Trump on My Mind
Xi Jinping went to France, with the US and, in particular, Donald Trump in mind. For his part, Emmanuel Macron has Trump on his mind too, as he pushes Europe to embrace "strategic autonomy."
Happy birthday Marcia, May, and Wardah!
And huge congrats to Laura Stone, who just became the US Ambassador to the Marshall Islands.
Is it just me, or was this week especially tiring? In a who’s on first and what’s on second, Hamas accepted the ceasefire and hostage deal that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called “extraordinarily generous” on Israel’s part. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it did not meet his terms. Perhaps. Things in negotiations change. But perhaps Hamas called Netanyahu’s bluff. His vow to invade Rafah — deal or no deal — made that easy.
The Israeli prime minister, eager to please the extreme right wing in his government and cling onto power, ordered the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to seize the Rafah border crossing on Monday, in preparation for a possible ground invasion of the city. It has already started airstrikes on Rafah. That’s something Joe Biden has resisted. This week, the US president said he would halt the shipment of bombs to Israel if the country did invade — a first for any US president to withhold aid to Israel.
As I noted last week, Biden certainly has November’s election on his mind — along with a young electorate and important Arab-American voting block in Michigan, a swing state, that is outraged at the massive loss of life in Gaza and Washington’s role in enabling it. Biden is not alone. Two others also have the US elections and, while I hate to say it, Donald Trump on their minds: China’s Xi Jinping and France’s Emmanuel Macron.
China’s leader traveled to Europe this past week. It was his first trip in five years. France was his first stop. That was intentional and has everything to do with France’s president — and Donald Trump.
Macron came to power in 2017, a few months after Donald Trump took over the White House. Unlike his European counterparts who were weary of Trump’s presidency, Macron, in an effort to appear as a global statesman, embraced Trump in what came to be dubbed a “bromance.” 🤢
By late 2018, Trump started taking pot shots at the French leader, while Macron gave a speech in which he said that Europe could no longer rely on the US for security; that it needed “strategic autonomy.” On a visit to Beijing last year, Macron, as Tara Varma notes, “told reporters that Europe must resist pressure to become America’s vassal, giving the impression that Europe was caught between America and China.” (After Brussels balked, Macron walked his words back.)
This past February, Macron said that he didn’t rule out sending troops into Ukraine — to fight Russia. 😳 (There’s a lot of 😳 this week). Yeah, Germany was not happy, but that’s a separate issue…. Last week, in an interview with The Economist, Macron repeated the importance of Europe building its own defense strategy. That “strategic autonomy” is something that appeals to China’s Xi and something he wants to exploit, in order to drive a wedge between Europe and the United States. Make an enemy of my enemy.
As Valbona Zeneli notes,
Given China’s prominent position on the transatlantic agenda, Xi’s tour in Europe after five years may seek to identify avenues to weaken Europe-US coordination, with the hope that the European Union could act as a counterweight to perceived American “hostility” toward China.
For his part, Macron used the visit as an opportunity to, as Varma says, “end, or decrease, (Xi’s) support for Putin in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and notably not to provide Russia with key military material.”
Xi has walked a tightrope on Russia. He directed China to vote for a UN General Assembly resolution calling out Russia’s aggression on Ukraine. But, as Simone McCarthy and Xiaofei Xu note, “Beijing has so far given little appearance of using its leverage with Russia to push the country toward a resolution that would be favored by Europe.”
The current state of play appeals to Xi. Moscow has sought out Beijing’s support, specifically for technological capabilities and military resources. In turn, Beijing has received cheap Russian oil. The longer the war goes on, the weaker Russia becomes — and that makes China the stronger power in the relationship. Therein lies the other aspect to Xi’s visit to France.
Xi is interested in garnering power, especially as the US elections approach. Should Trump prevail, he is likely to pursue the hardline approach towards China he took during his first term. A recent Foreign Affairs article, penned by former Trump advisor Matt Pottinger and former Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher, gives a glimpse into what a Trump China policy would look like. In a piece that is subtitled, “America’s competition with China must be won,” they argue that “Washington will need to adopt rhetoric and policies that may feel uncomfortably confrontational but are necessary to reestablish boundaries that Beijing and its acolytes are violating.” Those policies include increasing US defense capabilities and severing China’s access to Western technology.
The latter is not something that Xi wants. Hence, his effort to cozy up to the self-styled Mr. Europe in Paris. Emmanuel Macron has vied to shape Europe’s legacy since he took power. Should Trump ascend to the White House this coming fall he might have to help shape one for the liberal world order. — Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Mr. Xi goes to Europe
Yeah, yeah, Elmira overlooked Xi’s visit to Serbia and Hungary. Both Russia allies, those were all about making Xi feel and look good at home. 🥱😴
So how did Xi Jinping decide to travel to France, Serbia, and Hungary? Valbona Zeneli explains that it’s a combination of testing the transatlantic alliance (in France) while showing EU-China cohesion (in Serbia and Hungary). (The Diplomat)
Xi’s visit to Europe reveals the “fault lines” in EU unity, says Tara Varma, in this comprehensive overview of the Chinese premier’s visit. (Brookings)
While in Europe, Xi Jinping wants to set the record straight on China’s position in the Russia-Ukraine war, says Simone McCarthy. (CNN)
After stopping in France to meet with French President Macron, China’s President Xi Jinping headed to Serbia and Hungary for the remainder of his Europe tour. With the urge to shift from the US-led world order, Xi’s visit seeks to ease Europe’s attitude towards Beijing, say Yukio Tajima and Madoka Kitamatsu. (Nikkei Asia)
Israel-Gaza
The US Congress recently approved a $15 billion military aid package to Israel. It includes $1.2 billion toward the “Iron Beam” laser weapon, an air defense system. Stavroula Pabst warns that the aid package could further fuel greater regional conflict. (Responsible Statecraft)
Watch: AI is supposed to help militaries make precise strikes. So, what’s happening in Gaza? Rajaa Elidrissi talks to experts who say that Israel is taking a different tactic. It is using bombing targets, which has led to a high number of Palestinian deaths. (Vox)
Israel has become an international pariah. Do Israelis care? Dahlia Scheindlin reflects. (Haaretz)
Eurovision
This is Elmira’s favorite weekend of the year…. Eurovision is taking place in Malmö, Sweden, which is also one of her favorite destinations. Here’s a guide to all the songs.
Israel has participated in Eurovision since 1973, primarily because it is an active member of the European Broadcast Union (EBU). (Europeans are special people.) This year, there has been a campaign to bar the country from participating. Russia was banned after it invaded Ukraine in 2022. EBU has held firm, saying that Eurovision is not political, though it did ask Israel’s contestant Eden Golan to change the lyrics of the song “October Rain.” She did not agree. Ayelet Yagil has more about the unfolding drama. (New Lines Magazine)
Though things are looking especially tense at this year's Eurovision competition, it would be incorrect to say that the contest has been historically apolitical. Silke Wunsch fills us in on the details. (DW)
US
Following China's crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong and the spy balloon over the US, Washington dug into its economic toolkit to retaliate. It was a limited retaliation, which makes sense, says Emily Kilcrease. Extreme measures could escalate tensions. Yet, this muted response could also signal to Beijing that perhaps it could invade Taiwan and get away with it. (Foreign Affairs)
Africa
Chad went to the polls on Monday, in an election that is being called the most consequential in decades. That’s because the country has been under military rule for the past three years. Will the country finally transition to democracy? Shola Lawal takes a look and tells us what’s at stake. (Al Jazeera)
Asia
A Hong Kong court ruled that the government can now ban the famous protest anthem “Glory to Hong Kong.” The song rose to fame during protests in 2019 but is now considered dangerous. Anna Gordon explains how this is the latest move in Hong Kong’s erosion of democracy. (Time)
India is currently holding general elections, through June 1. As parties and politicians campaign, they’re turning to AI. The big deal, as Barkha Dutt points out, is that they’re using the dead in videos and images to resurrect the past. Is that ethical? (Rest of World)
The Americas
In Panama, José Raúl Mulino, a rightwing former public security minister, was declared the “unofficial” winner of last Sunday’s presidential election. Bri Sáenz talked to journalist Edwin Cabrera about the results, which he believes will fail to stabilize the country’s politics. (Wilson Center)
Here’s something we’ve been keeping an eye on at Interruptrr: the feud between Brazil’s Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes and X owner, Elon Musk. Months ago, the judge ordered X to block certain accounts that spread fake news. Though X complied, Musk accused Moraes of censorship and breaking not only Brazilian law but democracy — and threatened to pull X from Brazil. 👀Is Brazilian democracy under threat? Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, Alfredo Attié, Nathalia Foditsch, and Geusseppe Gonzalez discuss. (The Dialogue)
Europe
Lithuanians head to the polls on Sunday to vote in the first round of presidential elections. Since the country has a parliamentary system, it’s the prime minister who has real power. The president is a figurehead. Still, we’re keeping an eye on what happens, especially since the country’s prime minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, said her country could send troops to Ukraine, as part of a training mission. That one gets a 😳 and 👀, which is how the Kremlin must have reacted. We couldn’t find a female byline for this.
And speaking of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin was inaugurated for a fifth term as president of Russia this week. If Putin carries out this six-year term, he will be the longest-serving Russian leader since Catherine the Great. 😳Valerie Hopkins and Anton Troianovski have the details on the “election” that led to this inauguration. (NYT)
Middle East
How can European countries work with an evolving Saudi Arabia? Cinzia Bianco dives deep into Riyadh’s foreign policy approach in this report. (ECFR)
Science & Climate Change
We did think about adding a “flooding” section. Floods have overwhelmed both Kenya and Brazil…
Rain in Kenya is causing catastrophic flooding and destruction, with hundreds of deaths and hundreds of thousands displaced. Jennifer Kwao gives us the rundown from the ground. (African Arguments)
In Brazil, torrential rains have caused massive flooding in the Rio Grande do Sol area. So far, there are 95 dead and 130 missing, with more than a million and a half affected. Vanessa Buschschlüter has more. (BBC)
Venezuela lost its last remaining glacier, now classifying it as an ice field, after it shrunk faster than expected. Neelima Vallangi says that Venezuela is the first country in modern times to lose all of its glaciers. (Guardian)
Technology
Technology and elections are mixing at an unprecedented level this year. Meta just released guidelines in an attempt to preserve the integrity of the historic election year. Jenny Domino, a member of Meta’s Oversight Board, fills us in on the most salient points. (Just Security)
Under the Radar
It is no surprise that women are driving recent protests in Cuba. Cuban women have struggled the most, particularly in locating basic needs such as food, water, health, and housing. Carla Gloria Colomé with more on Cuban mothers’ stories. (El País)
Avian flu is making a comeback in both birds and mammals that have never encountered the disease before. Mariel Ferragamo dives deep into what this global surge of avian flu means for the future of global public health. (CFR)
The Western Balkans is host to a slew of femicide cases – it's time for policymakers to take action. Tanya Domi and Alex Chen explain the history of these cases, all of which refer to the gender-based killing of women, and how the government could help legally. (Euronews)
Opportunities
Go work for the National Book Foundation! It is hiring for an Awards & Communications Coordinator.
Women for Afghan Women has an opening for the top spot as Executive Director.
Global Health Strategies is hiring for a Communications & Advocacy Manager. Applications close soon!
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith