The Man Behind the Curtain
June 30, 2023 - Prigozhin pulled back the curtain on Putin's empty leadership
Eid Mubarak, İyi Bayramlar 🧿
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Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin may not have deposed Russian leader Vladimir Putin last weekend, but he certainly pulled back the curtain on the strongman’s empty leadership.
In power for the past 23 years, Putin has peddled a narrative about a “great” Russia, that should be respected and play a significant role on the world stage. That has resonated with a large number of Russians. Such brute nationalism always does.
Yet, what Russians and the world saw was not a great Russia, but a deeply desperate one — with a weak leader and a hallowed state.
For the past two decades Putin has prioritized himself over reform, progress, and governance. He has made Russia appear invincible with energy as his armor, supplying oil and gas for revenue. And he has made himself appear mighty, not through careful selection but handouts.
As a result, he drew in the likes of Prigozhin, a one-time convict turned hot dog cook turned internet troll turned mercenary chief. (You seriously can’t make this stuff up.) On cue, Prigozhin did Putin’s dirty work. He headed the Internet Research Agency, a disinformation troll farm that played a big role in the 2016 US election and continues to peddle propaganda in Ukraine and elsewhere. He then recruited criminals and thugs to fight in Africa, Syria, Libya — establishing Russian presence abroad. That formed the Wagner Group, which played a pivotal role in the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Prigozhin as a mafia soldier to Putin’s Wizard of Oz.
Hierarchy is everything in the criminal underworld. Yet, the goal isn’t to uphold the hierarchy, but to master it. That is what propelled Prigozhin, angry at Putin’s decision to put Wagner under the Russian defense ministry’s control, to rally his militia forces against the Russian leader.
It is surprising that Putin did not anticipate Prigozhin’s resistance. Any thug knows that loyalty is fleeting in a world where power comes at the barrel of a gun. Then again, Putin invaded Ukraine with the belief that it would be over in days.
What comes next? Putin may have survived a challenge to his authority, but it is clear that it is slipping away. Empty feeds empty. Unfortunately, as we’ve seen in Turkey following the 2016 coup attempt, that will mean that his iron grip will further tighten. Expect more repression and outrageous propaganda. Faced with ongoing war in Ukraine, increased international isolation, and a struggling economy, it is also likely Putin will become more unpredictable. For someone who has his finger on the nuclear button, that is terrifying.
This is where the West needs to come together and prepare. The US and Europe have formed a formidable block against Putin’s aggression and continued miscalculation. It is vital that they stand strong and on guard. We’ll be watching what happens on July 11 in Vilnius where the NATO Summit will take place, as will the Russian wizard himself.
— Elmira
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What’s happening in Russia?
The mercenary Russian military force, the Wagner Group, staged an uprising last weekend, in what many are saying is an attempted coup. Was it? Viola Gienger dives into the details. (Slate)
The Wagner Group is not a formal part of the Russian military. Still, following Saturday’s rebellion, the Kremlin has ordered that the mercenary group hand over its military equipment to Russian authorities, writes Ellie Cook. (Newsweek)
Who is the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin? Sophie Tanno takes a look. (CNN)
What's next for Wagner operations in Africa after the failed mutiny? Emma Ogao shares how it might affect the group in Mali, the Central African Republic, and other African countries in which they operate. (ABC News)
The Wagner Group’s uprising revealed more about Putin and his status than anything — he’s moving closer and closer to dictatorship and the uprising might have revealed a bit of a weakness in his abilities. Either way, Ukraine is going to need more help, says Samantha de Bendern. (The Guardian)
Prigozhin’s rebellion ended quickly and Putin still stands, but for how long? Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage discuss. (Foreign Affairs)
The Hajj
Muslim celebrated the end of the Hajj pilgrimage this week. What exactly is it? Aya Batrawy breaks it down. (NPR)
As Muslims perform the Hajj, extreme heat has become a challenge. Armani Syed has more. (Time)
US
Was President Biden’s decision to skip the lectures on democracy during his meeting with Indian PM Narendra Modi a “hypocritical pivot” or pure pragmatism? Susan Glasser discusses the implications of what was omitted during their conversation. (New Yorker)
UN special rapporteur Fionnuala Ní Aoláin released her report on Guantanamo Bay, saying that the US must apologize for its treatment of detainees at the detention center. Rebecca Falconer on the details of the report and the US response. (Axios)
Sarah McBride, the first openly transgender state senator, wants to write history again; this time as the first openly trans person in Congress. Brooke Migdon fills us in. (The Hill)
Africa
The war and resulting humanitarian disaster in Sudan could be a case of history repeating itself. Tirana Hassan explains how. (Just Security)
Earlier this month, in Senegal, a court ruled on a significant rape case. It involved Ousmane Sonko, a 2024 presidential candidate - and how the rape charges were downgraded to corrupting youth. The Senegalese Feminist Network outlines why the verdict is a blow to women’s rights. (We learned a lot reading this). (Africa is a Country)
The DRC has asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate the upsurge of violence and abuses in North Kivu. It’s a reminder of the importance of the court and how its work is not done, writes Maria Elena Vignoli. (HRW)
The West needs to take “African solutions to African problems” more seriously and treat the continent as an equal partner when it comes to peacekeeping. Priscilla Plat and Komlan Avoulete show us how. (International Policy Digest)
Asia
Right after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken returned from a successful trip to China, Joe Biden made a comment about Xi Jinping being a dictator. (Sorry Tony, you can’t have it all….) How can China believe that the US wants better relations when its actions don’t match its words? Asks and answers Wei Wei. (South China Morning Post)
What was it like for a journalist to write about Covid-19 in Wuhan during the height of the pandemic? Angeli Datt interviewed the writer Hao Qun, who recently published his book recording the life of Wuhan people in 2020, ultimately leading to his exile from China. (China File)
Japan sent a man to lead a G7 meeting on women’s empowerment… 🤦🏻♀️ Alice French on what was discussed at the meeting, including expanding and supporting women’s representation in executive and managerial positions. (Nikkei Asia)
What legacy will Indonesian President Joko Widodo leave behind when he’s no longer in office? Erin Cook says: a disappointing one. (WPR)
In India, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could face its biggest challenge in the upcoming 2024 elections. Seventeen parties have banded together to take on and, hopefully, take down Modi, writes Kavita Chowdhury. (The Diplomat)
The Americas
Toronto has a new mayor, Olivia Chow. Who is the city’s first non-white mayor? Gabby Rodrigues dives in. (Global News)
A center-left, anti-corruption candidate claimed a spot in Guatemala’s presidential run off election. Bernardo Arévalo will face Sandra Torres on August 20. That’s good news, since everyone feared democratic backsliding. Marina Franco has more. (Axios)
50 years after a coup that led to a dictatorship in Uruguay, human rights movements and family members of the disappeared continue to demand justice. Debbie Sharnak and Gabriela Fried Amilivia with more on the struggle for accountability. (NACLA)
Europe
After a series of interim governments, Bulgaria finally has one! What does it mean for Europe? Vessela Tcherneva says the country’s new administration provides hope for the region. (ECFR)
Meanwhile in Greece, the right won big in last weekend’s elections. Kyriakos Mitsotakis will remain as prime minister, while the leader of the leftist opposition party, Syriza has stepped down. Liz Zhao has more. (Vox)
Three weeks ago, the former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi passed away. Barbara Serra analyzes the legacy of the iconic political figure and the significance of his enduring popularity. (New Lines Magazine)
Europe should help exiled Russians continuing their work or education, as this is the generation that will modernize a future Russia, says Judy Dempsey. (Carnegie Europe)
Now is the time to invite Ukraine to join NATO. Evelyn Farkas and Randy Scheunemann make the case. (The Hill)
Middle East
Israel PM Netanyahu is China bound. Since he didn’t get an invite to the White House, the embattled Israeli leader is looking elsewhere, explains Rina Bassist. (Al-Monitor)
Amid a decade-long civil war, Syrians have depended on international aid. Yet, the Assad government has used it as a political pawn. The UN Security Council will have to consider, once again, Syria’s cross-border aid delivery in July. Emma Beals thinks it’s time to do more. (Middle East Institute)
Lets not forget the women fighting for their rights in Iran. Tara Sepehri Far analyzes the movement that started nine months ago with the death of Mahsa (Jina) Amini and roots it in history. (HRW)
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, won last month’s election on an anti-Western platform. But he can’t quit European soccer. Our very own former editorial team member Frances Nguyen on Turkey’s love for football. (Foreign Policy)
Science and Climate Change
It’s HOT outside (unless you’re in the northeast US – it’s rainy here). But worldwide, it’s dangerously hot and the tactics we use to relieve ourselves from the heat just might make things worse, creating a deadly cycle. Natalie Muller and Neil King explain. (DW)
Technology
As palm oil plantations expand in Borneo, indigenous communities are using mapping technology to claim their land rights. Liani MK explains. (Rest of World)
As protests have entered the age of social media, Nehal El-Hadi and Daniel Merino walk us through the use of feminine images to fight authoritarian regimes – as seen in Iran and Belarus. (The Conversation)
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And 33 eating adventures in NYC.
Job Opportunities
In NYC, the Turkish Philanthropy Funds is hiring for a Donor Relations Assistant. Also, if you’re looking for a summer internship, give me a shout and I’ll loop in you in with the fantastic team that helms the leading philanthropic organization for Turkish Americans.
Remote, the Open Foreign Policy Initiative is hiring for an African Associate.
In DC, The German Marshall Fund has a number of open positions, including Press Officer, and Deputy Managing Director, Strategic Convening.
In NYC, New Politics is hiring for a Deputy Communications Director.
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