Mediocre Man
Amid the push for peace between Russia and Ukraine, Trump showed he's something worse than an autocrat. He's a mediocre man.
If you like the newsletter, please give it some love by hitting 🖤 above —and, please, share with others. If you ❤️ the newsletter, please become a paid subscriber.
Following Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders at the White House Monday, the New York Times and Wall Street Journal ran nearly identical pieces:
How Europe Learned to Speak So Trump Would Listen
“We were well prepared and well coordinated,” Friedrich Merz, the chancellor of Germany, told reporters after he and his counterparts met Mr. Trump at the White House. “We also represented the same viewpoints. I think that really pleased the American president.”
How European Leaders Studied Trump and Learned His Language
But European leaders say the secret sauce for getting Trump’s attention and admiration is learning to speak his language. In doing so, they have begun to gain his ear and retain his support for Ukraine.
Ukrainians are getting killed as Russia encroaches on their territory, yet Europe and Zelensky spent this week’s White House summit worried about pleasing the American president.
Can you imagine world leaders trying to please Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris? No, because Clinton and Harris would be too busy trying to please them.
Many will chalk up all that groveling and fealty to Trump’s autocratic tendencies. Certainly, autocrats have fragile egos that constantly need stroking. That they’re almost always men is no coincidence. But compared with today’s strongmen, including Putin, as well as Turkey’s Erdoğan, China’s Xi, and India’s Modi—Trump is something else entirely. Putin, Erdoğan, Xi, and Modi are ruthless strategists. Trump is a reality TV star with lots of taglines but no vision. That makes him something worse than an autocrat. It makes him a mediocre man.
Think of the worst middle manager you’ve ever had—and we’ve all had at least one. He—or she—is obsessed with titles and appearances, shifting goalposts, belittling, finger-pointing. Everything is urgent and needed ASAP. They almost always fail to plan, let alone inspire. Instead, they call endless meetings, micromanages, and mansplains. A middle manager I once had explained gender to me for seven minutes. This person does not strive for the best. They strive for what will get them to get by, if not to the next level—and the infuriating thing is, they all get to the next level. It’s all an exercise of mediocrity.
That is precisely what has been on display for the past week. Instead of tapping seasoned diplomats and experts to work to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, (or simply keep them employed at USAID, the National Security Council, and State Department) Trump rolled out the red carpet for Russia’s leader last Friday. Earlier this week, I noted that he got Putin to sign on to the fiction that the 2020 election was stolen. He did so while Putin refused to agree to a ceasefire—the one thing Trump had called a dealbreaker. Worse, he fell in line with Putin’s position that the two sides should skip a truce and go straight to “peace” talks.
Except Putin isn’t eager to talk. He has dismissed Zelensky as an “illegitimate puppet of the West” and justified his invasion as a crusade against “Nazis.” (Given that Zelensky’s Jewish, I’m not sure how he justifies this, but I digress…) As Julia Davis notes, optically that makes it difficult for Putin, the propagandist, to sit down with the Ukrainian leader. And if he did? He would do so at literal gunpoint. As long as Russian troops keep killing Ukrainians, Moscow holds the upper hand in any negotiation. A ceasefire would strip that leverage away.
Putin has made clear he does not believe in Ukrainian sovereignty. He has “offered” to end hostilities in exchange for not only the territory it already illegally occupies, but land not yet conquered. As M. Gessen notes, that’s not negotiation. It’s extortion.
Moreover, Russia is demanding a veto over Ukraine’s future security guarantees — the diplomatic equivalent of handing your computer password to the hacker so he can make sure you don’t get hacked again.
While Putin is clear about what he wants and how he’s going to get it, Trump has not given details about what kind of security guarantees Ukraine would receive. That’s no doubt because he doesn’t have them. Evelyn Farkas notes that “they’re flying blind without the expertise.”
Instead, Trump is going on vibes. Caught on a hot mic during Monday’s presser with Europe’s leaders, Trump can be heard saying to French President Emmanuel Macron about Putin, “I think he wants to make a deal for me, you understand, as crazy as it sounds.”
Yes, it does sound crazy, because it is.
Instead of the master negotiator he claims to be, Trump personifies the middle manager promoted far beyond his competence. The tragedy is that Ukrainians, along with those in Gaza, Sudan, Congo, pay the price for his mediocrity. —Elmira
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Russia-Ukraine
Trump is promising Ukraine security guarantees. But can Ukraine trust him? Nahal Toosi on America’s credibility and Ukraine’s desperation. (Politico)
Now that Trump has hosted both Putin and Zelensky, he’s turned his attention to a trilateral summit. Zelensky has been eager to sit across from Russia’s leader. Putin, however, has not even been able to utter Zelensky’s name, dismissing him as illegitimate. Can Putin sit down with Zelensky? Julia Davis has her doubts. (CEPA)
The search for a solution to Russia’s war on Ukraine is also a struggle over the future of the global order, says Frida Ghittis. She notes, “how the conflict ends will have lasting consequences for the geopolitical balance of power.” (World Politics Review)
Gaza
Palestinians continue to face the consequences of famine. This morning, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification System declared a famine in the territory. Meanwhile, Israel has announced that it will call up 60,000 reservists ahead of a military operation in Gaza. Yes, they are really going to deploy more soldiers into Gaza.
Sara Awad is getting ready to leave Gaza City—for what she believes is for good, as Israel plans to take over the city. (Al Jazeera)
Meanwhile, in the West Bank, the Netanyahu government has greenlighted the E1 project, which will connect settlements in the West Bank to East Jerusalem. As more countries recognize Palestine, they must stop this settler expansion, writes Angela Godfrey Goldstein. (Middle East Eye)
US
Listen: Trump’s foreign policy towards America’s allies has little precedent, says Margaret MacMillan. In a new piece in Foreign Affairs, she writes a piece entitled, “Making America Alone Again.” Here, you can hear her conversation about it. She notes that Trump’s approach “does not suggest a clever Machiavellian policy to enhance American power; rather, it shows a United States acting against its own interests in bewildering fashion, undermining one of the key sources of that power.” (Foreign Affairs)
The State Department issued its annual Human Rights Report last week. Laura Thornton notes that it is an “extreme departure from decades of painstaking tracking of global human rights.” Namely, it eliminates a number of indicators. Overall, however, she says that it is an accurate reflection of who America is today—with what it has chosen to ignore. (The Hill)
America should return to realism, argues Emma Ashford. (FT)
I’d be okay if it returned to reason…
Africa
That peace agreement between Congo and Rwanda that Trump was counting as one of his wins? Well, as Barbara Plett Usher and Wycliffe Muia report, Human Rights Watch says that Rwandan rebels killed 140 in Congo last month, despite a supposed ceasefire. (BBC)
Asia
It’s time for the West to name the Taliban a Foreign Terrorist Organization and be listed under the UN’s Al Qaeda sanctions regime, argue Annie Pforzheimer and Lynne O’Donnell. Afghanistan’s rogue rulers, who seized power in August 2021 without law or consent, support Al Qaeda, not to mention terrorize women and girls in the country. (Open Magazine)
While I was away, Trump slapped India with a 50 percent tariff. He accused the country of buying oil from Russia, which violates sanctions. I didn’t think that Trump understood what a violation means, but I digress… Tanvi Madan on the seeming breakup and its consequences. (Brookings)
The Americas
Last Sunday, Bolivians delivered a blow to the political left, which has governed the country for 20 years. Rodrigo Paz, a center right lawmaker, finished first in the first round of voting. He will face former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga on October 19 for a runoff, reports Isabel Debre. (AP)
Europe
One of the places I went to while in Europe was Bosnia… my old stomping grounds. People had a lot to say about Milorad Dodik, who has been ousted from his post as the leader of the Republika Srpska, one of the two “states” that make up Bosnia. As Marija Stojanović explains, he was ousted after a court found him guilty for refusing to implement decisions the country’s “High Representative” issued. (The high rep is an international governor - it should be abolished, but that’s a separate subject.) Bosnia’s Constitutional Court and Central Election Commission upheld that conviction. Dodik has held political office in Bosnia, in various capacities, since 1998. Dodik plans to hold a referendum next month. But, as Stojanović points out, public opinion won’t change the law. (European Western Balkans) Ćao
Opportunities
Lawfare is hiring for an Associate Editor.
I’ll have more announcements! Sorry - it’s August….
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Ufff this title! 👏🏽 - can’t wait to read.
lots of digressions in this one lol!