Where to, Europe? The Four Players
The far-right made gains in last week's EU elections. Now, the scramble is on to contain its rise. The four people who will have an impact on Europe's direction...
Eid Mubarak! İyi Bayramlar! 🌙✨
Two corrections:
One, I noted that the EU parliamentary elections were the first since Brexit in 2016. What I actually meant is that they were the first since Britain left the EU in 2020.
Second, a correction to a link from InSight Crime. One of the biggest issues that Sheinbaum will have to tackle is how to control the chemicals used to produce synthetic drugs, such as fentanyl and meth. Annie Pforzheimer argues that one way to do that might be through public-private partnerships. Smart. (InSight Crime)
Apologies for the errors. While it’s not an excuse, my dad has been quite ill, in and out of the hospital for months. Anyone with any ill family member knows, it’s both physically and emotionally draining, especially in the United States where the healthcare system is a f*cking disaster. I’m grateful for this newsletter, even if it does sometimes seem impossible to put out. It gives me purpose, as do the readers who depend on it. You help me keep my sanity. Thank you.
Despite the widespread pearl-clutching this week, there were no big surprises in last weekend’s EU parliamentary elections. As predicted, the center-left lost support, particularly the Greens, which lost about two dozen seats. The far-right made gains, though not enough to dominate the body.
Still, the results have electrified Europe as many scramble to contain the right’s rise. (It’s made Europe exciting again- MEEA!) The four players that are key to this are France’s Emmanuel Macron, the EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, and Donald Trump. 👀 Ugh, I know.
Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron, whose party performed poorly, surprisingly moved to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections on June 301. Macron’s party, Renaissance, came in second, with 15 percent, after Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigrant, and pro-Russia National Rally, which garnered 31 percent of the French vote. Given Macron’s abysmal poll numbers and the general tenor on the continent against incumbents, that seems to be a big risk. But it also may be a calculation — go big or go home.
The far-right has been on the rise, in France and throughout Europe, for quite some time. Macron’s instinct is to cut them down. In calling early elections, he may very well be aware that Le Pen’s party will perform well, perhaps to the point where it wins. (Macron would still remain president and has firmly said that he will not resign). That would put the National Rally in the position of governing, which is always hard — and not running as the anti-establishment candidate in the 2027 presidential election. Macron is not eligible to run for president again. Still, he would not want his successor to be Le Pen.
He may also be betting that the French, only 50 percent of whom turned out to vote in EU elections, will come out to vote in larger numbers in national ones — and that they will not vote for Le Pen and the National Rally. Peut être.
Meanwhile, eyes are also on Ursula von der Leyen and Giorgia Meloni.
Von der Leyen
Von der Leyen, a German politician who currently serves as the head of the EU Commission, the body that operates the EU, noted that the results indicated that the “center has held.” The question now is where is it headed? That will depend on who the bloc decides will head the Commission. Will they keep von der Leyen or choose someone else? By all accounts, she is the favored candidate. Her party, the European People’s Party, did win the most seats, 189, a gain of 13. But Mario Draghi’s name has been floated. He is a former Italian prime minister and former head of the European Central Bank.
If von der Leyen does get re-elected, the question will be, who will she form a coalition with? Over the past five years, she has worked with center-left parties, particularly the Greens, who, to repeat, lost big, dealing a huge blow to climate change and environmentalism efforts on the continent. Yet, perhaps in anticipation of last weekend’s results, she has also spent a lot of time in the past year with Italy’s right-leaning prime minister, Giorgia Meloni. Will von der Leyen embrace Meloni and the right? Vielleicht.
Meloni
Meloni, the daughter of a single mom and a huge fan of the Lord of the Rings, is the head of the Brothers of Italy party, an anti-immigrant, anti-LGBTQ “family values” party that traces its roots to fascist Italian dictator Mussolini. Brothers of Italy came in first in Italy, gaining 14 seats for a total of 24, positioning Meloni as the EU “queenmaker.”
Many feared Meloni’s rise to the premiership. Yet, Meloni has not followed the far-right playbook abroad2. She has supported Ukraine’s war against Russia, turning away from far-right leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and France’s Marine Le Pen, who favor Putin. Despite being a Euroskeptic, she has not worked against the body. In fact, she managed to convince Orbán to greenlight EU aid to Ukraine earlier this year, earning her the title of Orbán whisperer. (Yuck. 🤢)
Biden is a Meloni fan, after she pulled out of China’s Belt and Road initiative at the end of last year. As she hosts the G7 summit in Apulia (that’s the heel) this weekend, her star is shining bright. Will it continue? Forse.
Donald Trump
While everyone is much ado about what direction the EU will go and if the far-right will succeed in turning Europe away from Ukraine or the EU project itself, that answer won’t really come until November, when Americans vote for the next president.
The EU parliamentary elections made clear that the fear of losing democracy is not enough for voters to stay away from the far-right, especially when the far-right represents change. Voters are angry about the economy and immigration. That is definitely true in the US. If so, that would catapult Donald Trump back to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Based on what we saw the first time around, foreign policy in a second Trump administration is likely to spurn alliances, particularly NATO. That is likely to mean that he will pull US support of Ukraine against Russia. Europe would then be forced to consider whether it picks up Washington’s mantle, or if it walks away from Kyiv. We got a glimpse of the answer earlier this year, when the GOP resisted renewing aid to Ukraine. Europeans did unite to ensure that Zelensky had the resources to fight Russia. Will they do the same come January 2025? Inshallah. — Elmira
I’m opening up my column to others. Please pitch me your op-ed idea/perspective. Let’s get more female perspectives. Email me on endeavoringe@gmail.com or respond to this post.
Elsewhere in the World.....
On our radar...
G7 Summit
Leaders of the seven largest democratic economies meet in Italy this weekend for the G7 summit. Given the state of the world, there is a lot to talk about. What should the G7 prioritize? Allison McManus, Courtney Federico, and Robert Benson outline five areas, starting with using profits from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. It also includes food security, Israel-Gaza, climate change, and multilateralism. While not on their list, migration and AI are on the G7 agenda. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni invited Pope Francis to that discussion. (American Progress)
Here’s an interesting tidbit: Though China is the second largest economy in the world, it’s not invited to the Italian confab, since it’s not a democracy.
Speaking of migration, Katie Tobin notes that migration is on the G7 agenda FOR THE FIRST TIME. (Seriously people? This has been a problem since 2015…) Tobin suggests that G7 leaders consider the LA Declaration, which Biden and other Western hemisphere leaders ironed out in 2022. (Carnegie Endowment)
Also this weekend, Switzerland hosts the Summit on Peace in Ukraine. Russia won’t be there (shocker) – but there will be representatives from almost 90 countries present. Can there be “peace” without one of the parties involved? Shelby Magid takes a look and outlines what to expect. (Atlantic Council)
EU parliamentary elections
As new MEPs prepare to debut in the European Parliament, uncertainty looms over the influx of "other" lawmakers, many of whom champion disruptive ideas and lack affiliations with major political families. The rise of these peripheral parties, particularly on the right, poses challenges to the traditional pro-European groups' dominance, says Silvia Ayuso. (El Pais)
In what ways did the far-right win in European Parliamentary elections? As Ellen Ioanes points out, French PM Emmanuel Macron called for snap parliamentary elections because his party did so poorly. (Vox)
The EU elections have upended French politics, writes Tara Varma. (Brookings)
Right-wing populists made sizable gains in the EU elections. This has led many to sound the alarm about the threat to democracy. How serious is Europe’s anti-Democratic threat? Sheri Berman says it’s complicated. (Project Syndicate)
US
Did you know that the US has a Supply Chain Center? It looks at where risks and opportunities are in terms of the supply chain, writes Rana Foroohar. The only other country mapping out in great detail who is doing what: China. (Financial Times)
US President Biden’s new executive order restricts migrants' abilities to achieve asylum in the country. Jean Lantz Reisz thinks the legislation won't change the soaring rates of undocumented immigrants entering through the southern border of the country. (The Conversation)
Africa
In South Africa, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) will have to govern with the support of another party. But that shouldn’t change the country’s non-aligned foreign policy focus, says Nontobeko Hlela. (Foreign Policy)
The ANC has proposed a “national unity government.” That would be a government where all the parties who won seats would share power. Yeah, that’s tricky. Kate Hairsine looks at the pros and cons of this formula. (DW)
The civil war in Sudan rages on. More than 10 million have been displaced, as the Sudanese army and paramilitary forces fight — and commit atrocities against civilians. The International Criminal Court’s lead prosecutor, Karim Khan, has made an appeal for evidence of sexual violence, ethnically motivated assaults, and other crimes, writes Beatrice Farhat. (Al-Monitor)
Asia
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bad showing is good news for Muslims, writes Rana Ayyub. (Washington Post)
India’s elections left Modi with no choice but to form a coalition government. And the opposition is taking on an aggressive approach. It will demand greater accountability and transparency, writes Kavita Chowdhury. (The Diplomat)
The UN will host its third meeting of international envoys to Afghanistan in Doha later this month. It’s an effort to have a unified international approach to the Taliban government. While the Taliban sat out the get together in February, it has indicated it will attend this session. If it does, the international community must focus on human rights and hold the Taliban accountable for its failure to uphold them, says Lisa Curtis. (Just Security)
The Americas
Claudia Sheinbaum’s ascension as the first female leader in Mexico is exciting. Putting women in positions of power is not a cure-all for gender equality, writes Hilary Matfess. (WPR)
Listen: Similarly, Claudia Sheinbaum’s win may be a win for women, but it may jeopardize Mexico’s democracy, Denise Dresser says. Sheinbaum’s party, currently headed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has governed through polarization and eroded democratic institutions. There is a chance that Sheinbaum will chart a different course, but if she doesn’t Dresser worries that Mexico could face an autocratic future. (Foreign Affairs podcast)
In Argentina, Javier Milei’s plan to revamp the country’s economy moved forward as the country’s Senate narrowly approved his proposal to cut state spending, including pensions, privatize a number of state entities, and weaken labor rights. That prompted violent protests in the capital, Buenos Aires. Isabel Debre has more. (AP)
Europe
UK PM Rishi Sunak is calling for snap elections on July 4, a few months earlier than expected. Astha Rajvanshi breaks down Sunak’s 2024 election manifesto that was unveiled this week. (Time)
Middle East
In freeing four Israeli hostages, Israel killed 274 Palestinians and wounded 698 in the Nuseirat refugee camp last weekend. The barbaric nature of the incident was almost completely absent from Western media, writes Linah Alsaafin. (Middle East Eye)
A UN report released this week shows that both Palestinian armed groups and Israeli authorities committed war crimes and crimes against humanity on October 7 and in subsequent operations. There’s no author here, but we wanted to link to the findings from the UN itself. (UN)
It’s time for Turkey and the US to kiss and make up, says Asli Aydintasbas. With ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, Turkey, a NATO member, inevitably plays a role in both. (Foreign Affairs)
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death last month in a helicopter crash inevitably sparked conspiracy theories. Was he murdered? That’s because others who have assumed that role have either lost their positions or their lives, writes Marie Abdi. It all contributes to instability and the potential for destabilization. And that’s not good. (Middle East Institute)
Science & Climate Change
Despite a general lack of climate skepticism across Europe, the Greens — who called for a strong response to climate change — lost several seats in the recent Parliament Elections. Carissa Wong evaluates how the elections could shape climate change-related actions and goals. (Nature)
Technology
A new AI tool that accurately measures crowd sizes is shedding light on protests in Brazil. Flávia Milhorance on how this tool is proving former president Bolsonaro to be a liar after he claimed that 600,000 people attended a rally for him. The research suggests it was more like 185,000 people…😬(Rest of World)
Under the Radar
How did daycare policy become an issue in Denmark’s minority neighborhoods? Passed in 2018 by a mainstream political party, the invention is criticized as being “political” by sociologists. Compulsory daycare enrollment, a component of these laws, has faced criticism for its mandatory nature, with concerns raised about its impact on vulnerable families and communities. Gabriela Galvin with more. (New Lines Magazine)
Opportunities
My pal Christine Bader is selling “Ruck the Patriarchy” shirts as a fundraiser for the Valley Panthers High School Girls Rugby Club in Oregon, which she coaches. (Rucking is apparently a rugby thing where players fight for the ball.) Support my bad*ss friend and her bad*ass girls!
Editorial Team
Elmira Bayrasli - Editor-in-Chief
Editors:
Pin-Shan Lai
Catherine Lovizio
Emily Smith
If no one gets more than 50 percent of the vote, France will have a second round on July 7.
At home, Meloni has been fervently anti LGBTQ rights. She and her party have proposed a bill that would make surrogacy a “universal crime.” Surrogacy is banned in Italy, but under this legislation, anyone seeking surrogacy abroad would be penalized. Yeah, not cool.