The Dealmaker & the Dynasties
The rich Gulf monarchies showered Trump with investments and awards on his trip this week. Can they move the Middle East towards stability—and the Palestinians towards a state?
Lots of birthdays this week….Happy birthday Marcia, Wardah, Shannon, Amy, MP and Nada!
Congrats to Stacey Vanek Smith and Max Chafkin. Their new Bloomberg podcast, Everybody’s Business is now live. Follow and put it in your weekly rotation. It’s informative and fun.
Go Knicks!
And happy Eurovision watching. It’s literally the best weekend of the year.
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Before shifting to this week in the Middle East, it's important to note that this Sunday marks the 81st anniversary of the expulsion of the Crimean Tatars. On May 18, 1944, Joseph Stalin ordered the roundup of Crimea’s indigenous Muslim population. They were packed into airless cattle cars without food, water, or sanitation and deported to Central Asia. Around 200,000 Crimean Tatars were forced from their homes. More than 8,000 died during the deportation. The ethnic cleansing didn’t end there—under Vladimir Putin, the erasure of Crimean Tatar culture and history in Crimea continues.
For half a century, US presidents have stumbled in the Middle East. From Nixon to Biden, each administration since the 1970s has struggled not only to bring about peace between Israelis and Palestinians, but also struggled against hostile dictatorships such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria as well as with less democratic ones such as Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey. This week, Donald Trump landed in a new Middle East—not to chart a new course, but to cash in.
Trump traveled to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—his first foreign trip of his second term. That itinerary, which excluded Israel, spoke volumes: it’s the region’s richest monarchies that hold what Trump wants. Each came through.
That was on display even before Trump left. On Sunday, Qatar bequeathed a $400 million Boeing jet to the US president, to replace the aging Air Force One.
On Tuesday, Trump and 30 US businessmen (they were mostly men) landed in Riyadh to lavender carpeted pomp and circumstance. Saudi Arabia agreed to buy $142 billion in US arms. What was interesting was what came after—a meeting with Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. The US president called al-Sharaa an “attractive guy” and noted that the US would lift sanctions against Syria—a move that no doubt infuriated Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Saudis—and the Turks, who backed al-Sharaa and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) against Bashar Assad—want to see al-Sharaa and, thereby, a Sunni-led and oriented Syria succeed. As I noted in December, Iran (and Russia) lost a powerful proxy in Syria when Assad fell. Israel lost a useful foil.
For years, Netanyahu and other Israeli hardliners justified military incursions into southern Syria and Lebanon by pointing to the threat Iran and its proxies—Hezbollah, Hamas, and Assad—posed. Those pillars have crumbled. Israel decapitated Hezbollah’s command structure and decimated Hamas’s leadership in Gaza. It prompted Assad’s fall. In this reality, where Iranian influence diminished across all fronts, Tehran is no longer fighting for regional hegemony—it’s fighting to survive.
To survive, Tehran has reconciled with Riyadh—its bitter rival since 1979—and embraced overtures from Trump to cut a nuclear deal. According to The Guardian and NYT, Tehran has proposed a joint uranium enrichment program with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, backed by US investment. On Thursday, Trump indicated that a deal between the US and Iran was close.
All of this has redrawn the region’s balance of power.
For Riyadh, the old logic, that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, driving normalization with Israel no longer holds. With Tehran weakened and no longer a regional threat, Israel’s strategic value to the Saudis has faded. Especially as Israel wages a brutal war in Gaza, drawing ire across the Arab world, any diplomatic overture towards Israel would be politically toxic. Without a ceasefire in Gaza—and without a serious commitment to Palestinian statehood—normalization with Israel is simply off the table for the Saudis.
The Middle East’s shifting landscape has made normalization between Turkey and its Kurdish minority not only possible but imperative. Esgi Başaran writes how,
“with Assad now gone, Ankara sees both a vacuum and a danger; especially the possibility of an Israeli-backed Kurdish entity along its border. Within this frame, the Kurdish movement is being nudged towards alignment with Turkey.”
For the past several months, Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been working to end the country’s conflict with the Kurdish terrorist organization, the PKK. This week, in addition to hosting Russian and Ukrainian delegations for peace talks, Erdoğan scored a victory when the PKK announced that it was disbanding and giving up its 40-plus year armed insurgency against the Turkish state. That has given the Turkish autocrat incentive to swap Turkey’s regional rivalry with Saudi Arabia in favor of cooperation and bolster al-Sharaa in Syria.
None of this would have been possible if the US had not empowered Netanyahu’s pursuit of normalization with the Arab world—without forcing him to resolve Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians. That became clear during the Biden administration, when Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, actively sought to expand Trump’s Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia. By all indications that was on the verge of happening in 2023. Had it, it would have cemented Israel’s place in the region, while ending any hope for Palestinian statehood. October 7 was Hamas’s violent—and desperate—attempt to avoid that outcome.
The question is: Did it work?
Hamas’s attack, and Israel’s devastating response, has reshaped the power balance and, thereby, the power alliances in the region. Amid this new calculus, Trump has chosen to go where the money is. Can those with the money now move the region towards stability and finally stand up for the Palestinians? — Elmira
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
Russia-Ukraine
Putin didn’t show up to direct talks with Ukraine on Thursday in Turkey. Still, Russian and Ukranians met for direct talks in Istanbul—the first time in years. Trump had indicated that he would join, if Putin showed up. Then, he threw water over the whole thing by saying, “nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together.”
Meanwhile, the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, has resigned. She explains why in this op-ed, noting that “the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia. (Detroit Free Press)
Bravo Bridget.
Mr. Trump goes to the Gulf
Well, the biggest headline from Trump’s trip to the Gulf this week wasn’t the $400 million jet the Qatars are “gifting” him, but that Trump is lifting sanctions on Syria. The US president met with Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Shara in Saudi Arabia this week. Why now and who benefits? Mona Yacoubian answers. (CSIS)
Donald Trump’s first presidential visit has certainly captured headlines. Along with the fanfare has come megadeals. But that might not be enough to change regional dynamics, let alone solve Middle Eastern challenges, writes Sanem Vakil. (Chatham House)
Though Trump is in the Middle East, he’s skipping Israel. While one shouldn’t read too much into that, says Emma Ashford, it is hard to ignore that Trump’s second term approach to Israel is much more willing to abandon unconditional support for the Jewish state. (Foreign Policy)
Rasha Elass writes about the impact of sanctions on Syria, which are preventing post-Assad reconconstrution. (New Lines)
India-Pakistan
Here’s something one of my students taught me. Following the April 22 terrorist attack on Hindu tourists in Kashmir, India dubbed its military action “Operation Sindoor.” Sindoor is a reddish powder that married Hindu women don, signifying marital status. They wipe it off when they become widowed. As Pragati K.B. and Anupreeta Das note, “the Indian government’s choice of the name…signaled its intention to avenge the widowed women.” But I heard it first from my brilliant student Prisha Bishen, who has a piece coming out in Interruptrr soon. (NYT)
Despite JD Vance’s pronouncement that the US would not get involved in India and Pakistan’s conflict, Trump did act as a go-between, announcing a ceasefire. That’s remarkable, says Rushali Saha. India has historically been opposed to outside mediation, noting that Kashmir is a strictly a bilateral matter. (The Interpreter)
End of the PKK
If we actually lived in a slow news cycle, this story would have dominated headlines. The Kurdish Workers Party, the Kurdish terrorist group known through its initials PKK, gave up its armed struggle against Turkey. Ezgi Basaran lays out how it happened in her excellent Substack. (Angle, Anchor, and Voice)
US
Hard to believe that it was on Monday that the US and China agreed to pause tariffs for 90-days. The US slashed its tariffs on Chinese imports from 145 to 30 percent. China cut its levies on US goods from 125 to 10 percent. The ripple effect of this tit-for-tat escalation won’t disappear anytime soon, writes Zongyuan Zoe Liu. (CFR)
Oh, yes, and the US signed a trade deal with the UK.
This is a great read: The Pope is American! Who has Creole and Haitian ancestry. That, Chelsea Stieber writes, is “part of a broader American story of race, citizenship and migration.” (The Conversation)
While the US deports Venezuelans and other Hispanic migrants to El Salvador, without due process, it has granted refugee status for white South Africans. Yeah. Ximena Bustillo has the story. (NPR)
Meanwhile, the US is taking away Temporary Protected Status from Afghans, noting that the security and economic situation in Afghanistan has improved. Please just say you hate brown people and Muslims.
On Joseph Nye, Suzanne Nossel notes that it is fitting that his passing comes at a time when his “life’s work championing US leadership and liberal internationalism has run aground” in Trump’s second term. (Foreign Policy)
Africa
In Mali, the military junta has banned all political parties, silenced dissent, and delayed elections. As repression deepens, analysts warn that the country's democratic future hangs in the balance, writes Martina Schwikowski. (DW)
Lynsey Addario captures the devastation the war in Sudan has caused. Anne Appelbaum puts into words, noting that the crisis of American leadership has reached this desert. (The Atlantic)
Asia
As mentioned above, the Trump administration is cancelling Temporary Protected Status for about 9.000 Afghans in the US; Afghans who fled after the US-supported government fell in 2021 and most of whom worked to support US efforts. On April 8, it announced that the US would end support for the World Food Program in Afghanistan. Coming on the heels of USAID’s closure, all of this will result in tremendous suffering in Afghanistan, writes Madiha Afzal. (Lawfare)
The Americas
On Tuesday, Uruguay’s former president, José Mujica, passed away. As Nayara Batschke describes, crowds poured into the streets of Uruguay’s capital on Wednesday to bid a “poignant farewell…to a guerilla fighter-turned-pioneering leader who became an icon of the Latin American left.” (AP)
In Bolivia, incumbent President Luis Arce announced he would not seek reelection in August.
Middle East
With the UN’s humanitarian efforts in Gaza stalled and shuttered, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is hoping to succeed it. It’s a private organization that relies on US contractors. Yeah, it’s the privatization of aid. Jessica Le Masurier and Damilola Banjo on how it’s forcing the population to choose between displacement or death. (PassBlue)
Europe
An EU court this week ruled that the NYT could indeed access text messages that EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen sent to pharmaceutical giant Pfizer’s CEO, over Covid-19 vaccine negotiations. And that’s a big deal, especially for transparency advocates, writes Elisa Braun. (Politico)
Under the Radar
Pete Hegseth has cancelled Women, Peace, and Security at the Department of Defense. Doing so might seem like no big deal, write Melanne Verveer and Kim, but it is—and such a waste. (The Persistent)
Who has the power to improve refugee response? Lina Srivastava talks to Hafsar Tameesuddin and Raouf Mazou about power dynamics between refugees and aid organizations and how to shift refugees away from aid dependency towards self-reliance. (Power Shift)
Opportunities
The Gender Equity Policy Institute is hiring for a Vice President, Research.
Women Moving Millions is searching for a Chief of Philanthropy.
Event alert! Next Thursday, May 22, I’ll be on a panel with a number of amazing female founders, where we’ll unveil our portraits and talk about our journeys. In NYC from 6-8pm. Tickets here.
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief