Think Different

A conversation about Trump and trade and my thoughts on soft power.

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There’s a lot going on. From the US going into Gaza, to trade wars, to USAID shutting down—and cutting its workforce down to 290, it’s hard to focus. I’ve written my column, per usual. But I also recorded a conversation about Trump and trade with Heather Hurlburt. Heather served in the Biden administration as Chief of Staff to the US Trade Representative Katherine Tai. I’d love your thoughts about this short convo. I’m thinking of making it a regular feature. Just hit respond and let me know what you think. — Elmira

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Trump and Trade

The tariffs! Heather Hurlburt helps make sense of Trump’s tariffs and trade approach. You should check out her conversation at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her most recent piece is entitled, “Can the international order survive Trump 2.0?”

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Think Different

Each semester, no matter what course I’m teaching, I like to kick off with a look at power. What is it? How do you get it? How many different forms can it take? Students usually identify “hard power” first—the kind measured by tanks, warheads, and GDP.

Then I screen the 1997 Apple 'think different' commercial, which is a montage of iconic figures including Amelia Earhart, Maria Callas, Gandhi, Muhammed Ali, Martin Luther King Jr., and Picasso. There’s not one iMac to be found. Why, I ask, is Apple, ostensibly a technology company, featuring historic figures rather than computers? The students inevitably land on it: Apple associates its products with greatness. It is presenting an ideal, not merely technology.

Political scientist Joe Nye called that soft power—the notion that you can attract rather than coerce—inspire, not bully. Soft power—creativity, generosity, investment, and innovation—has been key to America’s strength for much of the 20th century until recently. It was key in how America prevailed in the Cold War. While the Soviets threw resources into building more tanks and nuclear warheads, average citizens in the Eastern bloc were left either to queue for the only poorly made clothing, furniture, and shoes on offer. Many opted to spend a month’s salary on blackmarket American made jeans. Levi’s along with other things Western carried mythical allure behind the Iron Curtain. To paraphrase Sally from the Nora Ephron movie, everyone there wanted to have what the West was having.

I saw this phenomenon firsthand. When I was in grade school and my family traveled from the US to visit relatives in Turkey, my mother would cram suitcases full of chewing gum, sneakers, jeans, aluminum foil, chocolate, and coffee—coffee to the land of coffee—because these simple goods were scarce or of poor quality. A closed economy and top down government produces shoddy knock-offs. More importantly, it deprives citizens of choice and innovation.

Wendy’s, the fast food chain, zeroed in on that with its Soviet fashion show commercial back in the 1980s. The burger chain lampooned Soviet ‘fashion’ precisely because the lack of variety exposed an absence of imagination and courage.

Today, we have a president who lacks both. He interprets power in its rawest, most transactional form. It’s one thing for a president to believe in protecting US workers versus free trade and having differing views on how to use aid and diplomacy. It’s another to reduce the entire American promise to his need for continued attention— and a tech mogul’s quest to bend policy to his latest venture. The collateral damage is the country’s global allure—one that China is ready to fill.

Beijing’s communist leaders have been working on building their country’s soft power for the past decade, namely through the Belt and Road Initiative, investing in roads, roadways and infrastructure across Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe. They took the lessons of the US not only during the Cold War but afterwards with programs such as President George W. Bush’s PEPFAR initiative, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Launched in 2003, PEPFAR, a program under USAID’s remit, directed billions of dollars toward combating HIV/AIDS worldwide—particularly in sub-Saharan Africa—and has saved an estimated 25 million lives. That kind of large-scale investment isn’t mere charity; it builds goodwill and a lifeline to struggling nations and their citizens—and a connection to hope. Removing that investment will only guarantee that something else will fill the vacuum—China, in the best case scenario, extremist organizations or gangs in the worst. There’s a reason Boko Haram and Al Shabaab succeed in recruitment in West and East Africa, respectively.

Most of us understand that inspiring people is far more effective—and more satisfying—than threatening them. Good leaders earn loyalty through trust, generosity, and empathy, not through intimidation. Countries, it turns out, aren’t so different. The reason US culture and commerce wove themselves into the dreams of people around the globe wasn’t because we had all the guns or the biggest bombs. It’s because people saw the best of what this country could offer: innovation, social mobility, and the belief that yes, we can. That is America’s real currency, which Trump is rapidly gambling away.

And without that, we’re no more compelling than a gated compound where the residents refuse to leave. Sure, the walls are high, but who’s looking up to us anymore? Who’s making connections? America, for all its flaws, has long been more about its soft than hard power. If we want to keep it that way, we have to remember how we got here in the first place. — Elmira

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Elsewhere in the World.....

On our radar...

USAID

Can a president actually dissolve USAID with an Executive Order? No, writes Tess Bridgeman (Just Security)

As the Trump administration moved to shudder USAID, the US Agency for International Development, Elon Musk claimed that it was riddled with corruption and waste. Rachel Bonnifeld and Justin Sandefur debunk that claim. Read how USAID funds are appropriated, allocated, and spent. (Center for Global Development)

What are the implications of a USAID shutdown? Vanda Felbab-Brown, Caren Grown, Molly Reynolds, and Sweta Shah weigh in with other scholars. (Brookings)

Gaza

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhayu visited Donald Trump this week, the first foreign leader to do so. He is also wanted for arrest for war crimes in Gaza. While the conversation was supposed to focus on the ceasefire, Trump stunned everyone by saying that “the US would take over the Gaza Strip,” and turn into “the Riviera of the Middle East.” It’s a concept without a plan, writes Jennifer Gavito, made all the more difficult after dismantling USAID. (Atlantic Council)

Trump’s Gaza gambit maybe a signal of a changing US position on the West Bank, writes Deb Amos. (Deb Amos Substack)

Trump’s comments about Gaza confirm Israel’s wholesale destruction of Gaza aimed at permanently removing its Palestinian population, write Naama Blatman and Neve Gordon. (Al Jazeera)

Trade War

Shannon O’Neil and Julia Huesa outline what Trump’s tariffs could mean in nine charts. (CFR)

US

Elon Musk and his minions have gained access to confidential government servers under the guise of ridding the US government of waste, fraud, and inefficiency. Nicole Narea on what we know, don’t know, and should be concerned about, namely that Musk, as a private citizen and NOT a government employee, has the potential to profit off the information. (Vox)

So you wanna take back the Panama Canal Donald? In addition to that being illegal, it will be costly, argues Nong Hong. (South China Morning News)

Trump is picking fights with Panama and Greenland. What’s the endgame? Cristina Maza says it’s all about China. (National Journal)

Check out Cristina’s terrific newsletter, Lazo Letters, which drops every Sunday.

From tariffs on allies to gutting aid programs to mocking the rule of law, Trump’s moves could be a dream come true for China. Nahal Toolsi on how Trump is turning out to be a very pro-China president. (Politico)

Africa

Last week we noted that a Rwandan rebel group, M23, invaded eastern Congo. This week, M23 declared a ceasefire, as Congo’s leaders call for them to withdraw.

As M23 Rwandan rebels moved into Goma last week, male inmates at the Munzenze prison attacked about 165 women, raping about 100 and and burning them alive, reports Wedaeli Chibelushi. (BBC)

On January 29, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) raising concerns about access to justice for victims of human rights abuses. All three countries are controlled by the military, after recent coups, writes Ilaria Allegrozzi. (Human Rights Watch)

The Americas

Donald Trump designated Mexican drug cartels as terrorists. That’s something Mexico’s government should also do, writes Melissa Ford. (The Hill)

Panama isn’t surprised by Trump’s imperial fixation, writes Cristina Guevara. (Foreign Policy)

Middle East

In Turkey, police arrested the mayor of the Istanbul region Besiktaş on grounds of corruption. The mayor, Rıza Akpolat, is from the opposition party, the People’s Republic Party (CHP), which seems to be gaining ground on Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Arzu Geybullayeva and Nil Yurda have more. (Global Voices)

Displaced Syrian women are optimistically cautious about the future, writes Kanika Gupta. (World Politics Review)

Europe

As mentioned last week, protests have rocked Serbia over government neglect and corruption. President Aleksandar Vučić’s prime minister resigned last week. Still, that has not tamped down widespread anger. It’s time for the EU to support the Serbian people, says Iliriana Gjoni. (Carnegie Europe)

Europe’s so-called “strongmen” leaders, Hungary’s Orbán, Slovakia’s Fico, and France’s Le Pen, might have thought that Trump’s election would be a boost for them. Not so fast, says Holly Ellyatt, noting the domestic challenges each faces at home. (CNBC)

Technology

Entrepreneurs in Asia and Africa believe DeepSeek, the Chinese AI platform, is proof that you don’t need to have a lot of money to innovate, writes Ananya Bhattacharya. (Rest of World)

Under the Radar

Listen: What does it really take to push yourself to the brink of human possibility? Natalia Mehlman Petrzela dives into the world of risk and pushing the boundaries in this podcast about people who have climbed the highest peaks in the world. (BBC: Extreme Danger)

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Opportunities

The Atlantic Council is taking applications for its Millennium Fellowship.

Brookings is hiring for a Public Affairs and Events Coordinator.

Bookclub Alert! Lourdes Martin, who pens Please, Do Tell, is reading Reading Lolita in Tehran this month. Join her for a virtual discussion on February 27.

Conference Alert! NatSecGirlSquad is hosting its annual conference from March 17-18 in DC. Interruptrr is proud to be a partner. Interruptrr readers get a 25 percent discount at checkout with code: Interruptrr!

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Editorial Team

Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief