Reality Bites
Trump's National Security Strategy is being hailed for returning to realism. Except, realism requires reality.
This will be my last regular newsletter of the year. I’ll publish my year end book list next Friday—and, then, plan to be off through the New Year. I’ll be back in early January.
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Yes, I did think about inserting a photo of Winona Ryder and Ethan Hawke. Gen X rules.
The Trump administration released its National Security Strategy last Thursday night without fanfare. Perhaps because it knew that its contents were enough to send shockwaves. And, boy, did it. You’ve no doubt heard and read a lot this week about the NSS—how it dismisses Europe and puts the transatlantic alliance at risk; how it devotes a lot of attention to the Western Hemisphere; how it barely mentions China; and, ultimately, how it upends the global order.
For me what stood out about the NSS was the claims it was a “return to realism.” Here’s the thing about realism: it requires a correct reading of reality. This is where Trump’s NSS collapses under its own claims
Western Hemisphere
Given the US’s sharply expanded military footprint across the Caribbean, it’s no surprise that the Western Hemisphere—really, Latin America—gets the most real estate in the NSS. Since August, the US has targeted vessels it claims were involved in drug trafficking—claims offered without evidence. This week, US forces went further, seizing a Venezuelan oil tanker in a maneuver straight out of the Houthi playbook—the Iranian-backed militia in Yemen known for hijacking ships in the Red Sea. As I’ve noted before, Team Trump justifies all this under the ever-expanding banner of “narcoterrorism.” And when everything is a terrorist, everything becomes a target.
The escalation has raised questions about whether the US might ultimately move against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump insists he wants to end wars—which should make an outright attack unlikely—but he is clearly tightening the screws. Venezuela’s opposition leader, María Corina Machado, this year’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has even applauded his actions, which is not very peace-prizey. And no matter one’s view of Maduro, the precedent is dangerous. Removing a ruler at gunpoint is historically disastrous—not just for the country but for the region the U.S. claims it is stabilizing.
Serious US engagement with Latin America is overdue. For decades the region has been treated as an afterthought—important enough to scold, never important enough to partner with. A reorientation could benefit both the US and the region. But that would require something closer to FDR’s Good Neighbor Policy—cooperation and respect for sovereignty—not the Monroe Doctrine Trump is reviving and rebranding as the “Donroe Doctrine.”
In refocusing America’s attention to Latin America, Trump claims he is prioritizing “America First,” yet he is openly meddling in other countries’ affairs—not only in Venezuela but in his support for Argentina’s Javier Milei, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, and his recent wading into Honduran politics. He may not be “nation building” but he is actively working to bend countries to his will—whether that’s good or bad for America.
Europe
This has been by far the most controversial section of the document, which dismisses Europe as a declining civilization no longer worth defending. Rebecca Lissner and Ulrike Franke have pieces that talk about the end of the transatlantic alliance. The outrage is predictable, but the hard truth is that Europe’s security dependence on the US was never sustainable. Europe should have built its own defenses years ago. Great powers shift focus; alliances evolve. Europe is right to feel worried—but wrong to be surprised.
But what caught my eye in the section is this—“many Europeans regard Russia as an existential threat.”
Adjusting America’s role in Europe is one thing. Misreading Russia is another. Trump’s NSS clings to the fantasy that Vladimir Putin is a transactional dealmaker who will behave accordingly if treated with respect. But Putin didn’t come out of business culture—he came out of the KGB. His politics are driven by grievance and revanchism, not profit. Sure, the guy has profited and seemingly enjoys it. Yet, his priority is to restore Russian power, redraw European borders, and prove the West is in decline.
The US originally anchored European security for a reason: not out of charity, but because unchecked Russian ambition is dangerous. Any strategy that forgets this isn’t realism—it’s wishful thinking.
Yes, I’m going wrap it up here…
Because otherwise this column gets too long. So I’m skipping over the fact that Middle Eastern autocracies—many of which have thrown money at Team Trump—barely appear in the NSS, and that China gets only a cursory mention. That’s because this document isn’t really about America’s national security strategy. It’s about how Trump sees the world. He may view China as a competitor, but he’s not interested in the kind of long-term, coalition-based strategy that competition requires.
And that’s the bottom line: this NSS is about Trump and his narrow view of the world, not America’s.
America’s interests do depend on a healthy dose of realism. The world is a cruel place. For the past century, the US has succeeded not through cruelty but engagement, compromise, and alliances. That has been a lot of exhausting and imperfect work. But it is one that has kept everyone moving in the same direction. While it is necessary to adapt to a rapidly evolving world, especially one being overtaken by AI, doing it on one man’s terms is dangerous.—Elmira
Is DEI Dead?
I joined Michael Green, the CEO of the Social Progress Imperative, on the Beyond GDP Podcast to talk about diversity, equity, and inclusion. SPI is dedicated to measuring things beyond GDP, which is a good name for the podcast! The conversation is about 30 minutes, but could have gone on longer.
You can watch it on YouTube, or listen to the podcast (but then you don’t get see my books…)
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
National Security Strategy
Trump’s National Security Strategy is a new vision for the United States as an illiberal superpower. A big part of that is the mandate for interference. “The strategy and recent policy decisions suggest that Trump is developing a toolkit to help his illiberal political allies around the world,” writes Rebecca Lissner. (CFR)
US actions in the Caribbean and against Venezuela are not simply a renewal of the Monroe Doctrine. They are a continuation of the post-9/11 legal architecture that enabled administration after administration to take cover for aggressive tactics, writes Michelle Ellner. (Venezuelanalysis)
Latin America is no longer an afterthought. In fact, the Western Hemisphere dominated Trump’s NSS. It says that it wants the region to remain “reasonably stable and well-governed” and “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets.” That has everyone resurrecting the Monroe Doctrine and relabeling it the “Donroe” Doctrine… Macarena Vida Liy takes a look at what that has meant and will mean. (El Pais)
The Transatlantic partnership is over, writes Ulrike Franke. (World Politics Review)
Yeah, that’s probably right.
Venezuela
On Wednesday, Trump announced that the US had seized a Venezuelan oil tanker—a tanker it alleges was sanctioned and carrying illicit oil to “foreign terrorist organizations.” Elizabeth Melimopoulous looks at the legality of that argument. (Al Jazeera)
Asia
Though Donald Trump claimed to have made peace between Thailand and Cambodia, last weekend, fighting erupted between the two. Why? Karishma Vaswani explains that it’s rooted in the region’s colonial history and artificial map making. (Bloomberg)
Australia has become the first country to ban social media for children 16 and under. It’s something that other countries are watching closely, writes Lisa Given. She outlines what other nations are considering a similar ban, and those that are taking a different approach, such as South Korea, which will only ban mobile phones in classrooms. (The Conversation)
Americas
Well, those Honduran elections have gotten complicated. Trump weighed in on behalf of the right wing candidate Nasry Afsura. Was that behind the boost in his vote or the fact that the MS-13 gang, the gang the US has declared a terrorist organization, threatened anyone who voted for the opposition leftist candidate Salvador Nasralla? In any event, the election is close and the Honduran electoral council has not declared a winner. Honduras’s president Xiomara Castro has said that Trump’s interference amounted to an “electoral coup.” Jordana Timerman has more details. (Latin America Daily Briefing)
Chileans go to the polls this weekend, to vote in the second round of presidential elections. The conservative, anti-immigrant José Antonio Kast is heavily favored to win. His main focus: deport those illegally in the country. The majority of them are from Venezuela. Sorry, no link folks!
Middle East
Where does Trump’s peace plan for Gaza stand? Well, it’s supposed to move to phase two, which involves disarming Hamas, Israel withdrawing from the Gaza territory, and the deployment of an international stabilization force. It’s not clear whether anyone is ready to make those things happen. As for the “Board of Peace” that Trump proposed. It will NOT include former British prime minister Tony Blair.
Trump’s Gaza peace plan “represents one of the most dangerous recent efforts to make international law irrelevant, installing a neo-colonial trusteeship run by those who have armed, funded and politically shielded Israel for decades,” writes Huwaida Arraf. (The Hill)
Monday, December 8 marked one year since Bashar Assad’s fall in Syria. How has the country’s transition gone? Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman take a look. (CSIS)
Europe
Following weeks of protests over more transparency, Bulgaria’s prime minister resigned on Thursday. Ketrin Jochecová has more. (Politico)
Donald Trump recently questioned whether Ukraine can be considered a democracy, since it hasn’t held elections. Ukraine’s constitution stipulates that the country cannot hold elections while under martial law, which was declared shortly after Russia invaded in February 2022. This week Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that he would green light a vote, on the condition that other countries ensure the safety of candidates and voters. Can this actually be done? Lili Rzheutska takes a look. (DW)
Opportunities
Political scientists! That means you PhDs… Good Authority is taking applications for its fellowship program through January 9.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Always insightful. Thank you!