"Reverse Kissinger"
Is Trump breaking from Europe and turning towards Russia, or is he trying to confront China?
Germany heads to the polls this weekend, in a closely watched election. Below are links that lay out who’s running and who’s likely to win. And that has many worried. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling well and is likely to come in second place. I did think about writing about the AfD leader, Alice Weidel, who is fiercely anti-immigrant and anti-American, but has a same sex partner, a Sri Lankan film producer, but landed on Trump and China. Fascinating, I know. I have a feeling that will be still be a story. In the meantime, if you like this, please click the 🖤 above and share with others. If you ❤️ the newsletter, please become a paid subscriber.
It was only one week ago that US Vice President JD Vance appeared at the Munich Security Conference and excoriated his European hosts. It signaled that the United States was growing weary of the transatlantic relationship. That came into sharp focus days later, when Trump’s secretary of state and national security advisor met with their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia to launch a peace process to end the war in Ukraine—without Ukraine.
On Wednesday, Trump blamed Ukraine for “starting” its war with Russia and then called the country's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, a “dictator,” namely for canceling elections amid a war.
But what if all of this is not merely about breaking with Europe and turning towards Russia? What if it’s actually about confronting China?
Over the past weekend, the State Department revised its fact sheet on Taiwan, deleting the line, “We do not support Taiwan independence.” China’s president, Xi Jinping, has repeatedly underscored that Taiwan is an “inherent” part of China—a position the US has supported. More recently, China’s leader has said that his country’s “reunification” with Taiwan was inevitable, prompting speculation that Beijing would seize the island nation. While the US has resisted such a takeover, Donald Trump has questioned the US coming to Taiwan’s defense, a country he notes is “9500 miles away” and one that he says “took our chip business away from us.”
But why let the Chinese take over Taiwan so easily?
Yesterday, the State Department changed “People’s Republic of China” to simply China. Both actions have angered China’s Communist Party leaders—and, no doubt, prompted questions about Trump’s approach to and intentions toward China.
When he first came into office in 2017, Trump accused China of unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and manipulating its currency to make its exports more competitive. He took a tougher line than previous US presidents, leveling tariffs on billions of Chinese goods coming into America. As he starts out his second term, Trump seems to be following this same line. And there seems to be more.
There is no question that the Trump administration’s actions this past week has been a “wrecking ball,” as Lili Pike writes, to the united front former US president Joe Biden had built with Europe. Pike writes that has created “opportunities” for China. Indeed, China has welcomed the US-Russia talks. But as this Bloomberg piece notes, it has also raised concerns that once the Ukraine-Russia war is resolved, Washington will turn its full attention East. “China could suddenly become the main focus on the US military.”
For more than a decade, China has dominated America’s strategic focus. Even under President Obama, Washington sought a “pivot” to Asia to address Beijing’s growing economic, military, and cultural influence. Yet persistent crises in the Middle East and, more recently, Russia’s war in Ukraine have repeatedly derailed this shift.
On the campaign trail, Trump promised to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, albeit “in a day.” As he moves to fulfill that promise, he appears to be seeking a diplomatic “reset” with Moscow—perhaps not to ingratiate himself with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but, taking a page out of Henry Kissinger’s book, to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. In the 1970s, Kissinger, Nixon’s foreign policy guru, exploited Soviet-Chinese tensions to normalize relations with China.
Since Russia’s second invasion into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Putin and Xi, who both oppose US global dominance, have deepened diplomatic, military, and economic ties. Xi has said that their partnership has “no limits.” Last April, Alexander Gabuev wrote in Foreign Affairs, that “Western policymakers should abandon the idea that they can drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow.” He noted that in the first Trump administration, “the National Security Council entertained the idea of a ‘reverse Kissinger’ approach of engaging Russia.” It didn’t pan out then.
Christian Caryl writes:
Russian sources have said that they are aware of Trump’s desire for an achievement he can depict as a victory over China, and they are almost certain to provide him with one. Whatever that may be, there is little reason to think that Putin will see a need to scuttle his alliance with Xi. He simply needs it too much, regardless of what the Americans will give.
As for China, Bloomberg writes:
Facing a fickle US leader in Trump, China is more likely to play the long game, according to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. After all, barring any health issues, Putin is able to stay in the Kremlin until at least 2036, probably far outlasting Trump.
Time will tell whether Trump’s attempt at Russian rapprochement is a Kissingerian play against Beijing or a poorly thought through shot-in-the dark. In the short term, it is a blow for Europe and Ukraine, who will suffer the most consequences. It is a big win for Putin, who has long sought to undermine NATO, and whose country has been terribly isolated and weakened as a result of its expansionist war with Ukraine. Quoting Caryl again, “(o)ver the past three years, Putin’s empire has struggled to subdue a foe that has less than a third of its population and merely a fraction of its natural resources.” Loser.
In the longer term we’re likely to learn that Donald Trump may fancy himself as calculating as Henry Kissinger, but is merely just as callous. — Elmira
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Ukraine-Russia
Trump is moving forward with Russia to resolve the fighting in Ukraine—without Ukraine or Europe at the table. Claudia Major and Jana Puglierin argue that Europeans may have no choice but to live with any deal Trump strikes on Ukraine, even if it goes against their own interest. Hence, it’s time for Brussels to answer hard questions about the objective in Ukraine, victory or damage control, security without NATO, and how much all of it will cost. (Interationale Politik Quarterly)
Now that Trump has taken US troops or NATO security guarantees off the table for Ukraine, the conversation has turned to if and how Europe can fill the void. Yet, writes Emma Ashford, “there are reasons to doubt whether a European guarantee to provide troops is feasible.” She suggests that policymakers consider boosting Ukraine’s own deterrent capabilities. (Foreign Affairs)
Transatlantic alliance
The Trump administration’s rhetoric and actions have placed transatlantic ties under unprecedented strain. Yet despite the tensions, Europe and the United States have an opportunity to reimagine their alliance and secure mutual benefits, says Rym Momtaz. (Carnegie Endowment)
Following JD Vance’s speech in Munich and Pete Hegseth’s comments at NATO in Brussels, European leaders held emergency meetings to respond to Trump’s turn away from both Ukraine and the transatlantic alliance. Cristina Maza reports. (National Journal)
There’s no question that Donald Trump is upending nearly a century of world order, but Ruth Deyermond questions whether he’s reviving a great power spheres of influence. From her perspective, Trump is destroying the one the US had. (CEPA)
German elections
Back in December, after Germany’s governing coalition collapsed, all eyes focused on Friedrich Merz, Angela Merkel’s successor as head of the right leaning Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Polls indicate that he will become the country’s next Chancellor. Yet, he will likely have to form a government with other parties. Gianna-Carina Grün and Jon Shelton lay out the candidates, and explain how Germany’s elections work. (DW)
Meanwhile, JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference last week, scolding Europeans on democracy and putting up a “firewall” around far-right parties and then his subsequent meeting with Alice Weidel, head of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) raised German hackles, but it is not likely to bring about any surprises on Sunday, writes Molly O’Neal. (Responsible Statecraft)
And speaking of that firewall, Linda Mannheim argues that Trump’s turn against NATO and the transatlantic alliance has moved Germany’s leading candidate, Friedrich Merz to introduce an anti-immigration resolution, which the far-right AfD supported. (The Nation)
US
America’s foreign assistance needed a review, writes Magatte Wade, but scrapping USAID has created a power vacuum in Africa that China and Russia are keen to fill. She urges the Trump administration to develop trade partnerships with African countries, fast. (The Hill)
Trump calls Mexican cartels terrorists. Could he send in the US military? Whitney Eulich takes a look. (Christian Science Monitor)
Africa
You’re not alone Europe. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio skipped out on the G20 foreign ministers meeting this week in South Africa, which holds the rotating chair of the group. Even Russia’s Sergei Lavrov showed up. Michelle Gumede and Mogomotsi Magome report. (AP)
Asia
There’s an arms race on—in Asia, write Jennifer Kavanagh and Ankit Panda. And the US needs to look beyond military tactics and map out political strategies. (Foreign Policy)
The Americas
Kinda want to start out this blurb by saying, this is what happens when you put douche-bros in charge. Last Friday, in Argentina, President Javier Milei, launched a “memecoin” $LIBRA on social media, noting that “this private project with be dedicated to encouraging the growth of Argentina’s economy.” Except, it crashed, putting losses at $250 million. Leila Macor has the details, including the legal and political fallout Milei now faces. (Buenos Aires Times)
The Middle East
In Gaza, there is great pressure for Hamas to relinquish control, which it has controlled since 2007. Sally Ibrahim says that there are indications that that might be possible. (The New Arab)
Science & Climate Change
The World Health Organization needed shaking up, writes Jess Craig. She outlines what Trump gets right and wrong about the WHO. (Vox)
Under the Radar
The UN will select a new Secretary General in 2027. As the global order unravels and traditional norms and values are challenged, who comes into that role is ever more important, writes Adela Raz. “If the next leader follows the same global trend of populism and compromises, the UN may become nothing more than a relic.” (PassBlue)
Opportunities
Georgetown’s Women’s Institute for Women, Peace, and Security is hiring for a Director of Policy and Programs.
Want to do a PhD for free? The University of Antwerp is offering a Doctoral Scholarship in International Relations and Conflict Studies.
Join the amazing Meetings Team at CFR in NY or DC. Trust me, they’re the best.
National Security Action is hiring for a Congressional Outreach Director.
Bookclub Alert! Lourdes Martin, who pens Please, Do Tell, is reading Reading Lolita in Tehran this month. Join her for a virtual discussion on February 27. I plan to be there!
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief