Reading the Tea Leaves
Japan's state visit, followed by the Trilateral Leaders' Summit was about China — and the future.
Eid mubarek, İyi bayramlar ✨🌙
Happy birthday Diane and Tom!
Between the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the White House has its hands full. Still, it managed to lock its focus on the Pacific this week. The obvious reason is China. Growing in military and economic might, the US is concerned about a more powerful China on the global stage. Last week, Biden dispatched his treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, to Beijing, (where her chopstick game was strong — and who knew that the Brooklyn girl dare try psychedelic mushrooms? We did. Brooklyn girls definitely dare, sometimes to their detriment 👀).
Yesterday, the US president hosted the first Trilateral Leaders’ Summit between the US, Japan, and the Philippines1. The day before, Biden hosted Japan’s prime minister, Kishida Fumio for a state visit, replete with a White House dinner where Paul Simon performed. Yes, a lot of pomp and circumstance. Yet, if you carefully read the proverbial tea leaves, as Motoko Rich has, it’s also about future-proofing the Pacific region as the US’s role on the world stage is up in the air and, possibly more importantly, in case Donald Trump wins the November election.
In addition to ramping up its economic game, China has been pouring resources into its defense and security. In March, China upped its military spending 7.2 percent to $231 billion, which falls below what the US spends on defense ($886 billion). Still, as Bloomberg notes, “China’s spending on its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has risen by at least 6.6% each year for the past three decades.” China now boasts the largest navy in the world. And it wants the Pacific region to know it.
For the better part of the past year, China has been harassing Philippine ships in the South China Sea. As Karen Lema points out, at issue is a 200-mile zone that is vital to the Philippine economy “but which Beijing claims as its own.” That has prompted Philippine president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr2. to take a hard line against China and embrace the United States. The US and Philippines have had a mutual defense treaty since 1951, which the Biden administration reaffirmed last year. That’s especially important as everyone eyes Beijing’s moves regarding Taiwan.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has repeatedly talked about China’s “reunification” with Taiwan, currently a self-ruled territory, as “inevitable.” That’s something that worries the Philippines, which sits just 150 miles south of the island territory. Ditto for Japan and the US. Japanese officials have pointed out that 90 percent of their country’s energy needs are imported from water around Taiwan. “Japan and other parts of the world actually are very much dependent on maritime traffic that passes through the South China Sea,” Ricardo Jose, a professor at the University of Philippines told CNN.
For the US, and in particular Joe Biden himself, maintaining Taiwan’s independence from Beijing is about keeping China’s power in check — even while the US does not formally “recognize” the Taiwanese government. Forty-five years ago this week, on April 10, 1979, the US adopted the Taiwan Relations Act, committing to support Taiwan’s self-defense and security.
To keep China’s power in check, the Biden White House has been working hard to bolster alliances. In addition to the Trilateral Leaders’ Summit this week, Biden brought together South Korea and Japan’s leaders to Camp David last summer to sign a cooperation agreement. He has poured significant resources into the “Quad” — an alliance between the US, India, Australia, and Japan.
Japan has been the common denominator throughout. For the past several years, the country has moved from being pacifist (since WWII) that depended on the US for security to becoming a military power in its own right. Last December, Kishida’s government unveiled a $56 billion dollar defense plan, a 16 percent increase from prior years. This week’s state visit put into focus Biden’s wider aim: to replace the so-called “hub and spoke” model from DC to Tokyo. Rich writes why:
With Mr. Biden facing a tight re-election contest with his predecessor and Mr. Kishida’s approval ratings falling to record lows amid a political scandal, the leaders are expected to discuss ways to entrench their countries’ alliance so it remains strong even if they are no longer around to nurture it.
The goal is to “create a situation where no one can unbind their ties,” said Narushige Michishita, a professor of international relations at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.
Overstretched with the Russian war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza, Biden is thinking creatively about how best to manage a surging China and avoid a confrontation over Taiwan, especially with an increasingly isolationist GOP and in the event that he and his team aren’t around after January 2025. This is not just “country first,” but the “free democratic world first” — American leadership.
I’m always ready to criticize whoever is in the White House and don’t hold back on Biden bashing. On this, however, I have to say, he gets high marks. If you ask any of my students, that’s quite the compliment coming from me.— Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Trilateral Leaders’ Summit & Japan’s state visit
The first-ever trilateral meeting between the US, Japan, and the Philippines took place this week. What’s on the agenda for the meeting? Maya Krainc says it’s all about China. (Responsible Statecraft)
The US hosted Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida Fumio this week, signaling a newfound importance of the US-Japan alliance. Susan Berresford and Kazuyo Kato worry that the US is not prepared enough to foster this relationship. (The Diplomat) 😬
Eyebrow raise of the week: Japan’s prime minister told Biden that he wants to hold face-to-face talks with North Korea. And Biden said it was a good idea. Sakura Murakami explains why Kishida wants to meet with Kim Jung Un and why Biden approves. (Reuters) 🤨
It’s too early for a victory lap between the US and Japan, say Jennifer Kavanagh and Kelly Grieco. Both “still lack the coordinated decision-making processes and integration required to credibly fight together in the event of conflict.” And that risks emboldening China. (Foreign Policy)
Africa
Zimbabwe rolled out a new currency this week, the ZiG. Backed by gold, it’s the country’s sixth currency since 2008. Huileng Tan on the ZiG’s pros and cons. Like will it zag? Bad joke, we know. Elmira insisted. (Business Insider)
Tensions are on the rise in Togo ahead of parliamentary elections at the end of April. Lorraine Mallinder explains why opposition figures are accusing President Faure Gnassingbe of changing the rules to keep his grip on power. (Al Jazeera)
Senegal managed to pull off a successful election at the end of last month. Ellen Ioanes remarks that when so much of the world is backsliding on democratic norms, that’s a big deal. She explains why. (Vox)
Asia
South Korean voters told incumbent President Yoon Suk Yeol they’re not happy. In parliamentary elections held on Wednesday, his People Power Party (PPP) lost by a large margin. Hyonhee Shin and Ju-Min Park note that it’s time for Yoon to be less combative and more cooperative. (Reuters)
What are the key takeaways from South Korea’s election? On foreign policy, they will be considerable. Sue Mi Terry notes that while Yoon tried to beef up South Korea’s role on the global stage and improve ties with Japan, he’ll likely have to tamper that down. (CFR)
India’s lengthy elections begin next week. Astha Rajvanshi dives deep on how the extreme heat the country is expected to face in the coming months will impact elections. (Time)
On April 4, the UNHRC adopted a resolution to ensure continued scrutiny of North Korea’s awful human rights record. Lina Yoon explains this win for the North Korean human rights movement. (HRW)
The Americas
Haiti’s leaders have agreed upon a political framework to return order to the capital and pave the way for elections in 2026. Jacqueline Charles has the details on the 22-month transitional government plan. (Miami Herald)
Watch: Marcia Biggs moderated a spicy discussion on Haiti this week with Monique Clesca, Garry Pierre-Pierre, and Brian Nichols. Monique, a member of the committee working on the Montana Accord - the Commission for the Search for a Haitian Solution to the Crisis, did not hold back. (CFR)
President Dina Boluarte raised eyebrows after sporting luxury Rolex watches in public. After a police raid on her home, the scandal has officially been coined “Rolexgate.” Cynthia McClintock, Augusto Álvarez Rodrich, Julio Carrión, and Anthony Laub survey the potential effects on her regime and the country as a whole. (The Dialogue)
The Pinochet regime left a deadly trail from Chile to Brazil. Ramona Wadi dives deep into the atrocities that occurred during the dictator’s time in power. (Inkstick Media)
Europe
Ireland just confirmed its youngest-ever prime minister. Simon Harris is taking on this role at age 37. Megan Specia has all the details on Fine Gael’s newest leader. (NYT)
Aiding Ukraine is a strategic investment – not charity. Kathryn Levantovscaia explains that beyond the economic advantages, US support of Ukraine strengthens national security and weakens Russia significantly. (Atlantic Council)
Middle East
Israel’s strike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus has upped the stakes of the nation’s long-standing “shadow war.” Shabnam von Hein wonders whether Iran will retaliate. (DW)
Palestinians hoped the US would put pressure on Israel during the Eid al-Fitr holiday, but that did not happen. As the Ramadan fast ends, Israel continues to strike Gaza. Rasha Abou Jalal explains the failure of Egypt, Qatar, and the US to mediate the conflict between Hamas and Israel. (Al-Monitor)
Israelis feel Netanyahu’s government has abandoned them since October 7. Noga Tarnopolsky dives deep into how Israelis are feeling like hostages. (New York Magazine)
Ever since it catapulted to power, Iran’s Islamic rulers have viewed chaos and volatility as a way to advance the country’s interests and influence, writes Suzanne Maloney. As Washington grapples with trying to disengage from the Middle East but still getting caught up in the region, Tehran has an opportunity to “debilitate” Israel and humiliate the United States. (Foreign Affairs)
Science & Climate Change
It’s no secret that the climate crisis is threatening the human rights of many populations. Finally, some of these cases have been brought to the European Court of Human Rights for judgment. Grandmothers in Switzerland, young people in Portugal, and a mayor in France have sued the regional body, which has ruled that indeed, the respective states have failed to protect citizens. Corina Heri fills us in on the rulings. (Just Security)
Technology
AI fakes can be a danger to politicians’ reputations but it turns out some electoral campaigns are using them to their benefit. Rummam Chowdhury explains how AI is already altering this year’s elections worldwide. (Nature)
Under the Radar
Is abortion a matter of national security? Yes, says Lorena O’Neil. That’s especially true as women join the military. They’re sacrificing for a country that isn’t willing to provide access to necessary health care — or grant full bodily autonomy. (Elle)
Once upon a time, women were viewed “equally” in what was the Soviet Union. Today, women in Russia face tremendous discrimination and feminists face tremendous obstacles, including criminal prosecution (because fighting for justice is a crime). Ksenia Maksimova on the challenges for women in Russia, including insufficient legal protection and greater emphasis on “traditional values.” (International Policy Digest)
The first official school for women in Qatar opened in 1957 thanks to Amna Mahmoud Al-Jaydah. Hind Al Ansari thinks it is important that we honor her legacy, especially since women play a significant role in shaping the nation. (Wilson Center)
Opportunities
Remote, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) is hiring a Researcher to work on refugee and migration issues.
If you are a citizen of or resident in the Indo-Pacific region, check out the Equitable Futures Fellowship. Deadline is Monday, April 15. Fellows will explore techniques to empower previously unheard voices and resolve inequity in its many forms, including gaps in income, health care, and education; impacts of the climate crisis; and challenges to societal pluralism. We heard about this through Bloom, a terrific resource via Jasmine Anouna
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith
You can watch Interruptrr Fellow Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania at the NSC, talk about the summit and what the White House is hoping to get out of it.
Yes, Bongbong is the son of the corrupt dictator Ferdinand Marcos, whom the US government coddled in the 1980s.