Gunboat Justice?
As Xi hosted leaders in China, Trump sent troops to the Caribbean to pursue "narco-terrorists," blurring the line between law enforcement and the military.
Lots of birthdays this week! Happy birthday Jane, Mark, Suzy, Robin, and my birthday twins Bene and Paul!
Holler if you’re in DC next week for the Women’s Funding Network conference.
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All eyes were on China this week. Last weekend, Xi Jinping hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, drawing leaders from across the Global South. The headline moment was a photo-op with Xi locked in arms with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and India's Narendra Modi—the anti-US alliance. Pundits were quick to blame Trump’s tariffs on India and his misreading of Putin for pushing New Delhi and Moscow closer to Beijing.
All things considered, in my unpopular opinion, this display is likely to have taken place no matter who sat in the White House. China, Russia, and India have long sought to counterbalance Washington’s outsized influence on the global stage. That photo-op only underscored that desire, along with Beijing’s interest in reshaping the world order. And he’s not alone.
Trump has made clear that the US needs a new relationship with the world. He’s back-peddled on NATO and withdrawn from European allies. He’s reversed decades of free trade by imposing tariffs. This week, he pushed the US closer to a possible confrontation with Venezuela—and just yesterday announced that the Department of Defense will be renamed the Department of War. 🙇🏻♀️
In August, the US started to deploy war ships to the Caribbean, to the waters off Venezuela to “fight drug cartels.” On September 2, the US struck a small vessel allegedly linked to the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, killing 11 people. Trump hailed it as a blow against a so-called “narco-terrorist” group.
There are many things wrong with this.
First, by all accounts Tren de Aragua is a brutal gang that engages in a multitude of criminal behavior such as human trafficking, kidnapping, and sexual exploitation, but its role in drug trafficking seems to be limited. (I mean, you can’t be good at everything). It’s certainly not a cartel at the scale the administration claims.
Second, as the Washington Office on Latin America notes, “using lethal force on suspicion of illegal activity violates the letter and spirit of more than a century of international standards and the United States’ own regulations for maritime operations against civilian vessels in international waters.” In its war on drugs, the US has used the Coast Guard to search ships and then arrest suspects and prosecute them in court. There is no precedent for the US simply to use its military and lethal force on suspected drug runners. (What the US did in the Middle East in pursuit of Al Qaeda combatants is another matter….) Indeed, as Just Security notes, in the absence of imminent threat or armed conflict, there are a lot of legal issues this attack raises.
So what’s the logic behind going after it? That’s what has many worried. Could the Trump administration be going after Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s leader? To depose him? They have been clear that they don’t like him and see him as an illegitimate ruler.
If this is their endgame, it’s an extremely dangerous one. According to Dr. Rebecca Bill Chavez,
“If…this is about regime change—it would be a grave mistake. Any sort of intervention in Venezuela to depose Maduro would not be a quick and easy activity. It would look more like a prolonged low-intensity conflict or even a war because of the nature of what’s going on in Venezuela. This is not a matter of going in and doing a surgical strike and then getting out quickly.”
The Guardian notes that this attack might have the opposite of its intended effect: it might bolster Maduro. Playing the victim of US aggression has long been one of his survival strategies. Rather than weakening him, Trump’s aggression could consolidate Maduro’s grip—just as US interventions in Latin America throughout the 19th and 20th centuries ended up strengthening autocratic rulers such as Fidel Castro in Cuba and Manuel Noriega in Panama.
And Venezuela may not be the last stop, especially in a “department of war.” Trump has long talked about “sending troops” to “wipe out” the cartels. Earlier this year, his administration formally designated several Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. That sparked fear that the US might take military action on our southern neighbor, bypassing Congress under the banner of the “war on terror.” Back in May, Annie Pforzheimer wrote about the potential for the US to launch a drone strike into Mexico—just as the US has, most famously under Obama, against suspected targets in Afghanistan and Yemen. What if this week’s attack on the Venezuelan vessel is a test run on a bigger raid in Mexico? 😳
While Washington clutched its pearls over Xi, Putin, and Modi, Trump was inching the US closer to confrontation in the Caribbean. Here, just as he’s done with sending the National Guard into LA and Washington DC, he’s militarizing a law-enforcement issue, blurring the line between policing and war. That’s not just a dangerous—it’s a playbook that could extend from Venezuela straight into Mexico, plunging the hemisphere into chaos. So much for being the “peace” president. —Elmira
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
China Summit
Following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s meeting last weekend, China held a military parade on Wednesday. While many in the West make a big deal out of the display of military hardware at such events, Margaret Pearson and Kainan Gao note that what they should zero in on is how these events are part of a “memory war.” No wonder Russia’s president was on hand as well. (Brookings)
For everyone clutching their pearls over the display at China’s summit last weekend and military parade this week, calm down. Yes, it was concerning that Russia and India’s leaders appeared in locked hands with China’s Xi Jinping. But there’s a gap between China’s ambition to upend the global world order and its delivery, write Natasha Kuhrt and Evgeny Roshchin. (CEPA)
Yu Jie, on the other hand, does think that China used the summit and parade to showcase its vision for a new world order—casting itself as the standard bearer of a multi-polar world led by the Global South. (Chatham House)
War with Venezuela?
The US has dispatched eight warships off the coast of Venezuela to combat drug cartels. On Tuesday, it bombed a small vessel allegedly carrying massive amounts of drugs. Caitlin Wilson and Gerardo Lissardy note that this may be more about intimidating the Maduro regime. Rebecca Bill Chavez notes that that would be a “grave mistake.” (BBC)
Afghanistan earthquake
A 6.0 earthquake struck Afghanistan on Monday. While significant on the seismograph, given the country’s level of poverty and underdevelopment, it has resulted in over 2,200 deaths. Heartbreaking is an understatement. If you are moved and are able to help, here is a useful list of organizations working on relief efforts: Time
It’s been four years since the US pulled out of Afghanistan and the Taliban took back power. Freshta Jalalzai says that despite the US intervention and billions poured into the country, Afghanistan “has reverted to nearly the same state it was in 25 years ago.” Russia is the only country that recognizes the Taliban-led Afghanistan. (The Diplomat)
US
Just before the Labor Day weekend, a US federal appeals court ruled that Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs were illegal. It said that they can stay in place until October 14. Trump has said it will appeal to the Supreme Court. But, as Felicity Deane points out, this adds to the already chaotic nature of this presidency. (The Conversation)
The US Human Rights report may have sparked controversy, but it was always reliable and respected. What the Trump administration has done to it, gutting certain sections such as women’s and LGBTQ rights, does a disservice, writes Annie Pforzheimer. “The report is not a feel-good exercise… it keeps the government aware of simmering dissent and regime instability.” (The Steady State)
Africa
Benin, a small West African country, has been a democratic beacon for the past 25 years. Yet, after Patrice Talon, the current rule, took office in 2016, things started to backslide. While Talon has confirmed that he’ll step down after two terms in office, Dominika Koter dissects how Benin got here—and how it can happen elsewhere (Democracy in Africa)
Asia
Violent protests have rocked Indonesia. Ten have died so far. With growing economic uncertainty and hardship, Indonesian students were upset at a housing allowance the country’s leader extended to lawmakers. Typical of strongman rulers, the government has crackdown on protesters, arresting nearly 4,000. Kathleen Magramo has more. (CNN)
Before South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung headed to the White House a few weeks ago, he stopped in Japan. This is a big deal, given the contentious relationship between the two countries. Theresa Lou points out that with a surging China and Trump in the White House, this is a “pragmatic” approach. (WPR)
Middle East
Last weekend, an Israeli airstrike killed the prime minister of Yemen, Ahmed al-Rahawi. It was not just the assassination of a Houthi leader, but a dent in the perception that the Houthis, an Iranian backed group, are not only strong but untouchable, writes Fatima Abo Alasrar. (Foreign Policy)
The UAE shows that it has some balls. It warned Israel that an attempt to annex the West Bank would cross a “redline.” Wafaa Shurafa reports. (PBS News Hour)
Let’s hope it’s not like Obama’s redline.
Europe
Twenty-six countries agreed to participate or else contribute to Ukrainian security this week. In a meeting French president Emmanuel Macron convened, the “coalition of the willing” will send troops or assist through other military means, writes Alice Tidely. (Euronews)
Meanwhile, the US announced that it would phase out security assistance to countries bordering Russia.
Ukrainians are fighting for their future, not only against Russia but against corruption. In July, the Zelensky government moved to strip two of the country’s anticorruption institutions. Ukrainians were having none of it. They took to the streets in protest. “Defeating Russia and building a strong Ukrainian democracy go hand in hand," write Daria Kaleniuk and Olena Halushka. (Foreign Affairs)
Under the Radar
As the Trump administration attacks vaccines, Mariel Ferragamo reminds us that vaccination campaigns have nearly eradicated some of the most deadly and transmissible diseases. With the US pulling global support, outbreaks are cropping up. (CFR)
Rivka Galchen asks an incredibly important question: Why don’t we take nuclear weapons seriously? (New Yorker)
Opportunities
Book Club Alert! Lourdes Martin is the author behind the terrific Substack, Please Do Tell. She’s got a terrific book club called, “Parts Unread,” that we’ve attended before. Her next pick is Lynsey Addario’s It’s What I Do: A Photographer’s Life of Love and War. Discussion will be on Thursday, October 23. Get on this!
Tech Policy Press is taking applications for its 2026 Press Fellowship Program. Apply by Oct 15.
The University of Notre Dame is taking applications for its Hewlett Visiting Fellowship. Apply by Oct 1.
Chatham House has an opening for a Research Director - Africa, Middle East and North Africa and Asia Pacific. (That’s a lotta the world…)
Semafor is hiring a Chief Africa Correspondent.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief