Sabotage
On Stefanik's nomination, Signalgate, and Rumeysa Özturk
Eid mubarek, Iyi bayramlar! ✨🌙
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Sitting down to write this column each week is both a gift and a grind. I appreciate the opportunity to chew over what’s happening in the world. For the past four years, that required care not to be repetitive, focusing on the same few headlines. For the past two months, it has required restraint from reacting to the multitudes of them. Reaction, rather than reflection, is exactly what the current Trump administration wants. Make everything feel urgent so nothing gets the required attention.
This week, this is what stands out:
Running scared
Don’t expect any fallout from Signalgate. Donald Trump made that clear—not by defending Mike Waltz, his national security advisor, after this week’s stunning national security breach, but when he pulled Elise Stefanik’s nomination to represent the US at the United Nations.
Stefanik represents NY’s 21st district, which is in upper upstate New York, near the Canadian border. Elected in 2015, (at the age of 30), she has won five times with significant percentages. But the special election her vacant seat would have triggered, amid growing public anger, seems to have spooked Trump.
Hence, while the revelation that The Atlantic’s editor was included in group chat with senior national security officials casually discussing a potential military strike — on an unsecured, if encrypted, messaging app with disappearing messages— embarrassed the US president—at least it should have—he let it slide. Trump has never cared for rules. Overlooking this level of brazen incompetence wasn’t loyalty—it was fear.
Running stupid
Fear has been Team Trumps MO on virtually everything. This week it reared its ugly head again when ICE arrested Rumeysa Özturk, a Turkish PhD student at Tufts, in broad daylight. Özturk is the second foreign student arrested, after Mahmoud Khalil. Khalil is the Columbia graduate student who holds a green card and is married to a US citizen.
Both have been accused of supporting Hamas, when the only evidence on hand is that they expressed pro-Palestinian views and engaged in activism—a protected right under the First Amendment. But in Trump’s America, rights are conditional. If he doesn’t like your cause, you’re a target. While that will enable him to unleash massive destruction, it will inevitably backfire—on all of us.
Here’s what’s stunning: Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants who fled a dictatorship, has been Trump’s hatchet person defending these arrests. At a press conference yesterday, he noted that he’s revoked about 300 visas so far, calling the students “lunatics”—a favorite Trump line, for students who engaged in vandalism and harassment.
There is no evidence Khalil and Özturk have engaged in vandalism or harassment. Their real offense was being visibly pro-Palestinian at a time when that alone can get you doxxed. This isn’t about safety or law and order. It may also not be about shutting down dissent, especially dissent that challenges the administration’s stance on Israel, but a deliberate targeting of Muslims. The War on Terror has grown up.
Sabotage
But beyond the obvious free speech implications, these arrests are self-destructive. The United States has long been the top destination for international students. That pipeline brings in billions of dollars and, more importantly, some of the world’s brightest minds. Foreign students don’t just pay tuition—they stay, they innovate, they start companies. They become doctors, engineers, researchers, and startup founders.
Don’t be surprised if Khalil and Özturk’s arrests dry up that pipeline. Maybe that’s the point. Trump has made clear he sees higher education as an enemy—elite, liberal, and defiant. Crushing it isn’t a side effect. It’s a goal.
The collateral damage doesn’t end there. Skilled immigrants—especially in tech and science—are watching. They have options. Germany and other EU countries are catching up, welcoming high-skilled workers. (Yes, there is a lot to be said about how they treat migrants and refugees). The US used to dominate in this space. Now, the gap is shrinking.
As the US gears up to compete with China on AI, semiconductors, and biotech, this crackdown will hurt American competitiveness. Meanwhile, Silicon Valley’s billionaires are bowing at Trump’s feet—trading their moral backbone for access and profit.
This isn’t just a culture war skirmish. It’s national sabotage. — Elmira
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
If Signalgate hadn’t dominated this week’s headlines, the fact that Ukraine and Russia agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea would definitely be THE news. Maia Nikoladze says that real security will come only when Russia’s shadow fleet is addressed and Kimberly Talley questions whether the ceasefire will result in peace. (Atlantic Council)
On Signalgate, Elise Labott points out the revelations, hypocrisy, and danger the incident brought to light. (Cosmopolitics)
In Turkey, protests have rocked cities across the country, following the arrest of İstanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, President Erdoğan’s main rival. Ezgi Başaran lays out the lack of accountability, gaslighting, and solidarity that Erdoğan and Trump have displayed. (Angle, Anchor, and Voice)
It is interesting that Erdoğan has not said anything about Rumeysa Özturk’s detention. 👀
US
JD Vance and his wife will visit Greenland today. And the Greenlanders aren’t happy, especially since Donald Trump has doubled down and said that the US will “go as far as we have to” to control Greenland. Nia Pratter has more. (New York Magazine)
Trump announced tariffs on foreign cars and car parts this week. It’s part of a plan to remake the global economic order. That plan has been dubbed the Mar-a-Lago Accords. Rebecca Patterson goes through it and expresses skepticism that it will work. (CFR)
Africa
Things are heating up in and around Sudan. Last Friday, the government army retook the country’s capital, Khartoum. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had been in control of the capital since the start of the civil war, launched in 2023. Estimates show that more than 150,000 people have been killed and between 12 to 14 million have been displaced. The UN calls it the largest humanitarian crisis.
Yet, it doesn’t look like the war will end anytime soon. As previously noted, tensions are flaring up in South Sudan, which broke off to become an independent country in 2011. It fought a civil war between 2013-2018. The UN warns that the recent fallout between the country’s president and vice president might descend into renewed hostilities. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Sudan’s army and the RSF are taking sides in South Sudan.
Neighboring Chad has taken a recent Sudanese threat to target its airports as a declaration of war. The Sudanese army claims that the UAE flies in weapons for RSF use, writes Barbara Plett Usher. (BBC)
Meanwhile, Burundi’s president says that Rwanda is getting ready to attack it. Rwandan militia forces, M23, invaded eastern Congo in January, report Nomsa Maseko and Natasha Booty. (BBC)
Asia
China wants to build a mega embassy in London. Not everyone is happy about it. On March 15, 6,000 protesters gathered to stop the plans, which they believe would be a ‘secret police station’ targeting dissidents, writes Oiwan Lam. (Global Voices)
The Americas
In Brazil, former President Jair Bolsonaro will stand trial for attempting to stage a coup. Rebecca Falconer reports. (Axios)
Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has been applauded for how she’s handled Donald Trump. But, as Mariana Hernández Ampudia notes, there are growing security and economic crises in the country that she needs to tackle. (PassBlue)
The Middle East
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to eke through a budget—which avoids new elections. He’s fired the head of the country’s domestic spy agency and made threats to axe the attorney general. With Israeli hostages still in Hamas captivity, Israelis are growing angrier. Deborah Danan on the massive protests against Bibi. (Times of Israel)
Syrians are thrilled that Assad is no longer in charge. But that isn’t enough to compel them to return. Charlotte Al-Khalili and Melissa Gatter explain why. (The Conversation)
MENA received more US foreign assistance than any other, writes Amy Hawthorne. While that didn’t translate into security or democracy, it did save lives and had value. She looks at the impact of the cuts. (Arab Center)
Europe
For the past three years, Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, has been struggling in his quest to defeat and overtake Ukraine. Donald Trump’s election changed that calculus. Alexandra Prokopenko, Tatiana Stanovaya, and Alexander Gabuev on whether Putin can fulfill his ultimate goals in Ukraine. (Foreign Affairs)
No longer able to depend on the US, Europe must decide how to secure the continent, but to protect Ukraine. Can the EU help? It doesn’t look like it, write Sophia Besch and Erik Brown. (Carnegie Europe)
Technology
As if the concerns about AI aren’t enough, Annie Newport and Nina Jankowicz point out that Russian chatbots are flooding the Internet with disinformation and corrupting chatbots. (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists)
Under the Radar
It’s been five years since Covid-19 stunned and shut down the world. What did we learn? Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Helen Clark say many things, but with Trump’s withdrawal from the WHO, there’s no way to effectively implement lessons learned, much less prepare for the next pandemic. (Foreign Policy)
Opportunities
The McCain Institute is hiring for a Program Coordinator-Global Democracy.
Shannon O’Neil is hiring for an Executive Assistant at CFR.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief