They Not Like Us
The US-Iran ceasefire, Hungary's election, protests in Cuba, and a look at Trump's genocidal threats—32 years after the Rwandan genocide.
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Postscript - My thought of the week
This Week in the World.....
On my radar...
Shelly Kittleson has been freed, thankfully. And the US Air Force pilot was rescued, as Pete Hegseth reminded us on Easter Sunday. I have lots to say about Hegseth’s anti-Muslim and faux-Crusades obsession. So many things to write, so little time to write them.
War Crimes?
Trump’s threats to attack Iran’s power plants and bridges may not necessarily be off limits. Rachel Van Langdingham points out that while that language does sow terror among a population, which is a war crime, an individual case can be made that any given power plant or bridge has a military use. (PBS News Hour)
And while we’re talking about what’s legal or not, Ludovica Castelli and Ali Alkis point out that Donald Trump’s threat that “a whole civilization will die” in Iran is not just extreme rhetoric but reflects a deeper, long-standing ambiguity in how the US has often blurred the line between military and civilian targets, creating legal gray zones that such statements exploit. (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists)
The Ceasefire
Just before his self-imposed deadline to “wipe out” Iran, Trump called Iran’s proposed 10-point plan “a workable basis” to negotiate and agreed to a two-week ceasefire. That’s pretty shocking because those points all run contrary to the US position. They include:
The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.
US military withdrawal from the Middle East.
An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.
The release of frozen Iranian assets.
A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.
So, things have been slowly unraveling. There’s been back and forth about whether Lebanon, which is under heavy Israeli assault, is included. Israel and the US say it’s not. Iran and Pakistan say it is. JD Vance said it was a “reasonable misunderstanding.” Errr…that seems unreasonable in high stakes negotiations, JD. It’s one reason Iran has not re-opened the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has offered to sit down with Lebanon, which does not recognize the Jewish state. Axios reports that Washington is twisting Bibi’s arm there. That, hopefully, should scale back Israeli bombardment. Team Trump does seem to want to make this weekend’s talks in Islamabad work. That said, don’t be surprised if things fall apart fast.
Suzanne Maloney helps put the ceasefire into perspective. (Foreign Affairs)
Given the enormous strategic costs that both the US and Iran have incurred, there is mutual benefit in a ceasefire. Yet, Sanam Vakil explains that it is the political objectives that will make it difficult to “turn this pause into a lasting agreement.” Neither side trusts the other. “The ceasefire should be understood not as the end of the crisis but as the start of a new and uncertain phase.” (Guardian)
One of the elements of uncertainty is over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said it would charge $1 dollar a barrel of oil carried out of the strait. With tankers carrying upwards 2 million barrels, Myra Saefong and Isabel Wang note that with about 20-21 ships passing daily the Islamic regime could be raking in about $21.5 million a day—and $7.74 billion a year. (Marketwatch) 🤑
You bet Trump wants to get in on that action. He told ABC that “we’re (the US) thinking of doing it as a joint venture (with the Iranians).” You can’t make this stuff up.
But making stuff up is Trump’s specialty. And it’s what has left him with a losing hand. Hoppin’ on the Netanyahu chaos train, he launched an attack on Iran without a clear objective, where Iran discovered that it has a powerful lever to beat back the Americans—geography. Nancy Youssef on Trump’s misadventure. (The Atlantic) 🎁🔗
Perhaps all this ceasefire talk inspired Russian President Vladimir Putin to announce a 32-hour ceasefire on his war on Ukraine, as both countries observe Orthodox Easter this weekend. (CNN)
Iran’s PR Game
If you’ve seen the video Iran War: Straight Outta Hormuz, you’ve watched something the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps created. Narges Bajoghli on how Iran’s Gen Z has reframed the country vis-a-vis the West, moving it away from a religious “we are the victims” narrative to one that she says speaks today’s language: “the one that was forged in the ruins of Iraq, in the genocide of Gaza, in every moment that western institutions promised accountability and delivered impunity instead.” (New York Magazine)
NATO
Trump may not be able to pull the US out of NATO, but he is eager to punish it. Annie Linskey and Robbie Cramer report that he’s looking to move US troops out of certain European countries. The US has about 84,000 troops in Europe. As Linskey and Cramer note, these troops “provide an economic boon to the host country through investment” as well as “serve as a deterrent against Russia.” (WSJ) 🎁🔗
The Trump-NATO dust up deserves an extensive commentary, namely the question of what happens if there is an attack on a current member. If, say, Russia were to attack Estonia, Poland, or Finland, which it has in the past, what does Washington do? Let’s hope that this isn’t put to the test.
Hungary’s Election 🇭🇺
Hungary holds elections Sunday. And it is a big deal. I will send my perspective on that on Sunday.
Polls show that after 16 years Viktor Orbán is in trouble. His rival, Péter Magyar, has surged in popularity. Yet, even if Magyar ekes out a win, that doesn’t necessarily result in Orbán’s loss. Zsuzsanna Végh says even if defeated Orbán’s party entrenched influence across institutions may endure, constraining any successor government. (Just Security)
It’s no secret that Viktor Orbán is pro-Russia. Alex Finley lays out just how so. He’s not only done Putin’s bidding in Europe—not just on blocking assistance to Ukraine—but to get Putin-aligned oligarchs off of sanctions list. And right out of the Kremlin pages, Orbán has weaponized state institutions to target his rival, using a dubious investigation to seize campaign data. (Rant!)
Cuba 🇨🇺
Hundreds of Cuban women took to the streets to protest the US energy embargo on the island this week. But it wasn’t a popular uprising. Deputy Prime Minister Inés María Chapman and Deputy Foreign Minister Josefina Vidal led the march. (Latin American Post)
Africa
Amid the insanity coming out of the White House, it’s easy to forget that there is a brutal war taking place in Sudan. Next Wednesday, April 15 marks the third anniversary of the war. Susan Page, a former US envoy to Sudan, on the failure to bring the two sides to a negotiating table. (Zeteo)
The war in Sudan has displaced 12 million people, has left 21 million in need of urgent care, and 150,000 dead.
On that, Rachel George, documents how the US-Israeli war on Iran has made things for Sudan worse. The country imports more than 50 percent of its fertilizer from the Persian Gulf, while much needed pharmaceutical medicines and supplies are stuck in Dubai. With massive cuts to aid over the past year, the Sudanese are suffering. (Just Security)
Djibouti, an east African state that hosts key US bases, holds elections on Friday, April 10. Incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh is running for his sixth term and is expected to win. (Al Jazeera)
Asia
Well, this gives new meaning to “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Taiwan’s opposition leader, Cheng Li-win, visited Beijing this week on what she’s calling a “peace mission.” Jade Guan argues that this is China’s long-term strategy of influencing Taiwan’s politics through opposition figures, raising the question of whether engaging with the mainland can reduce tensions or risks weakening deterrence. (The Diplomat)
Over in Vietnam, Community Party leader To Lam has become president. That’s a big deal because the country has avoided having the party leader hold office. Maybe they’ve seen how well that’s worked out for China? Sana Khan has more. (Modern Diplomacy)
The Americas
Peru 🇵🇪 is also having elections this weekend, though that seems to happen a lot there. In the last year it has had three alone. Looks like the electorate is moving to the right, which is the trend in Latin America. Keiko Fujimori, daughter of disgraced former president Alberto Fujimori commands 14 percent of the electorate. Given that this is her fourth try for the top job and that she acted as “first lady” during her father’s presidency, she’s got name recognition. She’ll compete with 34 other candidates, which seems crazy to me. It’s unlikely any one person will win in the first round. The runoff will take place on June 7. Khalea Robinson has been tracking the election with impressive graphs. (AS-COA)
In Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez has been acting head of state for more than 90 days, which is the limit according to Venezuelan law. Regina Garcia Cano explains that Nicolas Maduro is still officially the country’s president. Lawmakers must vote to extend her term by Friday, April 10. If they don’t, it can thrust the country into legal uncertainty. (AP)
Heavy stuff this week, so I wanted to leave you with this delightful story:
Opportunities
The Center for Global Development is searching for a temporary Research Assistant in Gender Equality.
🤓 📚 Interrupt Your Bookshelf 📚 🤓
Molly Crabapple’s great grandfather created “memory paintings” after the Holocaust. One was of a young girl, Itka, the Bundist. That is how Crabapple learned about the Jewish Labor Bund, a once powerful political force in eastern Europe. The Bundists fought for dignity and equality, not in an imagined homeland in Palestine but “here where we live.” In Here Where We Live Is Our Country, she tells their story. You can win a copy of the book by entering a drawing. You must be an active Interruptrr subscriber. Deadline for entries: Monday, April 13 at 9:00am ET.
Postscript
Thirty-two years ago this week, Rwanda descended into genocide. Starting on April 7, 1994, over the course of a 100 days, Hutu extremists slaughtered upwards a million Tutsis in the country. The UN, who was on the ground, stood aside as did the US and other Western powers.
On that same day this past week, Donald Trump posted that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” He threatened to blow up bridges and power plants. Thankfully, at the 11th hour he agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
Rwanda and Iran are in no way interchangeable. But together they point to a familiar pattern: the indifference leaders have towards Black and brown people. In the case of Rwanda, as is the case with what is happening right now in Sudan, (which marks three years of civil war next Wednesday), the West dismissed the genocide as an “internal conflict.” In the US, Black people have long lived with another expression of that same order—disposability at home, whether through state violence, neglect, or exclusion.
In the case of Iran, Trump’s words about destroying the country and its people did not come out of thin air. They emerged from decades of political conditioning in which Muslims are cast as a civilizational threat. It’s a framing political scientist Samuel Huntington shaped with his “clash of civilization” thesis. It gave intellectuals and policy makers permission to “other” the Islamic world. They not like us. Sorry, Lamar.
Trump’s words are less an exception than a manifestation of America’s ugliest instincts. And he, himself, is the most vulgar demonstration of crude, unchecked power. —Elmira
