Monday is Memorial Day in the US. We honor the men and women who serve and have served. Thank you for your service.
We’re off next week, so no newsletter until June 9.
Happy birthday Neece!
Time is running out on the US debt ceiling deadline. If President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, don’t reach an agreement, the largest economy in the world will default on June 1. Below are a number of links that explain what is expected to happen if it comes to that. The repercussions are stark:
Social security recipients and veterans (who have served to protect the US) might not receive checks.
The US government would shut down.
Credit agencies could downgrade the US ranking, forcing a rise in interest rates and making borrowing more expensive in the future. (Sorry if you were thinking of buying a house/condo).
The dollar would take a hit and with half of the world’s foreign currency reserves in dollars, would negatively impact heavily indebted countries. Essentially, a weak dollar will make it more expensive to pay back debts…..That would roil financial markets worldwide. 😳
Since what happens in Washington doesn’t stay in Washington, many countries are rethinking their dependence on the mighty dollar. Cue talk about de-dollarization — moving away from the dollar. (Yes, I am tempted to give an econ lesson here). In short, since the end of WWII the US dollar has been the “reserve” currency; the currency in which international trade takes place.
China has been turning up the volume on making its currency, the renminbi, a reserve currency. Meanwhile, Brazil, Russia, and India have started discussions about creating an alternative reserve currency. Naomi Rovnick and Libby George look at the possibility of de-dollarization in this Reuters piece.
While de-dollarization won’t happen tomorrow, especially amid a global economic crisis, it is on the proverbial horizon. American polarization is further eroding US superpower status. We can debate whether that is good or bad. What we can’t do is predict what comes after. In a world with increasing inequality and rising authoritarianism, that scares me.
On the second round of the Turkish election….
Two weeks ago, I, along with many, had high hopes that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 20-year reign in Turkey would come to an end. Based on the results from May 14, it looks as though he will secure yet another victory, allowing him to rule for another five years. This is tragic on many levels.
Over two decades, Erdoğan has further weakened Turkish governance and, thereby, democracy. He has bent institutions to his will, stocking the judiciary and ministries with loyalists and stifling a free press. In 2017, he succeeded in changing Turkey’s governing system from a parliamentary to a presidential one, in which he has unprecedented powers. This is problematic in and of itself. It is only likely to become worse once Erdoğan is no longer on the political scene.
As Turkey turns 100 in October, it is a country that has struggled to fulfill its potential for the past century. With a continued Erdoğan presidency, Turkey falls further away from that goal. What does the country look like after him? That scares me too.
— Elmira
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Debt ceiling
What will happen if the US hits the debt ceiling? Shannon Pettypiece lays it out. (NBC)
What will a US debt default mean for the world economy? Not good, says Alexandra Sharp. (Foreign Policy)
Jen Kirby says that if the US defaults on its debt, it will erode its influence worldwide. (Vox)
G7
Listen: Catherine Putz and Ankit Panda give us the run down of the G-7 summit. (The Diplomat)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise visit to the G-7 Summit held in Hiroshima, Japan. He used the opportunity to ask for more weapons, while likening Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the destruction Hiroshima faced. 👀 (Not sure about that comparison.) Natsumi Kawasaki with more. (Nikkei Asia)
Turkish elections - Round Two
A catastrophic earthquake could have ended Erdoğan’s rule. Now, he’s poised to win on Sunday, says Tamara Qiblawi. (CNN)
Ahead of the runoff election for Turkey’s next president, opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has adopted nationalistic, anti-refugee rhetoric, while Erdoğan supporters are relying on fake news to get votes, writes Elmas Topçu. (DW)
Africa
Sudan’s humanitarian crisis continues to worsen as fighting escalates. Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy dive deep. (CFR)
A planned 7-day ceasefire in Sudan has failed. Nosmot Gbadamosi on the latest between the two generals and the dire humanitarian crisis in Sudan. (Foreign Policy)
She also has the latest on the Ghana-IMF deal and the Congolese president’s visit to China.
Asia
Pakistan is in chaos following the arrest of former PM Imran Khan on May 12. Violent protests have rocked the country. In order to restore order the government shutdown the Internet. That’s not helpful, says Javeria Khalid. (Coda Story)
What will the future of Pakistan look like? Asha Amirali says no matter who is in charge, something needs to change. Pakistanis need a leader who won’t betray them. (Al Jazeera)
The opposition delivered a rebuke to Thailand’s ruling military government in the May 14 election. Still, it might be hard for it to form a government, writes Tamara Loos. The monarchy and military still hold too much power. (Foreign Affairs)
Youth unemployment in China has reached crisis status. The Communist Party’s “get over it” response has only made it worse, says Lijia Zhang. (South China Morning Post)
China’s youth unemployment weakens the country’s near- and long-term economic prospects, writes Nancy Qian, making it even harder to support its rapidly aging population. (Project Syndicate)
When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi lands in Australia, Anthony Albanese would be wise to raise human rights concerns in the country, says Elaine Pearson. As the largest democracy, he needs to embrace democratic values. (HRW)
The Americas
Crisis in Ecuador: Last week, the country’s president, Guillermo Lasso (no relation to Ted 😉), dissolved parliament, before parliament could vote on whether to impeach him on corruption charges. What happens now? Eileen Gavin, Grace Jaramillo , Marc Becker, Diego Andrés Almeida, and Alberto Acosta Burneo weigh in. (The Dialogue)
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro started the year with a promise for total peace in the country, through a ceasefire against a number of guerilla groups. Five months later, tensions have resumed, writes Camila Osorio. (El País)
Chile’s far-right Republican Party won a majority on the new Constitutional Council. Carole Concha Bell weighs in on how this new council will destroy the Boric government’s transformative plans for the future of the country. (NACLA)
Despite the instability in Chile since 2019, the country is still seen as a role model for Argentina. Luciana Vázquez clues us in on the ways Argentine politicians look to their neighbor on the other side of the Andes as an example to follow. (Americas Quarterly)
Europe
Jaws dropped in Greece after Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s right-wing New Democracy party got 40% of the vote, a lead which no polling agency predicted. Marina Prentoulis thinks it's time for the opposition to get it together. (The Guardian)
Russia’s war on Ukraine has shed light on the importance of Arctic governance. Joanna Hosa on the role the Arctic Council plays and will continue to play during the war. (ECFR)
Is all in fact fair in war? The Ukrainian Cyber Resistance hacked into the email accounts of the wives of Russian officers. Rhiannon Neilsen considered the ethics and the future of technology in war. (Just Security)
Li Hui, China’s special representative on Eurasian affairs, held talks in Ukraine on China’s bid to negotiate a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. With Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy being set on a return of all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea though, hopes are not high for anyone involved. Shannon Tiezzi has more. (The Diplomat)
Middle East
With Syria's return to the Arab League, the noise of Assad's 'victory' resounded loudly across the world, but a closer look reveals the regime's fragility as it continues to face insurmountable challenges that do not have a quick fix, writes Lara Nelson. (The New Arab)
Will Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations soon? Nicole Jansezian explores. (The Jerusalem Post)
Iran has been digging tunnels underground — experts suspect the tunnels are being used for nuclear weapon facilities. The tunnels’ depth would allow them to be protected from a US weapon designed to destroy underground sites, says Sarah Tartak. (National Review)
Morocco has been using its diplomatic clout and connections with powerful nations, like the US, to lay claim on the partially recognized state of Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. Caroline Hecht points out that the US is (yet again) being hypocritical in its support of self determination and international law. (Africa is a Country)
Science and Climate Change
See, it does work. The Montreal Protocol, signed in 1987, set out to save Earth’s ozone layer. Scientists say that the treaty not only protected the ozone layer, but had delayed Arctic ice from melting by 15 years! 🙌 Chelsea Harvey with more. (Scientific American)
The annual global average temperature could reach 1.5℃ within the next 5 years. Though this isn’t exactly the specific measure that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change meant when it set up the famous 1.5℃ figure, there is still cause for concern. Nicola Jones is here to explain. (Nature)
Technology
The European Parliament voted in favor of the EU Artificial Intelligence Act earlier this month. April Liu on the ways US AI companies have to prepare for the implications of this law. (The Hill)
Meta was hit with a record-breaking $1.3 billion fine from the EU for violating data privacy laws. Hanna Ziady explains. (CNN)
ChatGPT and other generative AI have some serious implications when it comes to science denial and spreading misinformation. Gale Sinatra and Barbara Hofer tell us what to look out for and how to improve our digital literacy. (The Conversation)
Links We Loved....
10 questions the Succession finale needs to answer.
Looking for what book to read next? Check out this list from NYT Book Staff
Queer people have been WAITING for a trashy dating show perfectly suited to us, and we finally got one. Read more about “The Ultimatum: Queer Love” here and catch it on Netflix!
Rayyanah Barnawi, the first female Arab astronaut to go to space has arrived at the International Space Station 🙌
Tending to your garden this holiday weekend? When you’re done check out this yoga for gardeners video!
Are you a Jazz lover? The 18th Jazz Age Lawn Party has arrived in NYC!
Job Opportunities
The US-China Commission is hiring a Policy Analyst or Senior Policy Analyst for the Security and Foreign Affairs Team.
Remote, Oxfam is looking for a Gender and Climate Justice Knowledge Coordinator.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Samantha Felman
Anouk Jouffret
Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith