Climbing down
February 2, 2024 - In the Middle East, it's time for diplomacy & détente
It’s Aquarius season. Lots of birthdays this weekend and coming week. All my favorite peeps. Happy birthday Lina, Tom, Christine, Grace, and Aleksandra!
On that note, if you have a birthday, I’d love to celebrate you. Let me know when it is and I’ll mention it here.
Oh happy Groundhog’s Day. Summer I miss you.
Last Friday, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) was getting ready to make an interim decision on whether Israel should cease its bombardment of Gaza. As Oona Hathaway points out, this is significant because the court may believe Israel has engaged in acts that violate the Genocide Convention.
Yet, by Monday, we moved onto two other stories, wiping the ICJ case and Israel’s brutal bombardment of Gaza away. The first involves several UNRWA workers who may have abetted Hamas or been Hamas members. It prompted calls to defund and shut down the UN humanitarian relief agency that operates in the Palestinian territories, UNRWA. Ryan Grim captures much of my thoughts on this.
The second is Iran, and its possible role in a drone strike on a US military outpost in Jordan that killed three US soldiers. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an Iranian-backed Shite militia group claimed responsibility. On cue came the calls to “Hit Iran now. Hit them hard,” as Senator Lindsay Graham Tweeted (or X’ed, what are we calling it these days?) Holly Dagres has an excellent summary on this in her excellent Substack, The Iranist.
Will the US go to war with Iran? It’s long been a wet dream for GOP neocons, even as many in the party want to suspend US support for Ukraine. It’s hard to make the case for war, which should always be a tool of last resort, when diplomacy has not been adequately pursued. Peace is idealistic. But détente isn’t.
Biden has said that the US will retaliate for Sunday’s drone strike. The question is how. The US president has firmly said he does not want a larger war in the region. Americans are tired of war and of global military obligations. It’s one of the reasons Biden pulled troops out of Afghanistan in 2021 and why he would not commit troops to defend Ukraine from Russia.
There are calls for Washington to strike Iran directly. That is doubtful since it’s an election year. More importantly, it is enormously stupid. A strike on Iranian soil increases the risk that the US would get dragged into a protracted war. Remember how that turned out in Afghanistan and Iraq? As Vali Nasr pointed out in FP Live, there is no appetite in the Middle East or among US allies for another war. If the US and Iran went to war, the US would be alone in its effort, while Iran would have the support of proxies in the region.
It is important to remember that it was an Iran proxy — and not Iran — who struck on Sunday.
Iran supports groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine because it does not want to be isolated in a region where both the US and Israel have an outsized role and where Saudi Arabia and Iran have been locked in a battle for regional influence. Iranian proxies help keep Iran in the proverbial game. But precisely because they are proxies, they also have differing agendas from Tehran. In the case of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the group is Iraqi and is eager, along with many in Baghdad’s leadership, to see the US finally leave the country. Iran has said it was not behind the strike. With a weak economy, it doesn’t want a war either.
So what’s the alternative? Détente. Before October 7, the Biden administration was working on a Saudi-Israel rapprochement. It needs to apply the same strategic thinking when it comes to Iran. Obama understood that and culminated in Iran agreeing to scale back its nuclear program in exchange for easing of sanctions and working its way back into the global arena - the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Biden’s failure to seriously re-engage Iran early in his administration was, at best, a lost opportunity. It shouldn’t be one now. As the US president moves to “retaliate” against Iran, it should also work to find a back channel again. It will not lead to peace or US-Iran reconciliation, much less scale back Iran’s nuclear program, which is by all accounts extremely advanced. But it would reduce tensions in the region and reinstate deterrence. Deterrence is mistakenly seen solely as a military tactic to prevent attacks. You bomb me, I will annihilate you. In actuality it only works where there is diplomacy, where it acts as a ladder to climb down from.
That’s important as we look at the calendar. November is just around the corner. Now is the time for cooler heads to prevail before orange ones do. — Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
ICJ ruling
How did Israel find itself in front of the International Court of Justice (ICJ)? South Africa brought the case before the UN body, accusing Israel of not only violating the Genocide Convention, but also asking the court for a provisional measure — to halt its military operation in Gaza. It’s one of nine provisions South Africa has asked the court to look into. Rashmin Sagoo outlines them in this excellent explainer. (Chatham House)
Listen: The ICJ ruled that Israel must take action in a few different ways to minimize harm in Gaza. Oona Hathaway, Clara Apt, Adil Ahmad Haque, Yuval Shany, and Paras Shah discuss. (Just Security)
While the ICJ didn’t outright call for a ceasefire, its ruling is still a big deal, Oona Hathaway tells Isaac Chotiner. (New Yorker)
UNRWA
What are the allegations against the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)? Ellen Ioanes lays them out. (Vox)
UNRWA is the sole provider of humanitarian aid for Palestinians. Without it, Palestinian life will be destroyed, writes Shatha Abulsamad. (Middle East Eye)
US
How has US immigration policy evolved since World War II? Brianna Lee and Diana Roy walk us through how the government has managed migration since the 1950s. (CFR)
Africa
Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso jointly announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The military leaders of these nations, all of whom recently came to power via military coups, have been sanctioned and pressured by ECOWAS in the name of democratic values. But Kate Hairsine wonders if the bloc’s actions crossed a line for the three. (DW)
Alexis Okeowo profiles Niemat Ahmadi and her efforts to raise awareness about the war in Sudan. (Vogue)
In last week’s Interruptrr, I wrote about a tale of two foreign ministers — Blinken traveling to West Africa, while Germany’s top diplomat headed to the east and shone a spotlight on the ongoing war in Sudan. Lesley Lababidi called out one Nigerian artist for succumbing to Blinken’s propaganda and, worse, feeding it. (Nomad4Now)
Asia
Watch: Tensions between the Koreas are growing. North Korea has been testing missiles and has recently said that it considers the maritime border just north of an island that belongs to South Korea illegal. How likely is war? Shannon Tiezzi and Ankit Panda discuss. (The Diplomat)
Meanwhile, Su Mi Terry suggests that we not overreact to Kim Jong Un’s provocations. That’s just what they are. (Foreign Affairs)
Leading up to elections next week, another former Pakistani prime minister is in jail. This week, a court sentenced Imran Khan to a combined 24 years in prison, (in separate sentences). What’s behind the accusations? As Hannah Ellis-Petersen notes, Pakistan’s military. (The Guardian)
The Americas
El Salvador heads to the polls this weekend. It’s a presidential election where voters will likely choose security over democracy, writes Mneesha Gellman, opting for the incumbent authoritarian leader Nayib Bukele. (The Conversation)
As we noted last week, Ecuador has become a dangerous place, with gang violence on the rise. It’s hurting the country’s economy. With opposition to the Ecuador-China Free Trade Agreement from some politicians, it looks like the deal is in jeopardy. Julie Radomski on the reasons for the recent opposition to the FTA. (WPR)
Listen: It’s an election year for Mexico but Tamara Taraciuk Broker has doubts on whether the playing field is really fair. Mexico may be taking a step back in its ability to maintain an equal democracy (sort of ironically, considering it's quite likely that Mexico will see its first female president this year). (The Dialogue)
Europe
The EU reached an agreement to provide Ukraine with $54.2 billion in aid, despite threats from Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, a fan of Vladimir Putin’s, to veto it. Orbán has been a thorn for Brussels. Caroline de Gruyter suggests digging back in history and looking at the Hapsburg Empire in order to better handle the prickly Hungarian PM. (Foreign Policy)
French farmers blocked roads into Paris this week. What are they protesting? Sybille De La Hamaide and Gus Trompiz lay it out. (Reuters)
This week, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed his top military commander, General Valery Zaluzhny. Riley Callanan tells us why. (G Zero)
EU accession isn’t looking too promising for Serbia. Angelica Vascotto on how the country’s December elections veered them off their accession course. (ECFR)
Middle East
The “War on Terror” narrative is enduring, writes Maha Hilal. The Bush administration deployed the term after 9/11/2001. Israel has now seized it, following the horrific October 7 attack. What it ultimately achieves is destruction and injustice. (Instick Media)
Is rapprochement possible in the Israel-Palestine conflict? Maya Savir discusses the possibilities of reconciliation in the context of Rwanda and South Africa. (New Lines Magazine)
Do Israelis and Palestinians have a shared experience? Anne-Marie Slaughter looks at whether differing perceptions of the conflict can harden into differing understandings and, thereby, intractable disagreement. (Project Syndicate)
Israelism is a controversial new movie on Israel and Jewish identity. “It offers a small window into how powerful special interest groups in the US groom young Jews into blindly supporting Israel,” writes Myriam Francois. (Al Jazeera)
So the Houthis are Shiite, but support the mostly Palestinians, some of whom are Sunni. (There is a sizable Christian minority, around six percent). How did that happen? Allison Miller explains. (Brookings)
Science & Climate Change
The EU has its sights set on becoming climate neutral by 2050 but there seems to be an endless amount of roadblocks in the way. Sasha Vakulina asks EU leaders and CEOs: Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Maroš Šefčovič, Ester Baiget, and Maksym Timchenko about what they think is needed to succeed. Oleksandra Vakulina says that domestic public support for the plan is essential. (EuroNews)
Technology
What role will generative AI play in this historic election year? Valerie Wirtschafter dives deep into the transformative impact of generative AI. (Brookings)
People are living longer. It’s no surprise then that the population is aging. How will the trend affect future families around the world? Researchers estimate that a woman who is 65 years old in 2095 will have only 25 living relatives globally. Alice Sun further explains how kinship will be impacted in the coming decades. (Scientific American)
Links You Loved....
Meredith Coons recommends The Artful Dodger. You can read her review of the show here. She says:
At first glance, it doesn't seem like Hulu’s The Artful Dodger would carry any explicitly feminist messaging. It's a sequel to Oliver Twist—kind of a boy book—that revisits the titular Dodger as an adult, now working as a surgeon in colonial Australia. However, its handling of the arc of co-protagonist Lady Belle is what makes it a meaningful entry into the Dickens canon for women who have held medical aspirations or endured healthcare bias. Basically, this character is suffering bizarre symptoms in plain sight the whole season that we, the viewers, easily process as corset-, depression-, or menstruation-related, only to find that it’s a straight up medical emergency. It feels uncharted for a show like this to cover something so socially significant in this way, and it's not to be missed.
Have a book, film, podcast, music recommendation? Send it over to endeavoringe@gmail.com (or respond to this post). We’ll post it here.
Opportunities
Unfortunately, life got “real” this week folks. I didn’t get to update this section. Thanks for your understanding.
Remote, come work with me at the Bard Globalization and International Affairs Program (BGIA). We’re hiring for a part-time Resume and Cover Letter Editor. We’re really looking for someone with HR chops.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith