It's a New World, Baby
Trump's Venezuela operation marks a serious new direction for the US and the world—one that China is unlikely to want to follow.
Happy New Year! Hope it’s off to a good start.. I’m not quite yet ready to be back, but headlines don’t wait. This is a condensed edition devoted mostly to Venezuela, which checks off a number of boxes: international law, regime change, China and great powers, oil, American aggression. Hope to have a regular newsletter next Friday. Please love this post by hitting 🖤 above —and, please, share with others. If you ❤️ the newsletter, please become a paid subscriber.
Next week marks the 133 anniversary of the overthrow of Queen Liliuokalani, the last monarch of what was the Kingdom of Hawaii. On January 17, 1893, a group of American businessmen, backed by US military forces, forced her from her throne.
Liliuokalani had assumed power just two years earlier, following the death of her brother. Hawaii was suffering through an economic crisis. Revenue from sugar exports had dissipated, largely because of American pressure to remove tariffs that had protected local producers. It hit local businesses hard. Liliuokalani wanted to introduce reforms that would restore power back to Hawaiians. The Americans who had come to Hawaii to profit from its sugar plantations were having none of it. She had to go.
That is the earliest instance of American “regime change,” which has become the catch phrase of the week, following last Saturday’s operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro—and talk about seizing Greenland. Yes, this is crazy.
Except, the regime in Venezuela, as Frida Ghitis points out, didn’t change. Here’s our conversation from Sunday.
That’s what the Trump administration is pointing out and using to defend its actions, which it says were judicial—a “law enforcement operation.” Oona Hathaway lays out how there is no legal basis for this, in international or US law. “States are not allowed to decide on their own that they want to use force against other states,” she says.
I’d add “once upon a time.” It’s a new world baby. And that’s what Trump’s Venezuela operation put on full display. Everything is up for grabs, so long as you can win.
Gone are the proclamations about democracy that justified numerous interventions and, most recently, led us into “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan. Maduro’s people still govern Venezuela, with no prospect for elections within the 30 days as the country’s constitution requires when the president becomes “permanently unavailable” to serve.
There is oil and money to be made! Trump has said that American companies will revive the country’s hallowed-out energy sector to what it was in the 1990s. American companies say that they need legal and financial “guarantees” from the US government. Restoring Venezuelan oil production to 1990 levels would require an estimated $183 billion in investment, and even then companies worry that a renewed supply glut would depress prices and hurt their own bottom lines. Frida Ghitis noted that a glut of oil will hurt American fracking, which may not be such a bad thing.
Taken together this is what many say is the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823—or the “Donroe Doctrine”—a revival of hemispheric dominance stripped of diplomatic restraint. Pure bullying.
What happens next?
For now, the administration will remain fixated on Venezuela, even though Trump has talked about taking Greenland. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet with Danish officials to discuss the island’s status next week. My guess is that this will be strung out. Though Trump is high off his military victory and is probably eager to strike another target, he’s not likely to bite more off than he can chew. Not likely is the key here. Anything and everything is possible.
It’s unclear what will shake out in Venezuela over the next few weeks, particularly among the various figures left governing the country. The Miami Herald reports that there is a “violent struggle over control of the military— who commands it, who coordinates it — and who may soon deploy it against internal rivals,” following the removal of top a general, Javier Marcano Tábata. There is also the question about whether the military will unite under civilian control. That’s the thing about interventions. Everything seems great on day one when the dictator is gone. It’s the days after that get messy—and often stay that way.
You can bet that China is watching this with an eagle eye—for a number of reasons. To start, China is the biggest customer of Venezuelan crude oil. According to Bloomberg, it is also Venezuela’s biggest creditor. Maduro had met with Chinese officials hours before the US operation to remove him. From Beijing’s perspective, this was not a distant regional episode but a direct intrusion into an economic and political relationship it has carefully cultivated.
That raises a larger question: does Beijing accept the new “Donroe Doctrine”—the idea that the United States can unilaterally police the Western Hemisphere while other great powers do the same elsewhere?
Secondly, in the NYT, Li Yuan notes that when the US captured Maduro, “Chinese social media lit up” with people asking, “Why can’t Beijing do the same in Taiwan and arrest its president?”
My guess is that while China’s leader Xi Jinping has plans to usurp Taiwan, which he considers to be a part of a single China, he also understands how such an operation is destabilizing. Beijing isn’t looking for anarchy—it’s looking for advantage.
China does not like a US-led rules based order. But it does favor rules. Beijing has spent years investing in the UN and other international systems, not out of altruism but because predictable rules lower the cost of trade, energy access, and long-term growth. Trump’s message of “regions for everyone” is probably not something Xi Jinping will embrace—precisely because it raises global economic and political risks—for everyone.
Trump’s “hemispheres-and-spheres” approach does not simply “greenlight” China in Asia. It forces Beijing into a harder choice: between opportunism in Taiwan and preserving the parts of the global system China increasingly depends on—especially as it confronts slowing growth and a severe demographic problem.
That is the irony of this moment. As the United States works to dismantle the order it once built, it may be China that salvages what remains. —Elmira
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I’ll be back with regular links next week…
Trump’s Venezuela operation displayed US military might and capability. It also showed that the “hawks” in the Republican party have edged out the isolationists who have warned against US adventures abroad for the second time, following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June. Emma Ashford warns that while both worked in Trump’s favor, his luck is bound to run out. (Foreign Policy) (Gift link)
In capturing Maduro, the US has removed a key ally for Moscow, notes Candace Rondeaux. Venezuela had been one of the few countries that did not abide by US sanctions on Russia. With Maduro in custody in the US (in Brooklyn!), Moscow is unlikely to sit idly by and watch a key financial resource disappear. (World Politics Review)
Trump is pledging big investment in Venezuelan oil. The US oil industry has been silent, notes Anna Kramer (NOTUS)
The president did not have the necessary Congressional authority to force Maduro out of Venezuela explain Tess Bridgeman, Brian Egan, and Ryan Goodman. (Just Security)
Vanda Felbab-Brown breaks down the Trump administration’s objectives and the implications of the Maduros’ arrests for regime change in Venezuela. (Brookings)
Europe has had a tepid response to Trump’s Venezuela operation. That reflects Washington’s influence over the continent, writes Rosa Balfour. (Carnegie Europe)
Most Venezuelans were no doubt thrilled that Maduro is gone. Yet, the assumption that all “Venezuelans will remain passive, compliant, and submissive in the face of humiliation and force,” is wrong, writes Michelle Ellner. (Venezuelanalysis)
And because we can’t ignore the threats on Greenland… Zoya Sheftalovich and Victor Jack outline how Trump could take Greenland..in 4 easy steps. (Politico)
And Frida Ghitis writes that we should believe Trump’s threats to take Greenland. (Insight)
Opportunities
Will be back next week!
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Thanks, Elmira, for an excellent newsletter. Very insightful and well written.