All In: Poker Plays
Chess used to be the preferred metaphor for foreign policy. Maybe it's poker. On Ukraine's drone attack, Putin, and Trump's foreign policy moves.
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Chess has long been the go-to metaphor for foreign policy—a game of strategy, foresight, and calculation. You move based on what you think your opponent will do, not just what they’ve done. It's centuries old, dating back to 1624. That’s when playwright Thomas Middleton used chess in A Game at Chess to stage a critique of the British and Spanish empires power plays.
In 2025, I’m not sure it fits anymore.
This week alone, poker seems to better explain the world.
Know when to hold ‘em.
Last Sunday, Ukrainian drones penetrated deep inside Russia and destroyed about 40 Russian fighter bombers. It shocked everyone, setting off talk about the changed nature of warfare and how Ukraine still had “cards”—a reference to Donald Trump’s Oval Office meltdown claiming that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t “have the cards.”
That drone assault, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, showed that Ukraine had been preparing its hand for more than a year—largely out of necessity. In February 2024, the Republicans, at Trump’s behest, balked at authorizing more funds to arm and equip Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Even before Trump’s November victory, Kyiv doubled down on developing drones, which are cheap, scalable, and, as it proved last weekend, stealthy.
And Zelensky played his hand not in reaction to his White House humiliation, but just as Ukrainian and Russian delegations were meeting in Istanbul for tentative ceasefire talks—cutting the Russians down a notch.
Bluffing
That certainly pissed off Vladimir Putin—and unlike a seasoned poker player, he showed it. In a call with the US president this week, Putin made it clear that Russia would strike back. Expected perhaps, but certainly out of character for a “grand master.” For years, analysts have hailed Russia’s leader as a cold-eyed strategist, willing to make ruthless plays for political gains. This week Anastasia Edel pushed back on that myth:
As disruptive as he is, Putin is not a grand master but a gambler….Once an obscure KGB lieutenant colonel, Putin now portrays himself as a geopolitical grand master, shrewdly moving pieces on the world’s chess board. Yet the Russian leader is not executing a master plan but improvising in pursuit of a single goal: staying in power.
As we’ve seen with Israel’s Netanhayu and Turkey’s Erdoğan, when your priority is your personal preservation—and, in many instances, enrichment—you forgo the public interest and rely on the bluff, often projected through bluster, swagger, and aggression.
Up the ante
Aggressive is certainly how many describe Trump’s foreign policy. Not bound by precedent, tradition, ideology, or ethics, Trump is not afraid to take chances—and up the ante. That style is electrifying—and dangerous. We’ve witnessed over the last six months how Trump is comfortable with destroying alliances, large parts of government, higher education, America’s rich diversity, and the rule of law. All of it erodes US power—soft and hard. That may be to satisfy his MAGA base, to take revenge, or, even more cynically, to privatize select parts of the government—something Silicon Valley has been open about. This week Meta announced it was buying a nuclear plant in Illinois, to help power its push into artificial intelligence. And that’s the best case scenario.
Trump’s latest threats to end former BFF Elon Musk’s subsidies and contracts indicates that something more sinister is at hand. Pick your preferred term: authoritarianism, fascism, one-man rule. Amid the refusal to respect court decisions, escalating attacks on core institutions, and this week’s ban on citizens from 12+ countries from entering the US, Trump is taking a big gamble, without having a strong hand. That may be enough to win—or enough to burn the table down.—Elmira
Also I have no idea how to play poker.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
On Wednesday night the White House announced a ban on citizens from 12 countries from entering the US. It is not a coincidence that the list of 12 are much of the same places where the US has meddled—and left worse off. Now they’re just places where Trump can’t build a hotel.
Cuba - following the Spanish-American war in 1898, the US occupied Cuba. In 1901, after Cuba agreed to allow the US to intervene in the country under the Platt Amendment. The US did occupy Cuba in 1906.
Haiti - the US occupied Haiti from 1915-1938—and then propped up dictator Papa Doc and Jean Claude Duvalier throughout the Cold War.
Iran - in 1953 the CIA engineered a coup to overthrow the democratically elected prime minister, who moved to nationalize Iranian oil.
Congo - in 1961 the CIA struck again when it assassinated Congo’s leader, the pan-Africanist Patrice Lumbumba
Laos - The US secretly dropped bombs on Laos, which bordered Vietnam starting in 1964, in an effort to defeat the Viet Cong.
Afghanistan - In 1989, after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, the US went into support the mujahideen, Islamic fighters—the predecessor to the Taliban. Following the 9/11 attacks, the US went back in to oppose them in 2003—staying until 2021.
Ukraine
On Sunday, Ukraine destroyed about 40 strategic bombers—in Russia. Dubbed Operation Spiderweb, Ukraine set off a series of drones at four separate Russian airbases, one as far as 2.500 miles from Ukraine, using drones hidden in shipping containers. This has sent everyone into a tizzy, to say the least—about Ukraine’s fighting capabilities and how the country is changing the face of warfare. Kateryna Bondar on how Spiderweb is redefining asymmetric warfare. (CSIS)
Operation Spiderwebs was also a message to Ukraine’s doubters, writes Frida Ghittis. (World Politics Review)
Gaza
Listen: The devastation in Gaza continues. This week, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) shot 27 people who were trying to get food, most of them children. The Trump administration has put forward a ceasefire plan. Bronwen Maddox, Julie Norman, Yossi Mekelberg, and Stephen Farrell discuss: What future is even possible for Gaza now? (Chatham House)
South Korea elections
In South Korea, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung won Sunday’s presidential elections. While it was a victory over conservative and authoritarian-leaning Yoon Suk-yeol, who had declared martial law for a few hours back in December, the campaign showed disturbing signs that should worry women. Yoon famously attacked feminism and moved to shut down Korea’s gender ministry. Lee avoided gender issues. While he wants to “go beyond correcting Yoon’s strongman Presidency,” writes E. Tammy Kim, “his victory feels more like a reassertion of reality”—that reality being a deeply divided country. (New Yorker)
The gender divide is the most consistent feature of South Korean politics, write Joanna Elfving-Hwang and Ming Gao. “(P)opulist politicians have cultivated a perception among young men—squeezed by stagnant wages, fierce competition over jobs and social expectations—that their diminishing opportunities are due to policies they see as favoring women.” (The Conversation)
Polish elections
Meanwhile, in Poland, the far right celebrated Karol Nawrocki’s razor thin win as president. Though the role is largely ceremonial, it will pose a challenge to the country’s reform agenda and deeper EU integration, writes Monika Sus. (Carnegie Europe)
A passing of note…
Ayşe Seyitmuratova was a Crimean Tatar activist who fought on behalf of Crimean Tatars, who have endured persecution for centuries and are slowly being ethnically cleansed, as Russia continues to illegally occupy Crimea. She passed away on June 1 at the age of 88. (Mezha)
US
That big, beautiful budget bill will add $2.4 trillion to the debt and leave 10.9 million uninsured. Lisa Mascaro has the details. (AP)
But we’re all going to die anyway, right?
Honestly, you can’t make this stuff up.
Africa
Last Thursday, I attended a screening for the documentary Khartoum. If you get a chance to see it, do. It is inventive storytelling. More importantly, it humanizes the civil war in Sudan. After the screening, Tom Perriello, Biden’s envoy to Sudan, spoke about getting to peace. He noted that one of the mistakes made in peace negotiations is sitting down with the two sides inflicting destruction and harm—and excluding others, namely civil society actors, activists, and refugees.
Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza makes that point regarding the Rwanda-Congo conflict. She calls on the leaders from these countries to include opposition politicians and refugees in any peace agreement. (Al Jazeera)
Rwanda did it. Algeria is following. The country is shifting from French to English. Nourredine Bessadi has more. (Global Voices)
Asia
Wednesday marked the 36th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. It was the culmination of several weeks of student-led protests, demanding democratic reforms. By June 4, more than a million people filled the famous square in China’s capital. That night, China’s Communist Party sent in the military to clear them away. Any fear that China would face backlash evaporated as soon as it was clear that China was open for business, writes Elisha Maldonado. There are no consequences in capitalism. (The Hill)
The Americas
Last weekend, Mexico held elections to elect judges, the first country to hold elections for the ENTIRE judicial system. That’s 880 judges, including those at the Supreme Court. The problem, as Tanika Godbole points out, is that voters didn’t know the candidates. Not surprisingly, turnout was low. (DW)
Claudia Sheinbaum may be Mexico’s first female president, but it all started with Aurora Jiménez. She became Mexico’s first female congresswoman in 1954, when women still couldn’t exercise the right to vote, which they won the year prior. Carin Zissis on Jiménez’s story and how it explains the fight for Mexican women’s political rights, power, and equity. (Zocalo Public Square)
Things in Haiti continue to deteriorate. Nearly 6 million Haitians are experiencing severe hunger, with 8,400 face outright starvation while 2 million are already in an emergency phase, reports Jacqueline Charles (Miami Herald)
Europe
In the Netherlands, far-right leader Geert Wilders said his party would quit the government. He’s upset about inaction on a more aggressive asylum policy. This will inevitably force elections, but it’s not good news for stability. Laura Gozzi and Anna Holligan have more.(BBC)
Technology
Gendered disinformation is not just spreading falsehoods about women. As Carine Roos notes, it’s part of a system designed to punish women—a system that determines who gets to speak and who bears the consequences for doing so. It erodes the conditions under which women can access and remain in institutional spaces. (Tech Policy Press)
Under the Radar
Next month, civil society leaders and country representatives will descend on Seville, Spain for the Fourth International Conference on Financing and Development, FfD4. It will set the agenda for development finance—at a moment when the US has turned away from development aid and Trump has resurrected tariffs. Project Starling’s founder and CEO, Minh-Thu Pham talked to Jesse Chase-Lubitz about the conference and possible outcomes. (DevEx)
On the latest Power Shift, Hafsar Tameesuddin, a stateless Rohingya refugee and LGBTQ+ rights activist, and Raouf Mazou, one of the UN refugee agency’s highest-ranking officials, talk about refugees—how international organizations and governments protect them and how refugees feel. A timely discussion with Lina Srivastava. (New Humanitarian)
Opportunities
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Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief