Turkey's municipal elections 🇹🇷
A few thoughts on the March 31 municipal elections in Turkey
Happy Monday. I had not planned on writing anything about the municipal elections that took place in Turkey yesterday. Following the results, I couldn’t help myself. (You can’t take the Turkey expert out of the girl….) So here we go. We’ll be back on Friday, with a full roundup of the week’s news.
Turkey held municipal elections yesterday. Voter turnout was lower than usual, at around 78 percent (which is still impressive to me). Much to everyone’s surprise, the country’s secular right opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), had a strong showing. The CHP won the mayoralties in 35 cities, including the largest municipalities: Antalya, Bursa, İzmir, the capital city Ankara, and the country’s largest (16 million) and its financial center, İstanbul.
It is important to note here that İstanbul is where the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan catapulted to power in 1994. As mayor, he turned the city around. He improved sanitation and transportation, put an end to the city’s chronic water shortages, and balanced the city’s books, pulling it out of debt. As a native son, İstanbul has always been important to Erdoğan. The city is a political jewel, overseeing a $16 billion budget, that employs multiple thousands and awards lucrative contracts. “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey,” Erdoğan is known to have said in the past.
When his party lost control of it in 2019 to the CHP’s Ekrem İmamoğlu, he initially wouldn’t accept the results, forcing a second vote. This is one of the reasons that yesterday’s CHP victory, in which İmamoğlu once again came out on top, is significant. It is a blow to Erdoğan and his two decade plus grip on Turkish rule. More important, it shows that he is vulnerable.
Turkey is not Russia (not yet at least)
Yesterday’s vote put to rest questions about Turkey’s electoral process and, to a certain extent, its democracy. Since 2002, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has continually dominated the ballot box in Turkey. It has prompted questions about how “free and fair” Turkish elections are. With media firmly in state hands, it is hard to say that Turkish elections are fair. Opposition candidates do not get equal airtime in an Erdoğan dominated media. Moreover, any media channel that would challenge or criticize Erdoğan would be punished. Yet, it is hard to say that the country’s elections are not free. Erdoğan accepted yesterday’s results.
It’s the economy, stupid
Turkish voters showed that pocketbook issues matter. Inflation reached 85 percent in October and this past March stood at 70 percent. Erdoğan has taken an extremely unorthodox approach to handling the country’s economy, refusing to raise interest rates to cut price hikes. Yesterday, voters let him know that his approach isn’t working.
Focus on the win, not the man
Given Turkey’s persistent economic woes and following a devastating earthquake in the southeast in February 2023 that killed about 55,000, Erdoğan appeared vulnerable leading up to the May general election. Yet, the opposition CHP put up the uncharismatic, professorial figure Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Kılıçdaroğlu is an Alevi, a minority religious sect in Turkey. The combination of uncharismatic and minority was enough for Erdoğan to eke out a win among a largely conservative and nationalistic electorate. Last summer, the CHP removed Kılıçdaroğlu, much to his chagrin, and elected a new leader. It marked the first time that the party, which the country’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded, ousted a party head who failed to win. The lesson: Kılıçdaroğlu was a bad candidate and a bad party leader.
Plus ça change
While the opposition can celebrate yesterday’s election results, it shouldn’t let it go to its head. The New Welfare Party (YRP) doubled its votes in yesterday’s election, winning two municipalities in the Anatolian heartland and driving in six percent of the vote. The YRP is the party of the late Necmettin Erbakan’s son, Fatih and is like the “old” Welfare Party, the predecessor to Erdoğan’s AKP, religious and conservative. It attracted disaffected AKP voters. Its strong showing indicates that Turkish voters in the middle of the country have not abandoned their traditional values and outlook. Looking ahead, if the CHP is serious about defeating Erdoğan in 2028, when the next general election is set to take place, it needs a strategy that will resonate with this constituency.
What comes next?
Erdoğan is a fighter and one of the most astute politicians Turkey has had. A few weeks ago, he said that this municipal election would be his last. Turkey’s constitution bars him from running a third time. Yet, just as he did in 2017, don’t be surprised if Erdoğan makes a push to amend the constitution to run for a third term. In the meantime, Erdoğan will focus on fixing Turkey’s economy and getting back to the reason that Turks elected him in the first place: getting things done.
Whatever Turkey’s future holds, it is one where Erdoğan will continue to play a central role. The Turkish president may have been dealt a blow yesterday, but it’s important to keep in mind that after two decades in power, Erdoğan has shaped Turkey and its institutions. L'État, c'est moi has real meaning in Turkey and it will require more than just someone to succeed Erdoğan. — Elmira
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith