Trump 2.0: Breaking Things
Forget America, it's Trump first.
This week, my most favorite people celebrate birthdays: Happy birthday Michelle, Nilgul, Ivana, and Robin!
Apropos of my column today, I’ll be leading a conversation tonight at 5:00pm ET hosted by Connecting the Dots on the future of US foreign policy. It’s virtual, so you can join from anywhere! RSVP here.
This week, Trump unveiled the team that will help reshape US foreign policy. 😳 It indicates that his foreign policy will be “Trump first” more than for America. They include individuals who are Trump loyalists, rather than experienced, much less leading hands. That is easily evident with the appointments of Peter Hegseth for secretary of defense, Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence, and Elise Stefanik for US ambassador to the UN.
Hegseth is an anchor for Fox & Friends who has served in the military but has no managerial experience. That’s a concern for a job that is the second largest employer in the world, overseeing nearly 3 million people. But, as the WSJ says, he has attacked the Pentagon’s “woke policies on transgender and racial equity,” and “made a cause of opposing women in combat. Mr. Trump seems to want Mr. Hegseth to wage a culture war against the military brass.” China and Russia are no doubt pleased. As they grow in strength and challenge American supremacy and, therein, interests, the commander-in-chief has made his defense department the enemy.
Gabbard is also an Army veteran and a former Democratic congresswoman. (The first Hindu in Congress). Yes, she ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020. Since then she has defended Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, called out the Biden administration for its “woke” policies, and called Ukrainian president, Vlodomyr Zelensky a corrupt authoritarian. Having spent time with Trump, you’d think she would actually know a corrupt authoritarian. As DNI, she would oversee 18 intelligence agencies, including the CIA and NSA, where sorting through fact and fiction is critical. Trump has said he wants to end wars. Yet, with a tendency to fall for misinformation, Gabbard is likely to turn up the dial on conspiracies and put all of us more at risk.
Even before Trump named New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik to represent the US at the UN, it was clear that an “American First” posture would drive away not only alliances but US engagement and commitments to international bodies. Having called the UN a “corrupt, defunct and paralyzed institution,” Stefanik drives that point home. (She is the same person that also drove two college presidents out of a job). It will not, however, dramatically change the US’s role at the UN. Rather than upholding international norms and principles, the US has used the UN as a pulpit to punish its enemies and, especially over the past year, to protect Benjamin Netanyahu.
For someone who campaigned on ending wars, Trump’s picks for the state department and national security advisor are more curious. The president-elect named Florida Senator Marco Rubio to be America’s top diplomat. He is not a diehard MAGA disciple, but a turncoat. He certified the 2020 election that Trump lost. As the son of Cuban immigrants, he would be the first Latino. That might come in handy as Trump fulfills his promise to deport illegal immigrants and crack down on the southern border — both as a spokesperson to Hispanic communities at home and leaders in Latin America.
Rubio, much like Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for national security advisor, is known as a hawk, “a man with a hammer searching for nails,” as Daniel DePetris notes. He voted to arm Ukraine back in 2022 and in 2023 co-sponsored a bill that would require two-thirds of the Senate to approve a pull out of NATO. On China, both Rubio and Waltz are unequivocally hardline. That might come in handy as Trump unleashes tariffs, which he considers a “beautiful word.” 🤔 It might be trickier if China’s leader decides to seize Taiwan. It is unlikely that Trump would come to Taiwan’s defense, unless, of course, Taiwan presents Trump with a compelling offer. For Trump, who lacks any ideological grounding, everything is transactional.
That is bad news for Ukraine, which might be strong-armed to ceding territory to Putin in an effort to end that war. Ditto, the Palestinians, especially in the West Bank, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long had his eye on. Trump’s appointee to be US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, has said that “there is no such thing as a Palestinian” and has backed the idea of Israel taking over the West Bank.
It is also bad news for Americans. And I’m not even talking about how Trump’s proposed tariffs will jack up inflation. (That’s a future post.) The bad news is, as I mentioned last week, the kleptocratic hole we’re about to be plunged into.
During his first presidency, Trump profited from the numerous individuals, including himself, who stayed on his properties in DC and Mar-a-Lago. That includes businessmen, GOP figureheads, foreign leaders, and the Secret Service. Out of office, Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner landed a $200 million investment from wealth funds in the Gulf. Kushner and former Trump appointee Ric Grenell have been engaged in real estate development in the Balkans.
This time, Trump has turned to Elon Musk to curb government spending. The Tesla and Space X founder will oversee the “department of government efficiency,” along with entrepreneur and former Republican candidate for president, Vivek Ramaswamy. As Marina Koren says, having two tech bros lead this initiative seems the very definition of inefficient.
Space X has billion dollar contracts with a number of federal agencies, including defense, NASA, and the Federal Aviation Administration. Musk could, as Koren notes, “shift government functions to private companies in the name of cost cutting.” Worse, he could end regulations on safety, in the name of “moving fast, breaking things.”
Fast is certainly how Donald Trump is starting out his second term. No doubt, he’ll also succeed at breaking everything. — Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
The week after….
It’s not just who is president, writes Karen Greenberg. What’s at stake is the future of the presidency and its powers. She reflects on past presidents — and the one to come….(Tom’s Dispatch)
Listen: What can we expect from Trump 2.0? Kori Schake and Dan Drezner look at Ukraine, the Middle East, and China. (The Foreign Affairs Interview)
Elon Musk will head the “Department of Government Efficiency.” What should we expect? Marina Koren takes a look. (The Atlantic)
Europe will lose a close ally when Trump moves back into the White House in January. Cristina Maza looks at how European leaders are preparing for a new America. (National Journal)
Not directly related to the election…..
Men continue to dominate newsrooms, particularly at the top. One in three reporters is female. In terms of expertise, only one in four experts interviewed are women. Sarah Macharia, Agneta Söderberg Jacobson, and Malak Monir penned this report: “Breaking Barriers: A Whole-of-Society Approach to Gender Equality in Media Development.” It dives into the data and offers recommendations for improving gender balance in the media. And this matters. “Women will have trouble attaining leadership positions if there are no policies ensuring equal opportunities in hiring and advancement, or if women entrepreneurs cannot get funding from investors.” (CIMA)
If we want to see women get elected, we need to make sure women are being tapped to be experts for articles and women are making decisions at the top level. Who we see and hear from matters. Let’s Interrupt!
COP 29
The UN’s 29th climate change conference started on Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan. (😬Yeah, we know.) With Trump’s election, the sun seems to be setting on US leadership to address global warming, writes Elizabeth Kolbert. (New Yorker)
One of the main tasks at COP 29 is to “broker a deal that ensures up to trillions of dollars in financing for climate projects,” writes Kate Abnett. (Reuters)
Azerbaijan’s president said (with a straight face) that oil is a “gift from God.” Georgina Rannard and Maia Davies report. (BBC) 🙄
Trump-proofing
On the campaign trail, Trump has questioned US support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. Indeed, as Evelyn Farkas notes, there’s “no sign” of approaching Putin the “way Ronald Reagan approached the Soviet Union.” To save Ukraine and avoid WW III, invite the country into NATO before Trump takes office. (The Hill)
Looking towards the Middle East, Ellie Geranmayeh, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Hugh Lovatt look at how Israel and Iran might be thinking about the next US president. Israel might feel emboldened, while Iran might double down on its nuclear ambition. It’s a dangerous combination. They argue that Europe needs to jump into action to prevent a regional — and a wider war. (ECFR)
As Biden looks to move out of the White House, he can cut off military aid to Israel, says Stacy Gilbert. It may be considered an insignificant step, but it would be “a brave return to US law and humanitarian principles.” (Foreign Policy)
Africa
The device you’re reading from right now is likely a product of children mining coltan in the Congo — and fueling conflict. And that’s a problem, says Pauline Omboko Shongo. She outlines recommendations to combat child labor, which has impacted more than 40,000 children. (African Arguments)
Also, tech companies - do better, seriously.
We’ve previously noted that recent elections in Mozambique, in which the incumbent party won yet again, have sparked protests. Ruth Castel-Branco notes that this type of pushback would have been unfathomable years ago. She outlines how the opposition has mobilized the public and promoted civic engagement. (Africa is a Country)
Asia
A number of governments, including and notably Israel’s, are asking their citizens to return from travels to Sri Lanka after security forces identified a potential terrorist threat. Mandana Ismail, Uditha Devapriya, and Omar Rajarathnam explain the ins and outs of the situation, thinking about Sri Lanka’s reliance on tourism and its relationship with Israel. (The Diplomat)
Thousands of students at Chinese universities were embarking on nighttime bike rides from Zhengzhou to Kaifeng. Oiwan Lam says this started as a way to promote tourism, but the government quickly intervened and put a stop to it when the bike rides were perceived as a political threat. (Global Voices)
The Americas
Troubles in Haiti continue. The country’s ruling presidential council inaugurated a new prime minister, after ousting the sitting executive, only after six months. Jacqueline Charles lays out the ongoing challenges, including gang violence that forced a Spirit Airlines flight to divert to the Dominican Republic. (Miami Herald)
Bolivia’s former president Evo Morales is on a hunger strike. Isabel Debre and Jaun Karita say Morales began his hunger strike in hopes of starting a political dialogue. (AP)
Europe
Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister. And then his governing coalition collapsed. Katharina Karcher explains what happened and what’s to come. For one thing, there won’t be elections until early next year. (The Conversation)
Anti Semitic attacks have rocked Amsterdam following a soccer match between Maccabi Tel Aviv and the Dutch based Ajax. Cybele Mayes-Osterman has more. (USA Today)
The British Conservative party elected Kemi Badenoch as its new leader. She’s the first Black woman to do so. Don’t get excited, writes Nesrine Malik. She’s not necessarily looking out for Black constituents, focused on an “anti-woke” agenda. Sigh. (Guardian)
The pro-Kremlin ruling party, Georgian Dream (GD), barely edged a majority in Georgia’s elections last month. Tinatin Akhvlediani explains how we got here and what’s next for the country and the European Union. (Euronews)
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is feeling bold following Trump’s victory. Zsuzsanna Szelényi weighs in on the ways he is trying to put Hungary at the center of global decision-making. (Carnegie Europe)
Middle East
Yes, Trump’s election knocked this section back to the bottom. Don’t worry though. It will climb back up soon…. 😐
While we were all watching the US elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant. The two had been reported to have clashed over the past year over where Israel’s armed forces should be focused. Jessica Buxbaum looks at what led Bibi to fire Gallant and what that means for the war in Gaza. (The New Arab)
Israel has banned the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). UNRWA is the main humanitarian body delivering services and support to Palestinians. Lubna Masarwa argues that this will hurt Palestinians, but it will not “bury” the Palestinian struggle. (Middle East Eye)
Qatar it out. The country announced it would not act as a mediator between Israel and Hamas. Aya Batrawy reports. (NPR)
Meanwhile, Turkey has cut off diplomatic relations with Israel… It’s the only country in the region to do so. Watch this space.
Science and Climate Change
The Pacific Island nation of Tuvalu signed a pact with Australia to allow Tuvalu citizens to emigrate to Australia. This pact, the bilateral Falepili Union, is in response to the increased risk of climate change on the island nation. Catherine Wilson clues us in. (WPR)
Technology
Fake X accounts are interfering in Ghana’s elections. Caroline Haskins says over 170 bot accounts are using ChatGPT to write posts favoring the right-wing incumbent ahead of presidential elections next month. (Rest of World)
Under the Radar
Who is protecting the women who protect the Amazon in Colombia? Mie Hoejris Dahl discusses. (WPR)
Opportunities
The White House Fellowship has opened.
The Institute for Global Affairs is taking applications for its Nonresident Fellows Program for the Independent America Project.
The International Crisis Group is hiring for a Senior Analyst, China. Go work with our friend Ali Wyne!
The Women’s Equality Program is hiring for a Program Officer.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith