Never 51
Canada votes on Monday—and Trump is driving them to the polls.
It’s Earth Week, let’s be aware and support efforts to reverse climate change. WEDO is one of my favs.
I have lots of thoughts about Trump’s latest on Ukraine, which would have the US recognize Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, where my father was born, that can be summed up in two words. 🤬
While I put something together on that, I’m thrilled to have Arabella Bowen take the pen today. On Monday, Canadians head to the polls to vote for a new government. Six months ago, that vote would have easily gone to the conservatives. After Trump took over the White House and started talking about making our northern neighbor the 51st state, things changed. This week, Arabella, a Canadian-American, dishes on that change. Check out her terrific Substack, The Layover, about solo travel.
There are lots of italics in today’s Elsewhere section, simply because, I couldn’t find pieces by women! Which goes to prove, why this newsletter is necessary. Some more 🤬
Don’t forget to click the 🖤 above to support the newsletter—and, please, share with others. It helps women! If you ❤️ the newsletter, please become a paid subscriber. — Elmira
Back in November, if you’d told me Canada’s Liberal Party was about to mount a major comeback, I’d have raised an eyebrow.
I was over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. After nine years as PM, I was starting to appreciate the two-term limits the US sets on elected heads of state. If his party was going to survive the next federal election it needed a new face—and new energy.
And yet, the Liberals are now the odds on favorite to win Monday’s election—the party’s fourth government since 2015. A historic run, especially considering that just weeks ago, Pierre Poilievre—a strident populist who Donald Trump and Elon Musk endorsed—and his Progressive Conservative Party looked poised for a decisive win, even an all-out rout.
But then came Trump 2.0.
At first, it sounded like a sideshow: Trump calling Trudeau “governor” on Truth Social and referring to Canada as the 51st state. Then the trolling started to feel like a real threat. Brutal tariffs rolled out. Elon Musk tweeted (then deleted) that “Canada isn’t a real country.” Border tensions spiked.
Canadians don’t do hot-blooded nationalism. We don’t pledge allegiance to the flag. We’re better known for saying sorry when someone else bumps into us. But when your louder, larger neighbor starts talking about swallowing you whole, the (hockey) gloves come off.
Liquor stores pulled Kentucky bourbon from the shelves. A petition to revoke Musk’s Canadian citizenship—he’s South African, Canadian, and American, in that order—drew nearly 400,000 signatures. “Never 51” merch flooded Etsy. Then came Mike Myers, ending an SNL episode in a “Canada Is Not for Sale” T-shirt and mouthing “elbows up”—a cheeky hockey phrase turned cultural rallying cry.
That unity wasn’t just cultural—it had political consequences.
At the dawn of what many Canadians now consider the “biggest crisis in our lifetimes,” Trudeau announced on January 6 that he’d step down as prime minister.
In Canada, there’s no vice-PM waiting in the wings. Unlike Biden anointing Harris his successor last summer, Canadian party leaders can’t be named by the outgoing boss. They’re elected by party members at a leadership convention.
Into this chaos stepped Mark Carney—former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and, until recently, a quiet backstage presence in Canadian politics. An economist born in Fort Smith, Northwest Territories, and raised in Edmonton, Alberta, Carney speaks only passable French (fluency in both official languages is a tacit requirement of any PM). He didn’t even hold a seat in parliament.
But in this existential moment, he struck the right note: calm, competent, grown-up. A Canadian counterweight who got Canada through the 2008 financial crisis in better shape than the US, with well-placed friends in Europe, too.
Carney won the Liberal leadership in a landslide and was sworn in as prime minister on March 14. Conscious that he needed a mandate to govern—not to mention an elected seat-nine days later, he called a snap election for April 28, kickstarting a brisk 37-day campaign. In Canada, federal elections are blissfully short. No endless 18-month slogs. You set a date and sprint.
Here in New York, where I’ve lived for the last 20 years, I’ve never been more glued to a Canadian election. I’m watching like it’s a sudden-death overtime hockey game: heart pounding, swearing at the refs.
But as a dual citizen, I’m also voting. When I received my mail-in ballot three weeks ago, I immediately voted for my local Liberal candidate. Canadians don’t vote directly for a prime minister. We vote for a local Member of Parliament (MP). The party with the most votes forms a government and that party’s leader becomes prime minister. I put the ballot in its enclosing envelopes and went straight to the post-office. I seriously couldn’t vote Liberal fast enough.
I’m not alone.
Canada has five federal parties that vie for seats in the 343 seat parliament. But since Trump started threatening our sovereignty, it’s now a two-man race. Some friends didn’t even bother watching the leaders’ debates last week. “I’m voting Liberal. It doesn’t matter,” one texted, before asking, “but who’s winning?”
In 1995, I lived in the French-speaking Canadian province of Quebec when it held a nail-biting referendum to secede altogether from Canada and form its own independent country—a vote it lost by less than one percent of the vote. Back then, the country felt like it was splitting in two. Now, even lifelong Quebec separatists are also planning to vote Liberal, many for the first time. “I think it’s pointless to be a sovereigntist if we become the 51st state,” one told the Globe and Mail last week.
Poilievre still has momentum—especially in parts of the West, like Alberta (Canada’s comp to Texas). His base is also passionate, like Trump’s. And some of the issues he has hammered the Liberal Party on are absolutely legit.
But the tone has shifted. What started as a campaign about housing and affordability has become something bigger: a referendum on who gets to define Canada—and, more importantly, who doesn’t. #elbowsup — Arabella
Arabella Bowen is a Canadian-born, naturalized American citizen who lives in NYC. She is the Co-founder & COO of SoloTrvlr, empowering women to travel boldly. It has a new Substack, The Layover — let’s show our love. You can also follow her here: arabellabowen.substack.com
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Pope Francis
Walking the walk: Pope Francis’ call for a ceasefire in Gaza is well known. What might not have been is that he called the Holy Family Church in Gaza every night since Oct 7, 2023. In his last appearance, he called for peace in the region, but will anyone listen, asks Belén Fernández? (Al Jazeera)
Ukrainian ultimatum
So that “in a day” peace deal Trump promised hasn’t worked out. Tired of trying to reach a peace deal, Trump has indicated that he would be willing to capitulate, which is something his fellow Republicans and white shoe lawyers do, to Putin’s demands: recognize Crimea and ensure Ukraine does not join NATO. Following Russian attacks on Kyiv this week, Trump did manage to muster a “Vladimir STOP!” Many pundits have pointed out that recognizing Russian control of Crimea would reverse more than a decade of US policy—and that aggression ultimately works. Yes and yes, because US policy has been inconsistent, paying lip service to sovereignty when it suits them and turning a blind eye when it doesn’t. It’s Friday morning, and I couldn’t find a good piece on this… more to come.
Tariffs and trade wars
China is not messing around. It released a statement noting that Trump needs to drop all his tariffs before they’d consider coming to the table. And Trump dropping those tariffs is not a far-fetched idea. He continually changes his mind, yes, just like a five-year old.
Trump’s tariffs are driving a gold rush, writes Nicole Narea. (Vox)
What happened in those US-Iran talks?
US and Iranian officials will meet again this weekend in Oman, which has been serving as a go-between for the two sides. It will be the third round of indirect talks. That’s an important point, Motahareh Heydari notes. Given the US side’s inexperience, repped by Steve Witkoff, who I’ve already pointed out has no experience other than buying and selling real estate. The Iranians, who are already deeply skeptical of the US and the Trump team, in particular, want to see if Trump will back off his maximalist pressure. So do we. (Stimson Center)
US
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio unveiled a reorganization of the State Department. What does it entail and how did we get here? Dani Schulkin, Tess Bridgeman, and Andrew Miller lay it out. (Just Security)
RIP the Millenium Challenge Corporation, aka MCC, started under George W. Bush. The agency tasked to support economic development worldwide got DOGEd.
Africa
Three separate but interesting developments out of Africa this week…all have to do with standing for elections.
In Côte d'Ivoire, a court disqualified opposition candidate Tidjane Thiam from running in the October elections, which Katarina Hoije and Kamailoudini Tagba say may spark instability in the country, as incumbent President Alassane Ouattara, 83, will go for a fourth term. (Bloomberg)
And you thought Joe Biden was old. Okay, he was.
Congo banned the party of former President Joseph Kabila, accusing him of having ties to the Rwandan militia group, M23. Kabila had been living in South Africa for the past two years and word is that he might pose a challenge to current leader, Félix Tshisekedi.
Meanwhile, in Tanzania, officials arrested John Heche, deputy leader of the opposition for leading protests against the arrest of Tundu Lissu, the opposition leader. The country holds elections this October.
Asia
JD Vance visited India this week. The country’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, hailed the common culture and commitment to democracy both India and the US share or, well, shared.. 👀 “But beneath the ceremonial optics lies a more complex geopolitical context,” writes Rana Ayyub. The US-India relationship is far more fragile, asymmetrical and contradictory than either side would publicly admit. (Washington Post)
Twenty-six Indian tourists died in an attack in the disputed territory of Kashmir this week. India and Pakistan have been fighting over the territory for nearly 80 years. India has said that the Pakistani militant group, The Resistance Front, was behind the attack. The country has threatened to cut off water to Pakistan. Rhea Mogul, Aishwarya Iyer and Sophia Saifi lay out the moving parts of this precarious situation. (CNN)
War has not only killed and destroyed in Afghanistan, it has also devastated the country’s environment, write Tanya Goudsouzian Zekria Barakzai. “From poisoned water sources to barren lands, the natural world has become another casualty of the war.” (Responsible Statecraft)
The Americas
El Salvador’s “state of exception” is serving as a model for Trump, as he pushes immigration cases offshore and is quashing free expression, writes Jordana Timerman. (Guardian)
Sigh.
Also, pull up a chair and break out the popcorn to watch Colombia’s politics this week. The country’s foreign minister accused the president, Gustavo Petro, of being a drug user. For his part, Petro said that the US cancelled his visa but said “I didn’t really need a visa, but anyway, I’ve already seen Donald Duck several times, so I’ll go see other things.”
Who says foreign policy isn’t full of zingers?
Middle East
Following Assad’s fall in Syria, Israel has pushed aside overtures from the country’s new ruler, Ahmed al-Shara, to increase military activity in southern Syria. That’s not only a mistake but a missed opportunity to isolate Iran, write Shira Effron and Danny Citrinowicz. (Foreign Affairs)
On Syria, with Shara in power, can the country realize the hopes of the revolution? Alia Malek believes it can, in this interesting podcast with Sasha Polakow-Suransky. (Counterpoint)
Europe
Ukrainians have resisted Russia’s aggression for years. Since the full-scale invasion of their country in 2022, Ukrainian women in particular have taken on important roles on the frontlines, in civil society, and at home. Gražina Bielousova’s research examines how Ukrainian leftist feminists advocate for their causes at home and abroad, facing distinct sets of challenges as they attempt to defend their country. (FPRI)
Russia may have big ambitions to rule in Russian-speaking areas. Yet, as Kseniya Kirillova points out, its government has failed to manage the simplest elements of governance. (CEPA)
Science and Climate Change
Need some Earth Day optimism? Alina Hartounian is here for you with terrific organizations working to improve the planet. (NPR)
Under the Radar
Ladies! Unite! Female bonobos fend off male aggression through girl groups. (AP)
Opportunities
Americans for Responsible Innovation has two openings, one for a Director of Government Affairs and another for a Policy Analyst.
Women Moving Millions is hiring for a Communications Manager.
Americas Quarterly is looking for an Editor.
In London, Chatham House has a posting to be the Director of the US and Canada Programme. (Their unfortunate spelling, not mine).
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
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