South Korea Showdown
Democracy seems to have prevailed in South Korea after Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday night. Can it last?
Happy birthday Jed and Deniz!
Don’t think anyone had “South Korea’s president declares martial law” on their 2024 Bingo card. (Hit me up if you did, I want to see if there’s a lottery jackpot in my future.)
On Tuesday night, at about 10:30 pm local time, South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law — suspending civilian rule. That’s normally done during war or a major crisis. Neither took place. Nor did the proper procedures for declaring martial law, which involve lawmakers. Yoon said martial law was necessary because the country was “on the verge of collapse” because of “pro-North Korean forces” in government. That’s a curious claim given that South Korea is the 4th largest economy in Asia and 13th in the world — hardly a situation where a stagnating dictatorship could usurp an economic and growing cultural powerhouse. (BTS 4evah). Dua Lipa, who was in Seoul for a number of sold out concerts, was no doubt confused.
Perhaps because South Korea has a painful history with martial law and the memory of military rule is still fresh, (South Korea only became a democracy in 1987), South Korean parliamentarians, including those from Yoon’s own People Power Party (PPP), were having none of it. As many as could rushed to the National Assembly to cast a vote to lift the declaration, even though soldiers and police had surrounded the building. One female parliamentarian crawled between one policeman’s legs. Several hours later, Yoon stood down. Opposition lawmakers said they would vote to impeach Yoon this weekend.
While many are relieved that democracy prevailed for the moment, Yoon’s power grab is concerning — not just for South Korea but other advanced democracies, including the US.
And a power grab it was. Yoon, a former prosecutor and a political conservative who has been compared to Donald Trump, catapulted to power in 2022, with a razor-thin margin — only 0.8 percentage points. On the campaign trail, he dialed into the manosphere hostility that has become a worrying global trend, vowing to shut down the gender equality ministry and bashing feminism, claiming it discriminates against men. 🙄 Perhaps it is no coincidence that someone who doesn’t believe in equality thought nothing of upending democratic norms. Misogynists, by their very definition, believe in superiority, not rights.
In April, Yoon’s PPP suffered significant losses in parliamentary elections. It has paralyzed his ability to govern. On Monday, the opposition-led parliament scrapped Yoon’s proposed budget for 2025. It has also recently launched a corruption investigation into Yoon’s wife, who apparently accepted a Dior bag, which exceeded the legal gift value limit for government officials. His approval ratings have been hovering around 20 percent.
Yoon came to prominence after prosecuting South Korea’s previous leader, Park Geun-hye. She was impeached and convicted on corruption charges — one of three former leaders to be investigated. In Politico, Nathan Park, a fellow at the Quincy Institute, says that this not only enabled Yoon to become a political player, but it has also weaponized the law. “Instead of normal politics, the expectation is that everything will be reduced to a lawsuit and indictment,” Park says. That becomes dangerous when the lawsuits are numerous and varied, pursuing different theory after theory, which he notes starts to “look like persecution.” “People are not stupid, they can sense if a prosecution is driven by legitimate needs versus a desire to target somebody,” Park says.
The knock-on effect is a loss of trust, in government and institutions. That paves the way for the inevitable rise of opportunists who see a benefit in democratic erosion. Yoon is case in point. As The Economist points out, “the fact that he turned to such an extreme measure (martial law) points to a deeper malaise,” namely political polarization, “with the opposing camps viewing each other as mortal enemies.” Politicians stop considering country and are focused on the political and, even, personal win.
Bloomberg reports (gift article) that already PPP representatives in parliament are rallying around Yoon and the opposition might have a tough time impeaching the president.
That is bad news for South Koreans. With a divided government, little has been accomplished over the past few months. It is also bad news for the outgoing Biden administration. Last year, Yoon visited the White House on an official State visit, in which he wowed everyone with his rendition of American Pie. More importantly, he signed a Tripartite Security Pact with the US and Japan, a historical enemy of South Korea. As I wrote last April, the pact, intended to counter China’s rise, was also about “future-proofing the Pacific region as the US’s role on the world stage is up in the air and, possibly more importantly, in case Donald Trump wins the November election.” It’s probably Biden’s only foreign policy success.
Yet, with the possibility of Yoon gone and the opposition poised to regain power, this has become precarious. Yoon is fiercely opposed to engaging with North Korea. The opposition is not. No doubt, things will change over the next few days and weeks, so what comes next for South Korea and the region remains to be seen. — Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
South Korea
Watch: Former South Korean Foreign Minister Kyung-wha Kang talked to Christiane Amanpour about what happened, noting that the hardliners in power might have gone to Yoon Suk Yeol’s head. (Amanpour & Co.)
Sarah Jeong normally writes about tech. An American born in Korea, she happened to be in Seoul on Tuesday night when Yoon declared martial law. This is her account, with a good backgrounder on Yoon and his misogynist and strongman ways. (The Verge)
Taking badassery to another level. Jung Su Yeon, a South Korean female parliamentarian from the opposition, crawled under the legs of a police officer in order to cast her vote to overturn Yoon’s martial law declaration. Olivia Cleal reports. (Women’s Agenda)
Meanwhile in France….
In France, Marine Le Pen’s far right party led the charge to oust the prime minister this week — the third prime minister to go this year — after disagreements over the budget. Like many far right leaders, Le Pen has been gaining traction. She has been careful not to appear as a chaos agent. Yet, with a pending court case against her claiming she misused public funds, she might have decided that upending the government might be worth the risk. If she is found guilty, she will be barred from running as president. For Emmanuel Macron, the country’s president, this means more instability and unpopularity, as calls for his resignation have increased.
In the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962, French lawmakers voted to oust PM Michel Barnier – forcing him and his Cabinet to resign. Sylvie Corbet and Tom Nouvian break down what all of this means. (AP)
Middle East
Whew, the Middle East. We just moved the section up top. Just before Thanksgiving, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, which already seems like it’s not holding. And anti-regime rebels have retaken Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo.
Israel-Hezbollah
What’s in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire? Mona Yacoubian and Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen lay out the components of the deal — what’s in it for the Lebanese, Hezbollah, and Israel. In short, it’s a 60-day truce. Hezbollah agreed to withdraw north of Lebanon’s Litani River. Israel agreed to withdraw from Lebanese territory. Most importantly, the agreement strengthens an oversight committee that the US will lead. (USIP)
Wait, what about the UN? After the Israel-Hezbollah clash in 2006, the UN Security Council passed resolution 1701. That was also supposed to be an end to the war, and increased the UN peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, UN Interim Force in Lebanon. UNIFIL was created in 1978, to oversee the Israeli withdrawal of southern Lebanon. Yes, in 1978. Iman Ali explains why UNIFIL has failed to keep the peace. (Al Jazeera)
Syrian civil war, awakened
It’s been more than a decade since Syria’s civil war started — and it’s still ongoing. A group formerly aligned with Al Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), overtook Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo. Aleppo had been in the hands of the country’s dictator, Bashar Assad.
What is HTS? How did they succeed in their offensive? What does this mean for Syria and the region? What is the US doing? Natasha Hall has the answers. (CSIS)
In 2016, Assad was able to beat back rebels with Russian assistance. Last week’s offensive led many to decry that it was evidence that Moscow, distracted with its own war in Ukraine, has failed in its efforts to flex on the global stage. Nicole Grajewski says not so fast. This might be a setback for Putin, but watch him back Iran and negotiate with Turkey in order to remain a power broker in the region. (The Atlantic)
Watch: Meanwhile, for 13 years Syrians have been caught in the crossfire of the country’s civil war. Leila Molana-Allen brings us a firsthand look at the war’s victims, including 7-year old Mohammad, who was badly burned when he was 2. This honestly broke our hearts. (PBS News Hour)
Human Rights Day
Tuesday, December 10, marks Human Rights Day. As Donald Trump heads back to the White House, Mireja Faro Sarrats expects him to return to an “impulsive and aggressive diplomacy.” That means the authoritarians are in and human rights are out. She lays out a few areas where the EU can prioritize international collaboration, to counter Trump’s approach. (ECFR)
US
Donald Trump’s reelection as US president has the potential for devastating consequences for a lot of Americans, especially migrants who are at risk of deportation — as the president-elect has promised to and seems intent on deporting millions by the end of 2025. But Anjum Gupta and David Noll see a major flaw in the plan. (Slate)
Trump has said he will level 100 percent tariffs on countries that don’t use the US Dollar as their reserve currency. What is reserve currency? And how did the USD become the reserve currency? Stacey Vanek Smith explains. (Stacey’s Linkedin!)
Africa
President Biden went to Africa this week to discuss the Lobito Corridor project, an expansion of a railway to link the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Angola. Michelle Gavin says the timing of Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter may overshadow this important trip. (CFR)
Namibia has elected Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as its first female president. Wedaeli Chibelushi and Frauke Jensen report. (BBC)
Asia
Tensions between India and Bangladesh have intensified. After Bangladesh’s fallen prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled to India following protests in her country, relations, as Sudha Ramachandran describes, have been on a downturn. This week, Hindu activists vandalized a building belonging to Bangladesh in northwest India. This is one to watch. (The Diplomat)
Who is Bushra Bibi? Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Shah Meer Baloch clue us in on Imran Khan’s wife who is leading protests in Pakistan to demand the former PM’s release from prison. (Guardian)
The Americas
A US-imposed “maximum pressure” campaign on Venezuela only pushed the nation closer to China and Iran the last time. So, despite the fraudulent outcome of the nation’s July elections, Patricia Ventura and David Voght think that it’s essential to avoid this option. The US must act delicately and play the long game if it wants to improve things for the Venezuelan people. (Atlantic Council)
Under a second Trump term, US-Mexico trade relations are likely going to change. Heidi Jane Smith lays out the possible scenarios ahead of US, Mexico, and Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) renegotiations. (Americas Quarterly)
Europe
Georgia on my mind…. Cause it’s still in the headlines. In parliamentary elections a few weeks ago, the ruling Georgia Dream party, aligned with Moscow, claimed victory. This week Georgia Dream announced that it would suspend the country’s application to the European Union. Cue the protests. Ellen Ioanes explains why this is a big deal. (Vox)
Romania held parliamentary elections over the weekend and the far-right is making gains. Andra Diaconescu says the leftist Social Democrat party is set to win, but the country is trending toward unprecedented levels of political polarization. (Euronews)
Science and climate change
Listen: With two wars and a year of huge elections, climate change has taken the back burner. Maria Netto, Ruth Townend, and Roger Harrabin haven’t forgotten and are here to fill us in on the recent COP29 in Azerbaijan. (Chatham House)
Technology
Australia is banning social media for children under the age of 16. Hannah Ritchie on this law that intends to protect children and the criticism it faces, especially from a privacy perspective. (BBC)
Under the Radar
The US Supreme Court is set to hear arguments for one of the most important trans rights cases yet — and hopes aren’t high, especially after the court tore down Dobbs, which guaranteed access for all to abortion. Dahlia Lithwick spoke to expert Chase Strangio about how the decisions are connected. (Slate)
Opportunities
The White House Fellowship has opened.
In London, Semafor is taking application for a Newsroom Fellow.
Applications for the Young Professionals in Foreign Policy’s Rising Experts Program close on December 15.
The World Resources Institute is on hunt for a US Director.
Bully Pulpit is hiring for an Associate Director in Speechwriting & Executive Communication.
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Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
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