Shrinking

September 29, 2023 - The US government shutdown

Sep 29, 2023

A decade ago, I spent my time with entrepreneurs around the world. (I wrote a book about it!) Men and women in places such as Nigeria, India, Pakistan, Turkey, China, Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa who were starting and scaling up companies in the same way that men and women in Silicon Valley were. It was the rising tide of startups and the motto was “Go big or go home.”

Big equaled success — and might. And that went big, beyond business into politics.

In politics, big was obviously not about profit and return. It went beyond winning to sacrificing governance and representation in order to impose one’s will.

The key here is one, for big in politics is, ironically, about the singular “I” over the larger “we.”

At midnight tomorrow, the US government will incur a lapse in appropriations and shutdown. It’s not that the government has run out of money. It’s that the government can only operate through the passage of a budget that appropriates funds in order to operate. It is a uniquely American phenomenon; no other country in the world has a government shutdown.

This will be the 22nd government shutdown, 14th since 1980. 😳🤬

Bringing the US government to a standstill is obviously a blow to US standing in the world, weakening not only our image but literally making us less effective and more vulnerable on the world stage. In the cyber age, that is especially worrisome. Russia, North Korea, and China have been hacking us for decades. A government shutdown gives them more opportunity.

It also sets the example that narrow interests trump the collective good.

Turkey, El Salvador, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, and others have been heeding that message. It’s the impact that message is having elsewhere in the world order that is worrying.

Last week, a number of world leaders skipped out on the annual UN General Assembly confab. With an ICC indictment out on him and much of the world against him, Russia’s Vladimir Putin was definitely not going to show up. Having snubbed the G20 Summit in New Delhi the week before - along with previous UNGAs, Xi Jinping’s absence was not surprising. What was were the no-shows from India and, more importantly, the UN Security Council’s two permanent veto-wielding members, the United Kingdom and France. Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron stayed home.

Arguably, both had good reason to avoid New York’s East Side. Sunak, having failed on climate change, wanted to avoid “Climate Week.” As we outline below, Monsieur Macron has his hands full with former West African colonies in the Sahel overtaken by generals. Yet, in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine, a more assertive China, rising global temperatures, and increasing extremism and poverty, Western unity and multilateralism have become ever more critical. Abandoning the ultimate “we” — the United Nations — is a serious setback.

Most of the headlines about the government shutdown have focused on how it will hurt growth and the stock market. Still obsessed with “go big” at a moment when we’re getting incredibly small. — Elmira

Only in New York…

Walking on Broadway yesterday, I ran into Jacinda Ardern. The kind, thoughtful person you see in the media - she’s the same in person. A truly lovely person.

Elsewhere in the World.....

On our radar...

The US government is about to shut down. April Rubin outlines what you need to know. (Axios)

This is not headline news, but it should be: Women aren’t compensated for “care” work. In Bogotá, Colombia, the local government (which is led by a woman) is experimenting with a city funded laundromat, free courses to help women earn high school diplomas and practice yoga, while city employees provide childcare and provide psychological counseling and legal aid — all in the name of progress. Bina Venkataraman has all the details. (Washington Post)

Nagorno-Karabakh

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared up again as Azerbaijan launched a military campaign into the disputed territory, Nagorno-Karabakh. It’s a dispute that dates back to 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh is majority Armenian. This week, following an Azeri “anti-terror” campaign into the territory, hundreds of thousands of Armenians have left, seeking refuge in Armenia.

Watch: Gasia Ohanes brings us a first hand report on the Armenian exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh. (DW)

Could the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict cause further problems? Ellen Ioanes thinks there’s more instability to come. (Vox)

US

Why has it taken the US military so long to suspend the Osprey, aka widow maker? The aircraft has been linked to numerous deaths so maybe it’s time to review the program, writes Julia Gledhill. (Responsible Statecraft)

Here’s something we learned this week: The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act is US law. Passed in 2019, it requires the US to make atrocity prevention a national security priority. So let’s step it up, says Megan Corrado, and has some suggestions. (Just Security)

Did you know that the US is the only country globally that has not ratified the Convention on the Rights of the Child? Callie King-Guffey and Jo Becker explain how the US is failing children. (Human Rights Watch)

Africa

With a surge in military coups in Africa, Radwa Saad discusses the powers in play behind them and their possible consequences for the future. (Middle East Eye)

Last Sunday, France announced that it would withdraw its soldiers from Niger. Laura Kayali and Clea Caulcutt on how this marks an “end of an era for France” in Africa. (Politico)

The US has been fighting extremists in Somalia for 16 years. With a meeting to discuss the future of the country taking place in Ankara next month, Sarah Harrison says it’s time for Washington to think about peace. (Foreign Affairs)

Asia

US President Joe Biden hosted 20 leaders from Pacific Island nations this week. He announced new diplomatic relations with two countries, the Cook Islands and Niue. While that might not sound like a big deal, it is all about China, write Kyla Guilfoil and Molly Roecker. (NBC)

What happened at last week’s first Central Asia-US summit? A lot of the usual diplomatic talk. It did get juicy when the focus shifted to minerals, which Central Asia is rich in. Colleen Wood breaks it all down. (The Diplomat)

Listen: A read out of Biden’s recent trip to Asia, to attend the ASEAN summit and his visit to Vietnam. Rachel Lambert, who Elmira has known literally since the day she was born, joins the folks at CSIS to take stock. (Southeast Asia Radio) #ProudAuntie

China has a youth unemployment problem. Nancy Qian explains. (Project Syndicate)

The Americas

Brazil’s president met with Joe Biden on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last week. That’s a big deal, says Bruna Santos, especially as Lula works to carve out an independent foreign policy for his country. (Wilson Center)

Last week, we touched on the crisis between India and Canada. Manjari Chatterjee Miller breaks down Canadian PM Justin Trudeau’s allegation that the Indian government assassinated a Sikh independence activist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, on Canadian soil. (CFR)

Latin America and the Caribbean are not meeting economic growth forecasts – but why? Vangie Bhagoo-Ramrattan, Pedro Francke, Joydeep Mukherji, and Scott MacDonald discuss. (The Dialogue)

Is Haiti actually free? As Jemima Pierre puts it, “Haiti has been and continues to be the main laboratory for US imperial machinations in the region and throughout the world.” (NACLA)

Europe

Slovakia goes to the polls Saturday. The populist party, Smer (Direction), is in the lead — and that has many in the West concerned. It wants to end military support for Ukraine and lift sanctions on Russia. Emma Nix, Jacob Paquette, Katherine Schauer, and Leonie Müller on the election's significance and the country’s future relationship with the EU. (Atlantic Council)

Scratch my back…. When we last left the topic of Sweden’s application to NATO in July, Turkey’s president reversed his opposition to the Nordic country’s bid. Today, the matter sits before Turkey’s parliament, where the president says it will be ratified, IF Washington keeps its promise to sell Ankara F-16 jet fighters. Ezgi Akin has more. (Al Monitor)

Has Russia's invasion in Ukraine made Germany rethink its foreign policy and defense? Stefanie Babst doesn't think they have done nearly enough. (Carnegie Europe)

The stakes are high in upcoming elections in Slovakia and Poland. Democratic backsliding and anti-Ukraine sentiments are on the ballot, according to Soňa Muzikárová. (Al Jazeera)

Middle East

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was crowing about his country’s impending “normalization” with Saudi Arabia. Bethan McKernan notes that the Palestinians aren’t so sure that will happen so easily. (The Guardian)

While the words "home and garden" invite imagery of magazines and houses with backyards for many, Gwyn Daniel discusses how this is not the reality for the population of the Jenin refugee camp who are facing violence and destruction. (Middle East Eye)

With the wave of authoritarianism spreading across the globe, Roya Hakakian demands that Western nations band together to end dialogue with those who do not uphold rule of law. (The Atlantic)

Science and Climate Change

It’s becoming increasingly likely that we will reach an average temperature rise of 1.5℃ above pre-industrial measures (not surprising after the temperatures this summer). That’s the “preferred maximum warming limit” that the 2015 Paris Climate agreement set out. Scientists think we’re on track to surpass that, writes Hannah Ellis-Petersen. (Nature)

Much of the Covid panic is calming down, but doctors and scientists still can’t agree on the long term effects of having Covid. No matter what, Josephine Ma reminds us, we should not completely forgive and forget the pandemic – it’s still important to stay vigilant and safe. (South China Morning Post)

Technology

In the last five years, the US Department of Defense has spent billions on developing artificial intelligence technologies, potentially modernizing drone warfare, writes Sue Halpern. (New Yorker)

Podcast alert! The Bloom’s editor Jasmine Anouna has launched a podcast called Their Secret Sauce. Conversations with female leaders in social impact.
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And speaking of Fall, there’s a good chance I linked to this soup last year, but it’s about time to make the most delicious butternut squash soup
This is an old link, but we rediscovered it on The Browser, Why Women Should Stop Trying to be Perfect. Amen.
UNESCO has added 42 new World Heritage Sites

Job Opportunities

The American University of Cairo is taking applications for its Kamal Adham Fellowship for Television and Digital Journalism (in Cairo).

In New York, Editor-in-Chief at Jezebel

Brookings is taking applications for a Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development

Google is hiring for a Head of Government Relations, Latin America

Editorial Team

Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief

Editors:

Samantha Felman
Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Maya Scott
Emily Smith