People Are Not Stupid
On elections in South Africa & India. The incumbent parties leaned on identity politics, rather than bread and butter issues. They suffered setbacks.
Happy birthday Maryum!
It’s dangerous to underestimate voters. That is something the ruling parties and the rulers in South Africa and India hopefully took away from recent elections. Both clung onto power leaning heavily into identity politics, under the assumption that who you are is more important than how you’re doing. The average South African and Indian struggling to make ends meet said, “I don’t think so.” Voters withdrew support for the ruling parties, leaving both the dominant parties in South Africa and India to form coalition governments — and, perhaps, change.
South Africa
In South Africa, Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress (ANC) lost the absolute majority in the 400-seat parliament that it has held for the past 30 years. On May 29, it only managed to garner 42 percent of the vote, falling short of the 201 seats needed to form a government on its own.
That’s where things get interesting.
Over 50 parties registered to run in the national election (which, as an American, is something I cannot comprehend.) According to the AP, there are even more registered for provincial races. For the first time, independent candidates were able to appear on the ballot. There are only three parties that hold the key to South Africa’s next government. Two are ANC breakaway parties and one is the country’s main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance. One of these is most likely to form a government with the ANC.
MK: One of the two ANC breakaway parties is the left leaning populist MK, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party. MK is the party of former South African president and ANC chair Jacob Zuma. Sarah Dean and David McKenzie note that Zuma, who was forced to resign as president and from the ANC in 2018, has been a fierce critic of current president Cyril Ramaphosa and eager to get revenge on the ANC. Through the MK, he’s done just that, garnering 15 percent of the vote.
EFF: The other is the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), formed by former ANC youth leader, Julius Malema. On its website, EFF says it is “a radical and militant economic emancipation movement.”
DA: The third party that the ANC could turn to is the Democratic Alliance (DA). The DA has already come out saying that it would do everything to prevent an ANC-MK-EFF coalition. We’ll see about that.
Most of the analysis is focused on the ANC’s missteps — how and why it has lost support. Voters, particularly young ones, are fed up with ongoing electrical shortages and concerned about the country’s unemployment rate, which stands at 40 percent, the world’s highest. Lydia Polgreen sees the ANC’s setback as an opportunity for it to refocus.
She writes that the end of apartheid 30 years ago was a beginning, not an end.
The business of ending apartheid as a form of government in South Africa is over. It is never coming back. But if this election tells us anything, it is that the work of building a true multiracial democracy has really just begun.
That building includes creating opportunity for people and enabling social mobility. Freedom means nothing if there is no chance at progress. That was definitely the message voters in India sent to strongman Narendra Modi.
India
In India, 642 million voters were eligible to cast votes over a six-week period that ended on June 1. The incumbent president, Narendra Modi, and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had projected confidence in a massive victory, possibly over 400 seats in the 543 lower house of parliament. On Tuesday, results revealed that the BJP had only won 240, a loss of 63 seats from 2019. It falls below the 272 necessary for a single-party majority. As in South Africa, the BJP must work with other parties to form a government.
How it will work, rather than who it will work with is what matters. That is because at the center of Indian politics is Narendra Modi. Yamini Aiyar notes, in this FP Live discussion, that Modi’s misstep in this election was making it about him, rather than Indians.
Modi is a Hindu nationalist who has pushed an anti-Muslim narrative. In January, he inaugurated a Hindu temple in Ayodhya, in Uttar Pradesh. The temple was the site of a former mosque, which Hindu extremists burned down in 1992. Voters in Uttar Pradesh turned away from him and the BJP, dropping the party’s representation from 62 seats down to 33.
The Economist notes:
The election shows that Indians are united by a desire for development, not their Hindu identity. Solving India’s huge problems, including too few good jobs, requires faster urbanization and industrialization, which in turn depend on an overhaul of agriculture, education, internal migration and energy policy.
India’s economy has grown over the past decade that Modi has been in power. Yet, 60 percent of the country’s 1.3 billion population live on less than $3.10 a day. Modi has been generous with welfare programs. Last year, he announced free food grains to more than 800 million Indians. That certainly won him votes in the south, where the BJP has struggled. But as Sushmita Pathak notes, these programs “provide immediate relief, but fail to address structural issues that block the country’s poorest from a path to long-term prosperity.”
Ultimately, prosperity is something that all people, regardless of where they are want, for themselves and their children. This is not merely a matter of voting for the candidate that will most likely put them on that path. Voters will vote against an incumbent they feel has not delivered, even if they suspect that another candidate won’t either. A vote is an expression, a voice, regardless of class, educational background, or ethnicity. And sometimes that voice wants to say “fuck you.”
That’s what many expect Europeans will say this weekend, when nearly 450 million Europeans, from 27 EU member states, head to the polls to elect 720 members of the European parliament. It’s the first vote since Brexit in 2016. Despite the increasing threat Russia poses to the continent and the urgent need to stay united behind Ukraine, far right parties who are skeptical of the war and angry over migration are expected to make significant gains, as voters grow increasingly weary of the status quo.
People aren’t stupid. Politicians shouldn’t risk treating them that way. — Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Amid the Trump verdict and Mexico and India election results, Biden made public a ceasefire proposal that Israel drew up. The White House sent it to Hamas and got behind it, without consulting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. What is in the proposal? While there is no author here, we’re linking to Middle East Eye, which has an exclusive copy of it. (Middle East Eye)
Elections
In this “super” election year, we need to increase the number of women elected to political leadership roles, say Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Binaifer Nowrojee. To ensure that that happens, governments and philanthropies must invest in empowering more women to see these positions. (Project Syndicate)
South Africa
In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) will have to work with another party to form a government. Which one? Qaanitah Hunter takes a look at the options and notes that no deal will be easy. (Al Jazeera)
After years of indifference, South Africans lined up — and waited to vote in the May 29 elections. Why did so many think this election was so important? Zukiswa Wanner has this on-the-ground “travelog” that gives us a first-hand look at South African voters. (African Arguments)
India
Watch: Going into India’s election, incumbent prime minister, Narendra Modi, was confident of a huge victory. That did not pan out. What should we make of the surprising results? Barkha Dutt discusses. (CNN)
Watch/Listen: From another perspective, Yamini Aiyar joined a discussion that considers India’s election results. (Foreign Policy)
Will Modi’s poor showing impact his power and influence? Kiran Sharma takes a look. (Nikkei Asia)
With PM Modi claiming victory in India’s elections, he and his party will be able to choose what to prioritize when it comes to scientific endeavors. Smriti Mallapaty worries, however, that Modi could be too invested in his own legacy, short-term wins, and industry funds. (Nature)
Mexico
Mexico elected its first woman president. How did we get here? Viri Ríos discusses the role of mandatory gender quotas in Mexican politics that has helped to foster gender parity. (Time)
Claudia Sheinbaum’s feminist credentials are under debate. What is not is her commitment to reproductive rights. In 2023, the Mexican supreme court removed abortion from the federal penal code. As the US moves in the opposite direction, Interruptrr Fellow Alice Driver asks, will American women have to cross the border to have reproductive rights? (CNN) Sadly, Alice, we think, the answer is yes.
Will the ascent of Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s next president, make her country Central America’s big sister? María Fernanda Bozmoski explains that the issues to focus on for the Sheinbaum administration are climate change, nearshoring, and migration. (Atlantic Council)
One of the biggest issues that Sheinbaum will have to tackle is gang violence. Annie Pforzheimer argues that one way to do that might be through public-private partnerships. Smart. (InSight Crime)
Mexico’s first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is inheriting a security crisis that her predecessor attempted, but failed, to solve using increased militarization. So far, Sheinbaum’s policies have looked pretty similar, but Gema Kloppe-Santamaria and Julia Zulver hope that she will recognize that this approach only increases violence, especially for women. (Wilson Center)
US
US President Joe Biden passed an executive order that limits, and effectively closes, access to the country’s southern border to migrants. Francesca Chambers evaluates the decision. (USA Today)
Following Biden’s announcement limiting asylum at the border, check out Diana Roy’s backgrounder on how the US asylum system works. (CFR)
June 6 marked the 80th anniversary of D-Day. President Biden joined other European leaders to commemorate the occasion. Annabelle Timsit, Cleve Wootson Jr., and Toluse Olorunnipa say he is also there for a state visit to discuss the struggle against authoritarianism in a global frame. (Washington Post)
Asia
In the latest escalation between North and South Korea, North Korea sent balloons of trash into the south. Yes, that’s weird. Li Zhou explains why. (Vox)
June 4 marked the 35th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests and subsequent massacre. Students led the protests back in 1989, calling for more individual rights and freedoms in a China that was growing more prosperous. Yangyang Cheng considers that incident with the recent campus protests in the US. It’s an interesting parallel. (The Nation)
Saying Hong Kong is dead is an injustice to local Hong Kongers living through repression, Sharon Yam and Jeffrey Wasserstrom say. Although experts claim the downfall of the city is fast-paced, the gutting of the city’s civil society by Beijing is moving very slowly. (New Lines Magazine)
Europe
The European far-right is poised to make big gains in the upcoming European parliamentary elections, but how could this affect the rest of the world? Marlene Laruelle touches on Russia-Ukraine, the Green Deal, Israel-Gaza, China, and more. (Euronews)
Last week, the White House gave Ukraine the green light to use US weapons inside Russian territory, but only near the border. It still won’t allow the use of long-range missiles in deep Russian territory. Meanwhile, Russia has signaled that it is willing to sit down and talk. Is it serious? Emma Ashford takes a look at the various elements at play, concluding that not only is there no end in sight for the war, but that the risk of escalation is real. (What is to be Done?)
Middle East
What will happen if Gaza ceasefire talks fail? Ellen Ioanes explains why a ceasefire is a matter of life and death for Palestinians. (Vox)
Democracies cannot get a pass when it comes to committing war crimes. Charli Carpenter dives in on the recent ICC arrest warrant requests for Hamas leaders and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. (WPR)
Listen: Iran has no tolerance for dissidents, anywhere. It is spending millions on trying to silence them abroad. In episode one of the latest season, Fariba Nawa examines the Iranian dissidents being targeted in Turkey. (On Spec)
Technology
Rather than competing with each other, the US and China should work together on AI development. Hadley Spadaccini has the details of a recent meeting between US and China envoys in Geneva to discuss AI risks and the need for global governance on AI. (Inkstick Media)
Opportunities
In DC, the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy has two positions open, one for a Media and External Relations Associate/Manager and another for a Fellowships Coordinator/Manager.
In NYC, the Bard MA in Sustainability is hiring for an Event Coordinator.
In DC, the Women’s Foreign Policy Group is on the hunt for a Program Associate.
In Chicago, the Obama Foundation has a position for a Vice President, Communications.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Pin-Shan Lai
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Emily Smith