Fragile Lines
From Tahrir Square, to Northern Ireland, South Africa, and, now, Minnesota—the lesson is that state violence does not restore authority, but exposes its limits.
Happy birthday BTB!
I screwed up on last week’s book giveaway and didn’t turn on the responses. DUH. So, I’ve kept the drawing open for Katie Benner and Erica Green’s book. Enter below!
Onto to the news….which was again chock-a-block this week. Iran is the thing to watch this weekend, which tops the Elsewhere section…In China, the detainment of the country’s top general should be the thing we’re all watching….But I start with Tahrir Square, Derry in Northern Ireland, and Minneapolis….
This week marked 15 years since Egyptians took to Tahrir Square, to protest against the repressive rule of Hosni Mubarak. It started on January 25, Egypt’s national “police day,” a day to honor the country’s security services. Tired of corruption and police brutality, Egyptians chose that day to take to the streets. In response, Mubarak sent in riot police and, in the early hours of January 28, shut down internet and mobile services to prevent further coordination. The move backfired. Participation at Tahrir swelled. They demanded Mubarak step down and did not leave until he did so on February 11.
As I began to look back on what happened in January 2011, I got drawn into another protest that happened on January 30, 1972.
On that day, British soldiers opened fire on unarmed civil rights marchers in Derry, Northern Ireland—marching for peace. Thirteen people were killed. The event—later known as Bloody Sunday—became a turning point in the conflict. Far from restoring order, the killings shattered what remained of the British state’s legitimacy among much of Northern Ireland’s Catholic population. Recruitment to the Irish Republican Army, which had been marginal, surged. Decades of violence followed. It took 26 years to get to peace in 1998.
These cases are often cited as proof that state violence backfires. Except, there are counter examples, in China in 1989 and, more recently, in Iran, that show that repression works.
Repression is just one of the things that the Trump administration has aspired to in his second term. In Minnesota, it unleashed thousands of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers, many who seem to be poorly trained—and a number who seem to have criminal records—to operate with enormous latitude and little oversight. That came into full view after ICE killed Renee Good, a 37-year old mother, on January 7. Administration officials, namely Stephen Miller and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem called her a “domestic terrorist” and said that ICE acted within its rights.
Both tried the same line last Saturday, after ICE agents repeatedly shot Alex Pretti, a 37-year old ICU nurse. Pretti had been participating in protests and, according to bystander videos and eyewitness accounts, was holding a phone and attempting to help a woman who agents knocked down, when ICE opened fire, killing him. Miller and Noem rolled out the same script, claiming Pretti was there to “massacre” ICE—because he had a gun.
That gun, which Pretti had a legal permit to carry, didn’t just complicate their narrative, it exposed the truth that no one escapes oppression. It’s a point that Eve Fairbanks makes in The Dial, in a fascinating piece entitled, “The Myth of the Police State.” She reflects on South Africa and apartheid—and how the heavy hand of the regime that policed Black South Africans, struck down white lives too.
She writes:
The real lesson from South Africa is that a police state wounds the people it claims to protect. A society that targets newspapers, universities, migrants, and protesters ultimately makes most of its supporters’ lives miserable, too. Often, moving toward a more just society is presented as the hard road. The arduous path. For so many white South Africans I have come to know, it was the easier one.”
Repression may be targeted, but it is never contained. Violence deployed against “troublemakers” rarely stops there. It spreads. Authoritarian systems may endure that bargain. Democracies cannot—not without becoming something else entirely. The lesson, from Tahrir to Derry to Johannesburg, is that violence does not restore authority—it exposes its limits. —Elmira
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Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Iran
It seems we’re back on the Iran watch….in what I’ll go out on a limb and say is an effort to flip the script from Minneapolis. On Wednesday, Donald Trump posted that US ships were heading to the Gulf, so “time is running out” for Iran to make a deal on its nuclear program. If its leaders didn’t, there would be a “far worse” attack than the one last June on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Is the US about to attack Iran? Well, it’s making preparations. In addition to the “armada” in the Gulf, The Economist reports that the US has deployed an air defense system and F-15 fighter jets. And according to the Institute for the Study of War, Iran is “very unlikely to accede to the United States’ demands regarding nuclear negotiations.”
Priyanka Shankar and Charu Sudan Kasturi lay out what both sides want. (Al Jazeera)
The Turks have offered to mediate talks and Iran’s foreign minister is headed to Ankara. There doesn’t seem to be any meetings set between Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, and the Iranians.
Meanwhile, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has confirmed that nearly 6,400 people died in recent protests. Let that sink in.
China
This should be the headline of the week—IF THINGS WERE NOT CRAZY. Last weekend, China’s leader Xi Jinping detained General Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Chief Liu Zhenli on suspicion of corruption. According to China watchers, this was a shocking development—and not really about corruption but a power grab.
Zhang’s arrest solidifies Xi’s control over China’s military, says Simone McCarthy. (CNN)
Hritika Patil has a similar take, noting that Xi’s move is about micromanaging—taking control of the armed forces and shaping it the way he wants. (Modern Diplomacy)
Zhang has known Xi since kindergarten. Both their fathers were CCP officials and Zhang was considered Xi’s ally in the Central Military Commission (CMC). There is concern that with Zhang out, there are no “adults” manning the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). By all accounts, Zhang was well respected and competent. There is concern that younger officers, who lack any combat experience, will increase chances of miscalculation. Yes, that means a strike on Taiwan.
Didi Kirsten Tatlow considers what the impact of this purge will be on China’s military. (Newsweek)
Since we’re talking about China…..
You’ll know that I’ve been asking where China has been amid Trump’s Venezuela decapitation, threats on Iran, and Greenland gambit. Wenjing Wang has answered my query. She notes that China is deliberately exercising strategic restraint—and prioritizing domestic economic issues. It may not approve of what Trump is doing, but it’s focused on its core interest, which includes Taiwan. (Responsible Statecraft)
My own assessment is that China’s restraint also prevents a full on great power crisis. The restraint has already given China a boost. The country looks more predictable, reframing global leadership that the problem on the world stage is America.
Global Trade
Following on from its trade deal with South America’s Mercosur, the EU penned a trade deal with India—which was two decades in the making. EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen called it the “mother of all deals.” That’s for good reason. As Federica Di Sario points out, the deal will reduce tariffs on 97 percent of EU goods, saving the EU about €4 billion. India, a notoriously protectionist economy, got things with the EU moving after Trump slapped a 50 percent tariff on the country. (The Parliament)
Yes, that means all eyes are on Donald Trump and his reaction. After Canada worked out a trade arrangement with China, particularly to import electric vehicles, Trump lashed out that he’d slap 100 percent tariffs on any further trade deals. Holly Ellyatt suspects it won’t be pretty. (CNBC)
The UK’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, landed in China this week—the first visit a British PM has made since 2018.
Alaska, not Greenland
“The United States faces serious security vulnerabilities in the Arctic,” writes Alice Rogoff. “The region’s strategic positioning and critical mineral deposits make it essential that we control it. That means making use of key territory to secure our defensive posture.” And that would be Alaska, which we’ve underinvested in. (Washington Post)
Olympic watch
The Winter Olympics kick off next Friday, February 6. Joining Mikaela Shiffrin, Lindsey Vonn, and Ilia Malin: ICE. Giorgia Meloni’s government is trying to play down the presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, writes Hannah Roberts. (Politico)
Closer to catastrophe
The Doomsday Clock, which measures how close humanity is to “catastrophe,” has moved up 4 seconds, from 89 to 85 seconds to midnight—THE CLOSEST IT’S EVER BEEN. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)
The US
Trump is escalating military activities in the Western Hemisphere, but he has remained silent about the American guns fueling violence in Latin America and beyond, writes Alexandra Menter. (Inkstick)
It’s been a year since the Trump administration began to dismantle USAID. Recently, Trump said that the US would withdraw from 60 multilateral programs, claiming that’s what the US public wants. Beth Van Schaack and Claudia Sung point out that, actually, the US public is largely in favor of global engagement. (Just Security)
Africa
Things are not looking good in South Sudan. A senior army commander has called for violence. South Sudan is the world’s youngest country, having declared independence in 2011. Yet, civil war prevented it from flourishing until 2018, when warring sides signed a peace agreement. That seems to be unraveling as tension between the country’s president and vice president have increased. (UN)
The day after Christmas, the US bombed Sokoto in Nigeria—a retaliatory measure against Muslim extremists that Trump claims are massacring Christians. Dionne Searcey profiles a Catholic bishop, Bishop Kukah, helping show the complex realities on the ground—and how they don’t reflect the soundbites out of the White House. (NYT)
Latin America
In Honduras, Nasry Asfura took office this week. He’s the Trump endorsed candidate that eked out a win back in the fall, in an extremely contentious election. Khalea Robertson notes that he’s betting on a close relationship with the US and will focus on building up the country’s infrastructure. An interesting tidbit: El Salvador’s jerk leader Nayib Bukele has not recognized Asfura’s win. (AS-COA)
Another interesting tidbit: Both Asfura and Bukele are of Palestinian descent.
Costa Ricans head to the polls on Sunday. It looks like the ruling party’s candidate, Laura Fernández Delgadom, is favored to win—and might do so in the first round. Macarena Hermosilla reports. (UPI)
Despite locking horns with Trump, Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, will meet the US president on Tuesday, February 3 at the White House. Astrid Suárez on Petro’s optimism for the meeting. (AP)
And Mexico stopped oil shipments to Cuba, which its president, Claudia Sheinbaum, says was an independent decision—that no one is buying.
Middle East
In Iraq the country’s dominant pro-Iranian political bloc nominated former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki to form a government—a move Donald Trump didn’t like. He warned that the US would cease all support to Iraq if Maliki came back to power. Dana Taib Menmy on how the Shia group has rejected US pressure, but, at the same time, is considering another candidate. (The New Arab)
Trump’s Board of Peace, the body tasked with overseeing Gaza’s peace and recovery, is nothing more than “authoritarian conflict management,” writes Dana el Kurd that legitimizes ethnic cleansing. (Foreign Policy)
As noted last week, in Syria, President Al Sharaa’s forces have moved into the north and taken over what has long been Kurdish autonomous territory. The Kurdish force, known as the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), has resisted disbanding and incorporating into a singular Syrian military. Yet, as Gönül Tol explains, the US, which had previously allied with the SDF, has switched its allegiance towards Turkey and left the Kurds with little room to maneuver. With the Kurds sidelined, Turkey is more likely to be okay with Israel occupying the south of Syria. (Middle East Institute)
Europe
In a moment when everyone is clamping down on migrants, Spain has announced that it will provide legal status to hundreds of thousands of them. Renata Brito has more. (AP)
Under the Radar
UN Secretary General António Guterres’ term as the head of the multilateral body ends in December. The race is on to replace him. Jody Williams and Mavic Cabrera-Balleza argue that his successor should be a woman—and a feminist. (PassBlue)
Hell yeah. 👊🏼💥
Opportunities
Women Moving Millions is hiring for a Program Director.
The Starling Institute, which is focused on multilateralism, is hiring for a Policy Advisor, Multilateralism & Diplomacy.
The Ford Foundation has a position open for a Director in the Office of the Chief Innovation Officer.
The Atlantic Council is looking for a Director for its Entrepreneurship Policy Initiative.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief