Out of the Shadow — and Into the Fire?
Iran and Israel's shadow war has ended. Will there be a wider war in the Middle East?
Chag Pesach sameach!
Happy birthday Sabrina and Lisa!
As we “celebrate” Earth Day on Monday, let’s remember that the planet we inhabit is a reflection of us. Let’s do better. 🌍
The shadow war that Iran and Israel have been locked in for the past several decades, through proxy hits, targeted assassinations and cyber attacks, has ended.
Last Saturday night into Sunday morning, Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones at the Nevatim air base in the Negev desert. It marked the first time the Islamic Republic directly targeted the Jewish state. Iranian leaders said that it did so in retaliation to the April 1 attack on its consulate in Damascus, which killed 16, including a senior official from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
After the proverbial dust settled on Sunday morning, everyone seemed relieved that this unprecedented attack on Israel resulted in only one casualty — the wounding of a 7-year old Bedouin girl. Holly Dagres dives in with details on the attack in her excellent Substack, The Iranist.
“You got a win. Take the win,” said US President Joe Biden in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday. His advice: don’t retaliate. The US did not support an Israeli operation to do so. As Steven Cook notes in a CFR briefing call, the use of “did not” is key. It is different from “will not.”
Israel has retaliated. Last night into Friday morning, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) targeted a military base near Isfahan. The news is still unfolding, but it appears that the “scope” and fallout are limited. Phew? At the NYT, Cassandra Vinograd writes:
“President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran had warned that ‘the tiniest act of aggression’ on his country’s soil would draw a response. But in the hours after Israel’s strike, there have been no public calls for retribution by Iranian officials.”
Israel is reeling from October 7. Political hubris and an intelligence failure blinded the Israeli leaders to Hamas’s assault. In a coalition with hardline right wingers, Benjamin Netanyahu reacted not just with force, but with vengeance — in Gaza and northern Israel. Fearing a strike from the north, from Hezbollah, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has exchanged rocket and artillery fire between Lebanon. Then, eager to show strength and “deterrence,” it bombed Iran’s consulate in Syria. The NYT notes that this was a gross miscalculation. Israel’s action compelled Tehran to break out of the cautious and sober posture it had assumed after October 7, careful to avoid getting dragged into a wider war.
Was that why its bombardment on the Israeli air base on Saturday failed?
Iranian officials announced the strike beforehand, giving time for Israel and its allies, the US and neighboring Arab states to prepare. It worked. Israel’s “Iron Dome” along with air support from the US, UK, France, and Jordan intercepted 300 Iranian missiles and drones. Niha Masih, Loveday Morris, Julia Ledur, and others provide a useful explainer. In a statement following the attack, Iran said that “the matter can be deemed concluded.” We see that it is not.
Benjamin Netanyahu is a hawk who, accused of corruption, is politically unpopular and, therefore, vulnerable. He is reliant on a trigger-happy right wing coalition to stay in power — and out of the courtroom where he is on trial for bribery and fraud charges. Yet, his handling of the war on Hamas, with its scope and brutality, has drawn global criticism and isolated Israel.
Isolation is something Iran knows well. Since 1979, when it became the Islamic Republic, it has not had diplomatic relations with the US. Its pursuit to enrich uranium, a key component of nuclear weapons, has resulted in serious economic sanctions. Iran’s economy and its people have suffered.
Both Israel and Iran want to break out of isolation and, like any state, thrive. Before October 7, both had been pursuing rapprochement with Arab neighbors. Last year, China helped broker normalization between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Donald Trump orchestrated the “Abraham Accords,” a peace agreement between Israel the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Biden was hoping to extend that to Israel and Saudi Arabia before October 7. He still does, using it as leverage to bring Israel to the negotiating table and work out a peace agreement with the Palestinians and the creation of a Palestinian state.
Peace and a Palestinian state seem far off at the moment. Yet, Israel’s limited retaliation on Iran, following Iran’s failed strike on Israel indicate that neither country wants to widen hostilities. In a region that has known far too much tragedy, that’s a win. Sadly, it is unlikely to be the end. — Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Iran-Israel
Israel says it will hit back at Iran. Julia Frankel and Jack Jeffery say that poses a number of risks — to Israel, including increasing global isolation and a multi-pronged war. (AP)
Can the US prevent Iran and Israel from going to war? Maybe, says Suzanne Maloney, if Washington can pressure Netanyahu to stand down and convincingly threaten Iran that the US will respond if it takes further actions towards Israel. (Foreign Affairs)
Who is the real aggressor, Iran or Israel? Belén Fernández is here to remind us about Israel’s assault on Gaza. (Al Jazeera)
FISA - Section 702
Ladies, there is one man who can and does listen: Uncle Sam.
This week, something called Section 702 was all the rage on Capitol Hill. Here’s why: Back in 1978, Congress passed the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). It established procedures for the surveillance and collection of foreign intelligence on domestic soil. Yeah, it was because of Watergate. The George W. Bush administration used it following 9/11 as a basis to monitor phone calls and messages of “foreign persons” (and, as we learned from Edward Snowden, Americans connected to suspicious foreign persons) by pushing for and passing Section 702.
That section was set to expire on April 19. The US House of Representatives reauthorized Section 702 this week after it appeared it might not. Politicos from both the left and right do not like FISA (including Donald Trump), claiming it violates civil liberties. (It does.) Still, representatives managed to extend the legislation for another two years. Now, it goes to the Senate for a vote.
The devil is in the details, says Caitlin Vogus. She argues that Section 702 will only give the US government more surveillance powers. (The Guardian)
Listen: How did House members come to an agreement on Section 702? Did they take on board issues of civil liberties? Will the Senate vote for it? Molly Reynolds, Stephanie Pell, Jen Patja, Benjamin Wittes, and Preston Marquis discuss. (Lawfare)
Earth Day
Poor Earth Day, gets overlooked amid wars and spying….
Dubai was hit by heavy rainfall followed by widespread flash flooding that killed 18 people on Sunday and Monday. Both Oman and UAE have previously warned that climate change will lead to worse flooding, Rasha Al Ebrahim and Talek Harris with more on the recent climate disaster. (Al-Monitor)
Listen: Here’s a really good reason to care about climate change: chocolate. Sarah Holder tracks the origins of the cocoa crisis. (Big Take)
The US should invest more in clean-energy development in the Mekong region, according to Jessica Teets, Abshir Adam, Rapeethorn Kashemsant Na Ayuthaya, and Wei Liang in their recent report. Since 1995, the Mekong River has produced 167 hydropower plants and continues to play a key role in regional energy demand. (Foreign Policy Research Institute)
Around 20 million people in Southern Africa are facing “acute hunger” as a harsh drought ravages the area. Somini Sengupta and Manuela Andreoni say scientists believe this particular drought is driven by El Niño more so than global warming. (NYT)
US
Last week’s trilateral summit between the US, Philippines, and Japan highlighted the importance of US military and economic engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Erin Murphy and Gregory Poling dig into the economic aspect of the meeting, an overlooked outcome and priority for both Washington and regional players. (CSIS)
Getting tough with China. Joe Biden slapped tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports. Khushboo Razdan explains why and how this factors in US efforts to “stabilize” US-China economic ties. (South China Morning Post)
Africa
April 15 marked a year since Sudan’s brutal civil war began. The fallout is stunning. More than 10.7 million people have fled their homes. Tens of thousands have died. The country is on the brink of famine. Jehanne Henry on what she says is the world’s forgotten war and the need to stop the flow of arms (coming from the UAE) and sit down for viable peace talks. (Middle East Institute)
One year into Sudan’s civil war, Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy explain the extent of the humanitarian crisis. (CFR)
A global conference on Sudan held in Paris on Monday raised $2.1 billion for humanitarian relief in Sudan.
Asia
India’s elections kick off on April 19 with current PM Narendra Modi poised to win. Priya Chacko wonders how democratic these elections, in the self-proclaimed “mother of democracy,” will be, given Modi’s undemocratic tactics. (The Conversation)
When people talk about the resurrection of grand power rivalries, they reference the US, Russia, and China. Don’t discount India, say Elizabeth Threlkeld, Sania Shahid, Amrita Jash, and Andrew Latham. In this “Adults in the Room” series, in cooperation with the Stimson Center, they consider India’s role in the world. (Inkstick Media)
Last week’s legislative elections in South Korea left President Yoon Suk-yeol and his People Power Party (PPP) weaker than before. Kayla Orta evaluates how these results will impact Yoon’s domestic and foreign policy. (Wilson Center)
The Americas
The US will reimpose sanctions on Venezuela for failing to allow free elections. That will hurt Venezuelans but won’t yield the political results that it seeks, argues Farah Stockman. (NYT)
Gender-based violence is at the core of Mexico’s security issues. Gema Kloppe-Santamaría discusses the importance of recognizing the severity of violence against women, especially in an election year. (Americas Quarterly)
Europe
Watch: Congress is locked in a heated battle over Ukraine funding. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Amna Nawaz that without that aid, Ukraine can’t win against Russia. (PBS Newshour)
European elections have been leaning far right for the past few years. The recent presidential win for Peter Pellegrini in Slovakia has prompted worries that the far right is also moving further and further toward a pro-Putin stance. Armida van Rij fills us in on what this means for Europe, especially when it comes to Ukraine. (The Guardian)
The Georgian government has reintroduced a once-defeated, Soviet-influenced “foreign agents” bill, much to the distaste of its people. Elene Panchulidze explains that Georgians are bracing themselves for a tough uphill battle against the bill’s passing. (Euronews)
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to China this week. Maybe he should have stayed home. The trip, Judy Dempsey, says confirmed Germany’s weakness. It’s unable to lead on Ukraine and has failed to step up on the war in Gaza. That came to light as Scholz tried to scold Xi Jinping on human rights. (Carnegie Europe)
Middle East
In Iran, the country’s leaders are closer to passing the Hijab and Chastity Bill. Yeah, it is what you think. Women could face even worse restrictions than before the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini and the protests her death sparked. As the UN considers the Crimes Against Humanity Treaty, which Annie Pforzheimer and Shabnam Nasimi wrote about a few weeks back, it should consider this and include gender apartheid into the language, says Shadi Sadr. (Just Security)
Israeli killings of World Central Kitchen (WCK) aid workers in Gaza were a major turning point in international opinion, with many unable to excuse Israel’s belligerent behavior. In Israel, however, the response has not yielded such results, writes Emily Tamkin. (Slate)
Is Israel a “settler-colonial” state? Haleema Shah lays out the debate. (Vox)
The UN Security Council will hold a vote on April 19 on Palestinian membership to the global body. Algeria, which holds a rotating seat put forward the proposition, which the US is against, and will likely exercise its veto power to stop it. Michelle Nichols on the intricacies of the resolution, which needs at least nine to pass - and no vetoes. (Reuters)
In 2012, the UN General Assembly granted Palestine non-member observer state status, which was a big deal at the time. The US, Israel, Canada, and Czech Republic voted against it. (41 abstained). Look at all the things you learn here.
Technology
World capitals are eager to incorporate AI into defense, even if they’re slow to adopt regulation on how to use it. The US Department of Defense is case in point. It says AI will “improve efficiency, innovation, and national security.” Janet About Elias, Lillian Mauldin, and William Hartung warn that based on the evidence, particularly Lavender, an AI program Israel has deployed, it will lead to more casualties and destruction. (Responsible Statecraft)
With so many elections around the world this year, how are tech companies keeping elections free from disinformation that undermines the democratic process? In short, they’re not. Yasmeen Serhan clues us in. (Time)
Under the Radar
How does literature transform the world of tyranny? Melissa Chan explains how nonfiction comics projects introduced readers to the tyranny of the regime, especially life under Iran and Cuba’s authoritarianism. (New Lines Magazine)
Tibetan monks, nuns, and residents did everything they could to resist the building of a Chinese dam that threatened their mountain community of Derge. Alessandra Bergamin dives deep on what the protest videos reveal. (Waging Nonviolence)
In September, UN Secretary General António Guterres will host the Summit of the Future. His aim is to update the multilateral system for today’s world and beyond. UN member states are currently working on a Pact for the Future, a blueprint for global cooperation in the 21st century. Minh-Thu Pham on the challenges of making that “pact” meaningful. She says to think like a bride. (Carnegie Endowment)
Opportunities
Didn’t get to this this week, sorry!
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith