Gaza After Sinwar
Hamas's leader is dead. That provides an opening to stop Israel's bombardment. Will it end the war? That will depend on addressing the Palestinian plight.
LGM! Hey, it’s hard to be a Mets fan.
This week, veteran editor Kate Brannen joined me to consider what Yahya Sinwar’s death means for Israel, the Palestinians, and peace. Awful subject, excellent collaborator. Thank you Kate.
On Thursday, Israel confirmed that it had killed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, in a firefight in southern Gaza. Sinwar was considered the mastermind behind the October 7 assault on Israel and he has been Israel’s No. 1 target ever since Israel launched its war in Gaza last year.
Sinwar’s assassination is the latest in Israel’s relentless targeted killing campaign against the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah. Back in July, during the inauguration of the new Iranian president, Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, died in an explosion while visiting Tehran. In September, Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, died in an airstrike in Beirut. The Associated Press described his killing as “the biggest and most consequential of Israel’s targeted killings in years.” Just days after Nasrallah’s death, Israel announced it had killed two of his likely successors.
Israel’s ability to wipe out the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah in just a few months is impressive as a military and intelligence feat. But it has come with a devastating toll on civilians in Gaza and Lebanon — and no clear path to a peaceful resolution. Leadership decapitation is a tactic that will set back these groups significantly in the short- to medium-term. It has certainly helped Israel reestablish deterrence. In the longer term, however, killing is not a strategy that will eliminate terrorist threats directed at Israel or bring about a settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Ever since October 7, 2023, Sinwar’s fate was sealed: It was only a matter of time until the Israelis killed him. But Hamas’ future has been murkier. In an essay in Foreign Affairs this summer, terrorism expert Audrey Kurth Cronin wrote that terrorist groups can end via military repression but that it’s rare. She described Russia’s brutal campaign against separatists in Chechnya: “The bloodshed was massive and the destruction epic, but Russia did wipe out the main separatist groups, depopulating the region and paving the way for a pro-Russian government.”
Netanyahu has said that his ultimate goal is to “eliminate Hamas.” But when decapitation campaigns have worked in the past, Kurth Cronin notes, the groups are small and have not been around for a while, whereas “older, highly networked groups can reorganize and survive.” Before October 7, Israel killed countless Palestinian leaders, including the founder of Hamas, Ahmed Yassin, in 2004. Their deaths did not destroy, much less cower Hamas. One could argue that they played a part in emboldening Sinwar to plan and execute October 7 — and revive attention to the Palestinian plight.
Whether killing Sinwar will contribute to ending the war in Gaza is a decision Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have to make. The Economist’s Gregg Carlstrom noted that “a lot of people seem hopeful that Netanyahu will use Sinwar’s killing as an opportunity to declare victory, negotiate a hostage deal and end the war.” That would indeed be ideal, but Carlstrom wisely adds that “to believe that you basically have to ignore everything Netanyahu has said and done over the past year.”
On Thursday, Netanyahu was not declaring “Mission Accomplished.” Instead, he said that although “evil took a heavy blow, the mission ahead of us is still unfinished,” noting the Israeli hostages that remain trapped in Gaza. Even if a ceasefire deal is reached and more hostages return home, such an agreement would not resolve the question of what to do in Gaza once the fighting stops. Netanyahu has refused to consider a “day after” plan for Palestinian governance. Hamas has demanded that Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) pull out of the territory completely, a scenario that Israel is unlikely to agree to, even with Sinwar dead.
Over the past year, as Israel hunted Hamas, it destroyed Gaza, killing roughly 43,000 people and displacing over a million more. And now it is fighting in Lebanon and taking on Iran. These foes do not require Israel to wrestle with the question of Palestinian statehood, and therefore they may be more appealing to deal with than rebuilding a territory in ruins. This was Netanyahu’s strategy for years: ignore Gaza to focus on what he considered the bigger threats to Israel: Hezbollah and Iran. It’s possible that after destroying Hamas’ leadership, Netanyahu will once again put Gaza on the backburner.
If Israel continues to ignore the question of Gaza’s future (not to mention the West Bank) and the Palestinian quest for statehood, the cycle of violence will continue. Sinwar was the latest Palestinian leader who believed violent confrontation with Israel was the only way for Palestinians to achieve their goals. It is unlikely he’ll be the last. — Kate & Elmira
Kate Brannen is a non-resident journalism fellow at NYU's Reiss Center on Law and Security. She was most recently Deputy Editor at Foreign Affairs.
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Event alert!
In NYC, on Monday, October 28, 6pm, Elmira will moderate a panel entitled, Does Engaging the Taliban Legitimize Gender Apartheid? She will be joined by Kaavya Asoka, Annie Pforzheimer, Erica Gaston, and Fatema Ahmadi. Please join! RSVP here.
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Opportunities
Exclusive to Interruptrr readers: Our friends at Foreign Affairs have opened up a few spots for an upcoming webinar on Wednesday, October 23 at 12:30pm ET, What Are the Real Rules of International Relations? Sign up here.
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Yale’s Maurice Greenberg World Fellows Program is taking applications through December 4.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith
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