Mr. Erdoğan's Neighborhood
Following Assad's fall in Syria, Russia and Iran are down. Turkey is up. Can Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be a good neighbor to its south?
This will be our last full newsletter of 2024. (And what a year it’s been!) I’ll put out our Interruptrr end of year book list next Friday.
Last Sunday, Syria catapulted back into the headlines. After half a century, the brutal Assad dictatorship came to an end. President Bashar al-Assad, who ascended to power in 2000 after the death of his father Hafez, fled to Russia after the Islamic rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Liberation of the Levant, (HTS), swooped into the capital, Damascus and took control. HTS, along with a number of other groups, including the Kurds and ISIS, had been locked in a battle against the Assad regime for 13 years, following the Arab uprisings in 2011.
Regime change anywhere is noteworthy. In the Middle East, it is seismic, with global reverberations. Assad’s fall has completely reset power dynamics in the region and beyond. It has beat back Russian and Iranian influence and increased Turkey’s might.
In 2015, Russia eagerly helped Assad beat back opposition forces, both as a demonstration of its global relevance and to retain control of military bases that have been key to its activities in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, preoccupied with his own war in Ukraine, which has sapped resources, Putin, as AP notes, urged Assad “to engage in talks with moderate opposition groups” and the Turks in order to reach some sort of compromise. Assad refused. Moscow bailed.
Hailing from the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam, Assad became a convenient and necessary proxy for Iran against not only Israel, which borders Syria, but Saudi Arabia and Turkey, countries with both Sunni majorities. Nicole Grajewski notes that Iran poured between $30-50 billion to prop up Bashar Assad. 🤯 Following October 7, Israel has unleashed unimaginable destruction in not only Gaza but against the Iranian backed Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah, assassinating its leader Hasan Nasrallah and taking out senior commanders in a remote pager explosion operation. That neutered Iranian authority in not only Syria but the region.
All of this provided HTS the opportunity to mount an offensive against Assad. It did so with Turkey’s assistance. Back in 2011, amid the Arab uprisings, Turkey threw its lot with the Islamic rebels, then known as Jubat Al-Nusra, an offshoot of Al Qaeda, who wanted to depose Assad. The Turks, as Gönül Tol notes, allowed rebel groups “to use Turkish territory to organize and launch attacks,” against the regime. For the past decade, Turkish military presence in Idlib, a northwest Syrian town, protected and supported these rebels, who have since severed ties with Al Qaeda, but remain on America’s terrorist list. Now that HTS is in control in Damascus, Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, are the prime players to help shape what is to come in Syria.
What is to come remains to be seen. No doubt Erdoğan is peacocking in his Ankara palace, but ever the shrewd politician he is surely also preparing for a fight with the Kurds. Kurds make up about 20 percent of Turkey’s 85 million plus population, with another several million living in Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Ankara has long been wary of Kurdish separatism, having fought the Kurdistan Workers Party, better known as the PKK. It is a terrorist organization that has called for the establishment of a separate Kurdish state. In Syria, Turkey accuses the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection forces, known as the YPG, for collaborating with the PKK. The YPG has controlled the northeastern part of Syria, which sits on oil reserves, for some time. According to Amberin Zaman, Turkish proxies have advanced on Kurdish held territory, “vowing to crush terrorist organizations.”
“Crushing” terrorist organizations is something that the US is also eager to do, even if it differs on what constitutes a terrorist. 👀 For the Americans, YPG is not one, but HTS is, leaving Turkey to be the main interlocutor between the group and Washington. Indeed, as Tol notes, a post-Assad Syria is a chance for Erdoğan to repair his strained relations with the US.
How Turkey fares with others in the region remains to be seen. HTS’s rise, as Mona Yacoubian notes, “marks the restoration of Sunni power in the heart of the Middle East and could presage Syria becoming a new Gulf ally,” especially as Syria turns to reconstruct. Arab states will be eager to keep HTS focused on rebuilding Syria, rather than inspiring opposition forces to rise up elsewhere and keeping its rule moderate, inclusive for the numerous minority groups in the country — and on their side, not Turkey’s.
Then there is China. Beijing hosted Assad last year where Xi Jinping announced China’s “strategic partnership” with Syria, pledging support for reconstruction. It has poured several millions into Syria. In 2022, Syria signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. At the UN, China vetoed about 10 resolutions that were directly critical of Assad’s regime. This week, China noted that “the future and destiny of Syria should be decided by the Syrian people, and…that all relevant parties will find a political solution to restore stability and order as soon as possible.”
No doubt one of the relevant parties that Beijing is eyeing is Turkey. China and Turkey have recently worked to deepen ties, with Erdoğan pursuing membership in the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The Turkish president’s eagerness to engage with these “eastern” outfits has made him a valuable partner for China — and, thereby, a key player on the global stage.
It is a role that Erdoğan has long sought. Trying to fulfill it in a post-Assad Syria will be tricky. While Erdoğan holds a strong hand at the moment, he is not Syria’s leader — and, ultimately, does not have Syrians interests at heart. The Turkish president is eager to repatriate the three million Syrian refugees in Turkey. (This is also something EU leaders have expressed about Syrians in their own countries.) He also wants to see a stable government to work and trade with on its southern border. But just as we’ve seen when the US has gotten involved in any given region, there is a risk that Turkey will prioritize its interests over Syria’s. That is sure to backfire. At a moment when the Levant has become Mr. Erdoğan’s neighborhood he would be wise to recognize that he is ultimately a neighbor, not the landlord. — Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Syria
Where does Syria go now? There are concerns that the Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir Sham (HTS) that toppled the Assad regime will only turn Syria into Afghanistan. Lina Khatib notes that after 13 years of civil war, even HTS has an interest in seeing Syria succeed. So let’s not rush to judgement. (The Prospect)
Why did Iran allow Assad’s downfall? The Islamic regime spent $30-50 billion in Syria, only to realize that Assad was not the horse to bet on, writes Nicole Grajewski. (Carnegie Endowment)
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is the 42-year-old head of HTS. Born in Syria, in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, his family moved to Saudi Arabia. There is concern that as an Islamist with previous ties to Al Qaeda, Jolani will not be better than Assad, which is what Anchal Vohra seems to believe. (Foreign Policy)
Dareen Khalifa has met and spent time with Jolani. She talks about her impressions of him and what’s to come for Syria. (Pod Save the World)
Preventing further tragedy will require Western countries and Gulf Arab states, in particular, to reach out to the new leaders in Damascus and steer them toward pragmatic, if not democratic, governance, say Natasha Hall and Joost Hiltermann. (Foreign Affairs)
US
TikTok risks being banned in the US beginning as early as January 2025 as government officials fear that the social media app is allowing Chinese surveillance to access Americans’ personal information. Greta Cross has the facts. (USA Today)
The killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson has sparked an interesting reaction in the US…to say the least. Emma Brockes on why all of this only makes sense in America. (The Guardian)
Africa
In Ghana, former president John Mahama won the country’s elections. Justice Baidoo notes that it all came down to kenkey, a beloved starchy side dish — and the high price people were paying for it. (Christian Science Monitor)
Asia
In Afghanistan, the Taliban has banned women from medical training, particularly in midwifery. Zahra Joya, Kiana Hayeri, and Mélissa Cornet write about the Afghan women activists who are fighting back. (Chatham House)
After President Yoon’s attempt to impose martial law and his subsequent failed impeachment, what happens next for South Korea? Sheila Smith and Duyeon Kim discuss. (CFR)
The last few months — especially after the fall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August — have seen Hindutva influence seeping into Bangladesh, likely originating with India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Snigdhendu Bhattacharya lays out the situation. (The Diplomat)
The Americas
In Haiti, gang members killed about 110 elderly people after a gang leader’s son died of a mysterious illness. Vanessa Buschschlüter on the devastating event. (BBC)
Europe
In Romania, the country’s constitutional court annulled the results of the first round of the presidential election, citing Russian interference. A far-right unknown candidate Calin Georgescu garnered 23 percent in the first round held on November 23, which left everyone scratching their heads. Paula Erizanu underscores the dangers of disinformation and election interference. (Guardian)
As we noted last week, France lost yet another prime minister — the third this year. In this long profile, Lauren Collins reflects on the country’s “brazen” president, Emmanuel Macron, and his otherwise deluded politics, aka Macronology. (New Yorker)
In Georgia, the human rights crisis is at risk of getting worse due to the government’s violent response to mass protests. Iskra Kirova and Giorgi Gogia weigh in. (HRW)
Middle East
Bye-bye Bibi (and hopefully Yoav, too). Last week, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. All over the world, leaders have made statements concerning whether they plan to comply with the warrants. Rebecca Ingber compiled them all for us. (Just Security)
Science and Climate Change
Extreme weather is increasingly common these days. Hurricanes and extreme storms are revealing how vulnerable cities and towns are impacted, particularly their water supply. Micheline Maynard clues us in. (Time)
Technology
Australia just sparked the debate over age restrictions on social media — again. Whether these bans really keep kids safe is unclear, but it seems that officials will continue to bring up the idea, time and time again. Gemma Conroy with the story. (Nature)
Under the Radar
Femicide in Lebanon has only gotten worse since the pandemic. In order to put an end to it, the root cause must be addressed. Former Minister of State for Economic Empowerment and Youth and founder of the charity “Indeed Better Together,” Violette Khairallah, gives us suggestions. (Wilson Center)
Opportunities
The White House Fellowship has opened.
Applications for the Young Professionals in Foreign Policy’s Rising Experts Program close on December 15.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith