIn, this space flight is taking place just as the “US government is decimating our scientific institutions, including NASA…” In March, DOGE dissolved NASA’s diversity, equity, and inclusion office. This week, NASA fired Neela Rajendra from her post as Chief Diversity Officer. Moira Donegan has a terrific piece that points out the antifeminist nature of the flight: “dependent on men, confined to triviality, and deeply, deeply silly.”
Iran Nuclear Redux
Meanwhile, Trump officials were in Oman for indirect—and eventually direct—talks with Iran. They’re trying to slow Tehran’s nuclear progress, a situation made worse by Trump’s own decision to tear up the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Back then, Iran was, according to Trita Parsi, 8–12 weeks away from having the fissile material to build a nuclear weapon. Today, it's more like 3–7 days.
The good news is that both sides are eager for a deal. Iran, as Elise Labott points out, is “more vulnerable than at any point in recent memory. Its proxy networks lie in tatters—Hamas devastated, Hezbollah decapitated, and the Assad regime in Syria toppled.” Meanwhile, Trump, who boasted that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in a day, has yet to produce results in that conflict or in the Israel-Hamas war. Ironically, Iran, which is eager for sanction relief amid an inflationary and crippled economy, appears to them like low hanging fruit. Iran as the easy win. Who woulda thought?
Yet, that is not enough to explain why Trump has dispatched Steve Witkoff, a real estate mogul, to be the lead negotiator with the Iranians—or the Russians, for that matter.
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal took two years to iron out. The actual document is about 150 pages. Witkoff has no diplomatic background or government experience, which was on display following his meeting with Putin at the end of March. Putin told him that he had gone to church to pray for Trump, following the July assassination attempt, and had a portrait of Trump painted, which Witkoff pointed to as some sort of evidence that Putin could be relied on. I’m shocked that the Russian leader didn’t try to sell him a bridge.
Earlier this week, Witkoff said Iran could maintain a certain level of nuclear enrichment, 3.7 percent, the amount in the Obama agreement. The next day, he was forced to backtrack after someone, probably the president himself, handed him Trump’s talking points. Those maintain that Iran cannot have a nuclear program.
That does not bode well for this weekend’s talks between the US and Iran in Rome. Iran has made it clear that it will not give up its nuclear capabilities. While neither side wants war and the will for an agreement is there on both sides, the Iranians might just take advantage of Witkoff’s inexperience and keep the US at the negotiating table, while it continues to build a bomb.
Just like in Gatsby, the rest of us are left with and in the mess. — Elmira
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Iran
Last weekend, US and Iranian negotiators met indirectly and directly in Oman. Holly Dagres, my go-to Iran expert, notes that this came about after the Trump administration sent a letter to Tehran in March, demanding that the country’s leaders dismantle their nuclear program. (The Iranist)
That’s unlikely to happen, by all accounts, including Katherine Wells, Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Victoria Penza, Avery Borens, Johanna Moore, and others. But if you’re wondering why Iran has agreed to sit down with the Americans, that has to do with fears of a US or Israeli strike. (Institute for the Study of War)
This raised my eyebrows: Saudi’s defense minister visited Tehran yesterday, reports Nadeen Ebrahim. Why is that important? Because until recently, Saudi Arabia and Iran were locked in a vicious sectarian battle for regional authority. They have engaged in a proxy fight in Yemen. The last time a senior Saudi official went to Tehran: 1997. (CNN)
An important point the Trump people are ignoring in their talks with the Iranians: human rights, write Holly Dagres, Azadeh Pourzand and Kelly Shannon. (NYT)
There are no great deals, good options, or Hollywood endings when negotiating with Iran on the nuclear issue, write Lauren Morganbesser and Aaron David Miller. (Foreign Policy)
Tariffs and trade wars
If you’re placing bets on who wins the US-China trade war, consider what Mary Gallagher has to say. She argues that it’s not merely a matter of China coming out unscathed, but its ability to restore global trust. That’s hard when the coercive tactics it uses are the same ones that Trump has adopted. (WPR)
Trump has levied extensive tariffs on countries in southeast Asia. It’s no coincidence then that China’s Xi Jinping is going on a tour to the region. Susannah Patton says Beijing is looking to exploit the current moment and position itself as the steady opponent of protectionism. (Nikkei Asia)
US
This week, the Trump administration shut down the Global Engagement Center at the State Department. GEC focused on combating foreign disinformation. Trump and Elon Musk claim that such efforts silenced right wing and conservative voices. Ellen Guo has more. (MIT Technology Review)
Meanwhile, the Trump administration plans to cut the State Department budget by half. Nahal Toosi reports. (Politico)
Former US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis noted that “if you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition.” Diplomacy saves money and lives.
What did the White House meeting with El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele tell us about Trump’s immigration approach? That the risk of random, unaccountable detention and imprisonment is growing, writes Jill Lawrence. Even Musk and Melania could have been detained under Trump’s rules. (The Bulwark)
Rare minerals are making headlines. We heard about them in February when Trump tried to cut a deal with Ukraine. It’s come up again amid the US-China trade war, where China is one of the biggest producers of rare earth minerals that power technology. Donald Trump is eager to increase mineral production in the US. Sara Vakshouri says that it’s about time. It’s not merely an economic issue, but a national security one. (The Hill)
Africa
Tuesday marked two years since the start of the civil war in Sudan. It is a conflict that has left 150,000 dead, more than 12 million displaced, and widespread famine. Mariel Ferragamo says that with USAID’s cancellation and no resolution in sight, things are likely to get worse. (CFR) I’ve included this graphic, by Will Merow, to highlight the dire situation.
Continuing on Sudan, Neha Wadekar reports on the often under reported toll war has on women and the gender based violence that occurs. In this segment, she talks to an activist, who herself has been terrorized, and offers support to other women who have suffered from sexual violence. (News Hour)
Asia
Nazila Jamshidi and Annie Pforzheimer are here to remind us that Afghan women continue to struggle against Taliban oppression, in a situation that can only be called gender apartheid. In February, the UN introduced a proposal to re-engage with the Taliban government. Jamshidi and Pforzheimer point out how similar it is to the failed Trump Doha agreement, in addition to pointing out two main weaknesses in it. (The Diplomat)
The Americas
Ecuador held elections last Sunday. The 37-year old incumbent, right wing Daniel Noboa won decisively. Ione Wells dives into his large victory margin, driven by the country’s enormous gang problem. Ecuador has become Latin America’s most dangerous country. (BBC)
Europe
Last weekend, while many Ukranians were in church for Palm Sunday services, Russia launched missiles into Sumy, a town in the north east. About 34 were killed and over a hundred wounded. Trump noted that the Russians told him it was an “accident.” Elene Davlikanova says don’t believe that. (Center for European Analysis)
Listen: With Donald Trump’s ascension to the White House, Russia’s Vladimir Putin has been a big beneficiary. How much has he benefitted? Maria Snegovaya and Kadri Liik join Victoria Uwonkunda to discuss. Maria starts at 6:52. (The Inquiry)
Following the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, students, who have only known one leader in Turkey, took to the streets to protest. Several hundred were arrested. Forty-three remain behind bars. Arzu Geybullayeva on their persistence, as they continue to defy calls for them to stop. (Global Voices)
Technology
Trump has given DOGE a green light to create a massive database that combines sensitive personal data of anyone government agencies hold data on. It’s time to update the Privacy Act, a Watergate era law that limits how the federal government can collect, use, and share information about US citizens and permanent residents, writes Deborah Brown. (Just Security)
Under the Radar
This week, a UK court ruled that transgender women do not fall under the legal definition of women, rolling back their protections. Solcyré Burga reports. (Time)
Meanwhile, in Hungary, parliament passed amendments that limit the rights of LGBTQ+ people and can take away citizenship from dual nationals. It is looking to ban pride parades next.
In 2017, 20 years after 164 countries (sans the US, Russia, and China) adopted the Ottawa Convention banning landmines, 51 million landmines had been destroyed, reducing injuries and deaths by 80 percent, writes Elena Bertozzi. The recent withdrawal of Finland, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia from the treaty will only lead to more suffering. (PassBlue)
There are still 110 million landmines in the ground.
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