Epic Fails

October 13, 2023 - Three epic fails from last weekend's attack on Israel

Oct 13, 2023

The events that took place in Israel last weekend were stunning, horrifying, and unspeakable. How did it happen? That’s a book length response. What I see are three epic failures.

Intelligence

The biggest question in the aftermath of Hamas’s attack was how in the world did Israel’s world-class intelligence agencies, Mossad and Shin Bet, miss this well-planned operation? Israel not only controls all digital communication in Gaza — the phone lines and the Internet, but it also has an extensive surveillance mechanism — from cameras to drones to facial recognition systems to actual spies on the ground. Pegasus, the spyware software that numerous governments use, is made in Israel.

Was it that Hamas went old school, forgoing phones and computers for good ole face-to-face contact? Or was it that the “firehose of intelligence,” as this Wired piece notes, made it difficult to home in on the credible threat? When you’re looking at everything, maybe you see nothing.

Could it have been that Israeli intelligence did pick up on Hamas’s plan but the leaders chose to underestimate it? This is what happened in 1973, when Mossad informed Golda Meir’s government about an impending Egyptian-Syrian invasion — and it was the military that dismissed it.

Economically and militarily superior to Hamas, perhaps Israeli leaders failed to imagine that Hamas had the capability to launch a large-scale attack — or that it would dare knowing that the response would be swift and decisive.

Divide and conquer

While Hamas, an Islamist militant group, governs Gaza, it only has authority over that territory. Fatah, a secular political party that recognizes Israel and has pursued a two-state solution, oversees the West Bank. Fatah “represents” the Palestinian Authority, the governing body of the Palestinian autonomous regions of both the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The PA was established in 1994 as part of the Oslo Peace Accords. In 2007, Fatah lost to Hamas in an election in Gaza. The two have been at odds since. Alexandra Sharp and Rishi Iyengar have put together this useful guide to who’s who in Palestine.

The Netanyahu government exploited this division, sidelining Fatah and the PA, which has sought a peace settlement but is also plagued with bad leadership. Mahmoud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen, heads Fatah - and has done so since 2005. (The PA has not held elections in 18 years.) Instead, as Tal Schneider notes, Netanyahu opted for “propping up" Hamas. Though he saw the militant group as just that, he didn't believe it had significant capabilities to hurt not only Israel, but his wider agenda. That included establishing diplomatic relations with the wider Arab world.

Leadership

In 2020, under the Trump presidency, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan all recognized Israel. That was something these states had previously said they would only do when Israel and Palestine made peace. (Egypt established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1980, after the Camp David Accords that Jimmy Carter brokered. Jordan recognized Israel in 1994, following the Oslo Peace Accords.)

Recently, Netanyahu, along with the Biden White House, were actively working on “normalization” between Israel and Saudi Arabia - establishing diplomatic relations. That is something that made Iran very uneasy. Though Iran and Saudi Arabia have “normalized” relations this past year, Iran is still eager to have influence over the Middle East.

Iran has supported Hamas. Its government has denied any hand in Hamas’s attack, which has put any Israeli-Saudi reconciliation on the back burner.

That the US under two presidents would prioritize peace with Israel’s Arab neighbors before the Palestinians is negligent. As Suzanne Maloney writes in Foreign Affairs, the Biden administration wanted to “downsize” its role in the Middle East — and shift its focus to China. After Iraq and Afghanistan, that’s understandable. What is unforgivable is following Donald Trump and working to build Israel-Saudi relations, while not looking to make peace where it really matters.

— Elmira

On our radar...

Israel-Palestine

Accurate, unbiased information is pretty hard to find when it comes to Israel and Palestine. Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) platform is only making things worse. Triggering content is spread without much moderation or fact checking. The site is only bound to make an already awful situation far worse, explains Margaret Sullivan. (The Guardian)
Was Saturday’s brutal attack on Israel a surprise? Maha Hussaini says it shouldn’t be. (Middle East Eye)
It’s important to understand the history of the Gaza Strip, in order to understand what’s happening there now, says Maha Nassar. (The Conversation)
How could the war between Hamas and Israel play out? Badly says Ellen Ioanes. (Vox)
Israel may decimate Hamas but can it win this war? Robin Wright discusses. (New Yorker)
The Biden administration has wanted to extricate the US from the Middle East. That’s not happening now, says Suzanne Moloney. (Foreign Affairs)
How is Japan positioning itself in the Israel-Hamas war? Koya Jibiki, Rimi Inomata, and Ryo Nemoto explain the “delicate balance” the Kishida administration hopes to maintain in the conflict. (Nikkei Asia)

Africa

Many are counting France’s withdrawal from Niger as an anti-colonial win, and in many ways it is. Mimi Mefo Takambou speaks on the withdrawal as well as the possible repercussions. (DW)

The US finally declared July’s military take over in Niger a coup. Jennifer Hansler on what that means, including suspension of aid. (CNN)

A Kenyan court temporarily blocks UN-back plans to send Kenyan police to Haiti. Damilola Banjo has more. (Passblue)

Asia

With the attack on Israel, this devastating news story got buried. A deadly earthquake struck western Afghanistan. Christina Goldbaum and Victor Blue on the extensive death toll and destruction. (NYT)

Australians go to the polls Saturday to vote on an amendment to the country’s constitution that would recognize Indigenous peoples in the constitution and enshrine an “Indigenous voice” in the country’s parliament. Linda Burney says a yes vote would bring a better future for Australia. (The Guardian)

Watch: The Maldives elected a new president on September 30. What can we expect from him in terms of foreign policy? Shannon Tiezzi spoke to Mimrah Abdul Ghafoor and JJ Robinson. (Diplomat)

Australian journalist Cheng Lei, who was imprisoned in China for three years, has been released. Emily Feng and John Ruwitch on what this means for China-Australia relations moving forward. (NPR)

The Americas

Mexico’s supreme court decriminalized abortion last month. Translating that into increased access will be much harder, says Myriam Vidal Valero. (Slate)

Mexico City is gearing up for a mayoral election. Who’s running? Experts Flavia Freidenberg, Omar García-Ponce, and Diego Castañeda on the candidates, their platforms and what’s at stake for the winner. (The Dialogue)

Will this be the last year of Mercosur, the South American trade bloc? Jordana Timerman explains why the 30-year-old trade bloc is in danger of breaking. (Americas Quarterly)

After several secret meetings in Doha, Venezuela and the US are finally back at the negotiation table. Florantonia Singer explains the two countries’ demands — the US urges Venezuela to hold free and fair elections, while Venezuela looks for the US to lift sanctions on its state-owned oil company. (El País)

Europe

At the beginning of the war with Russia, Ukraine put political divisions aside in an effort to be united. Amanda Coakley says politics is now making a careful comeback. (WPR)

How can Europeans support Ukraine? Marie Dumoulin, Lykke Friis, Gustav Gressel, and Leo Litra dive deep into the ways the EU and member states can do more. (ECFR)

The word choices that politicians and media make can be weaponized to shift accountability away from perpetrators. Mariana Budjeryn explains how vocabulary changes how people perceive the war in Ukraine. (The Conversation)

Middle East

Once upon a time, women recited the Quran in Egypt. They stopped after 1939. Why? Nadeen Shaker on the rise and fall of female Quran reciters in the most populous Arab country. (New Lines Magazine)

Science and Climate Change

Global temperatures have become deadlier, setting off unforeseen health issues. Researchers are trying to figure out how much heat the human body can withstand with people all over the world learning to adapt, explains Carissa Wong. (Nature)

How are Indigenous communities near the Arctic Circle impacted by climate change? Jocie Bentley interviews William Dillon, Jr., a respected elder in the Inuvialuit community of Tuktoyaktuk. Dillon speaks about the resilience built in Indigenous communities and the uncertainty for future generations. (Scientific American)

Technology

Content moderators are changing the future of Africa, says Erica Hellerstein. The world’s largest tech companies, including Facebook and TikTok, have their own third-party contractors who set up satellite sites in Nairobi, attracting locals to work as content moderators. (Coda Story)

Today is Friday the 13th. Exactly why are people superstitious about the date?
We LOVE this Substack: Queer Happened Here: NYC.
Condé Nast Traveler readers ranked the top countries of 2023.
We can’t stop making this pie crust with apple pie for the fall time! (Well, not Elmira. Her oven doesn’t work. 👀) Nothing cozier.
Wednesday was Eleanor Roosevelt’s birthday! 🥳 Have you been to Val-Kill, Eleanor’s home in the Hudson Valley? If you can’t make it there, check out the Eleanor Roosevelt Papers Project to honor her legacy.
PEOPLE! Moonlighting is streaming on Hulu. Vulture lists the best episodes. #GetExcited

Opportunities

I’m renaming this opportunities - since the following aren’t “jobs.” If you have an event, grant, or other “opportunity” to share with our community, please send it my way.

In Denver, the Posner Center is hiring an Executive Director.

In NYC, Politico wants a New York Editor.

Either NYC or DC, go work for Alight as the Director, Global Partnerships & Global Affairs.

In DC, the Council on Strong America wants a Director of Communications.

A plug for this: Do you want to get published? Of course you do. This is a great place to start:

Looking to have your analysis published on a hot topic? A new foreign policy journal, the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, is looking for 1500-2000 word essays on international security issues. Please see the link for examples of recent articles. One of our newsletter subscribers is an Associate Editor, and you can email her at pforzheimera@gmail.com for more details. The journal's politics are moderate and they are looking to expand out of Middle East issues.

Editorial Team

Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief

Editors:

Samantha Felman
Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Maya Scott
Emily Smith